It was Apocalypse Now at Polis as the Guardian‘s digital content director Emily Bell warned of extinction for swathes of UK media in the wake of the Great Crash:
“We are on the brink of two years of carnage for Western media. In the UK five nationals could go out of business and we could be left with no UK owned broadcaster outside of the BBC. We are facing complete market failure in local papers and regional radio. This is sytematic collapse not just a cyclical downturn. Even the surviving brands will have to go through a period of unprofitability.”
Of course, The Guardian is in a special position, cushioned by its other media interests and by the liberal ethos of the Scott Trust. As it becomes more convergent it has an interest in talking down organisations like Channel 4 and the BBC which have become its rivals. But she’s right.
Bell recognises that this is more than a down-turn in the economy. This is bigger than a shift in advertising. This all co-incides with mainstream media losing the attention of the public. In summary, “We are moving from an age of representation to the age of participation.”
The question is how do media organisations move into that space and how do they make money out of it? Well, Emily’s short answer is that many won’t.
Here’s the Guardian’s own report of the talk.
Here is Emily’s column on the issue.
Here’s a slightly more optimistic analysis of the US newspaper situation.
Next up in the Polis Media Leadership Dialogues at 5pm on Tuesday 21st is Peter Bazelgette who will unveil some radical ideas on copyright.
I wonder whether the media landscape – like the banking sector – has become just too big, too bulky and unable to adapt. There are, for example, far too many local radio stations in the market, many of whom are starting to become extinct.
Once the economy’s been flushed out, tidied up, and cleaned up, maybe the same will become of UK media, leaving us with a slicker, cleaner, leaner-and hopefully more diverse and creative industry…?
This could be bad news for pluralism at a local level. The best way to maintain or in many cases recreate diverse voices in a neighbourhod or community is to encourage communities to express themselves direct through online publishing by local volunteers.
We have been discussing this over here.
http://ultralocalvoice.wordpress.com/2008/10/05/talking-hyperlocal-ultralocal-workshop-at-mashup/