Determining whether or not a Brexit will inevitably lead to the breakup of the United Kingdom is anything short of an educated guess. Jan Zurawski argues that the example of the volatility of Scotland’s public opinion regarding voting on the independence of their country may as well be replicated when it comes to the European question. Undoubtedly, the Scots are the most pro-European Brits, but whether their conviction in European integration will necessarily translate into another independence campaign is a different question altogether.
In her speech on June 2, Nicola Sturgeon put a spotlight on a previously neglected aspect of the United Kingdom’s potential exit from the European Union – namely the country’s unity. The leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP) boldly claimed that a Brexit might very likely lead to a yet another Scottish independence referendum.
It would seem that following the explicit, albeit narrow, outcome in favour of remaining within the Union in the most recent Scottish independence referendum, the issue of secession would lose its political and public prominence, at least in the medium term. After all, as plainly stated by Ms Sturgeon herself, the only basis for another referendum would be “strong and consistent” public support for Scotland’s separation – and that underpinning certainly did not seem to be on the horizon to justify a new vote anytime soon.
For the First Minister of Scotland, however, Brexit would inevitably push the topic of Scottish independence right back to the top of the UK’s political agenda. Philip Stephens of the FT goes even further and asserts: “The union of the United Kingdom would not long survive Brexit”. Are they right in holding such views? In the author’s opinion, there are two key problems with their reasoning.
First of all, it relies on a rather feeble assumption that Scots will vote in favour of remaining in the EU. In such case, Ms Sturgeon believes, a Brexit would essentially violate democratic principles by forcing a decision against the will of the Scottish people. Consequently, it would inevitably turn the public opinion in the United Kingdom’s northernmost nation in favour of seceding and regaining the privilege of full national self-determination.
Interestingly, Ms Sturgeon has already attempted to safeguard against such outcome by trying – and ultimately failing – to convince David Cameron to include a “double majority” provision in the EU referendum. Under such rule, Brexit would not only be conditional upon the majority of UK’s citizens voting in favour of it, but would also require that UK’s withdrawal from the EU is supported by the majority within each of the UK’s four nations – including Scotland. One could wonder if such a rule would indeed be in line with democratic principles that Ms Sturgeon so eagerly fights for. After all, “double majority” in this case would effectively mean that some votes carry slightly larger weight than others.
Let us return though to the essence of SNP leader’s assumption, i.e. that Scots will most likely vote in favour of the UK remaining a member of the EU. Polls do seem to support her thesis. A study conducted by the British Election Study team in mid-September amongst 3,500 people in England and 1,000 each in Scotland and Wales indicates that Scots are the most pro-European out of the three by a noteworthy margin (as the figure below demonstrates).
So far, so good. The thing about public opinion when it comes to referenda though, is that it may be extremely volatile. For evidence, one does not have to look much further than last year’s referendum on Scottish independence, for which support grew from just 33% in August 2013 up to 50% (or even more at times) in the weeks immediately before the vote.
Source: BES
Ultimately, as history has shown, referenda outcomes are highly unpredictable. When it comes to the EU-related referenda specifically, the experience of the UK in 1975, as well as that of countries such as Denmark, Switzerland and Sweden over the past 25 years, further suggests that final results can be anything but anticipated.
Taking this into account, any outspoken conviction about Scots ultimately voting against a Brexit must be met with a dose of scepticism. This is especially the case when one acknowledges that the date of the EU referendum has not even been set yet and the renegotiation has only just begun. Predicting outcomes at this stage then is truly nothing more than an educated guess, which may easily turn out to be incorrect. If a Brexit indeed occurs, it may very well be that it is with the support of a Scottish majority. In such case, the impact of Britain’s withdrawal from the EU would have a minor impact on the campaign for Scottish independence.
The second problem with Ms Sturgeon’s argument is that she exaggerates the extent to which Scots will “inevitably think [that] perhaps it’s time to be independent so that we can preserve our membership in the EU”, if a Brexit indeed occurs in spite of Scottish citizens’ contrasting position. Such reasoning rests on a shaky foundation, which requires that pro-EU Scots in large numbers will build up a strong commitment to independence in the immediate aftermath of announcing a Brexit.
The Union Flag, Flag of Scotland, and Flag of Europe flying outside the Scottish Parliament.
Photo by Calum MacÙisdean Rights under CC BY-SA 2.5.
That may not necessarily be the case. A Euro-enthusiastic voter may value Scotland remaining a part of the UK’s union more than the UK staying in the European Union. People prioritise among their political beliefs and many of the Scots who take part in the EU referendum may not attach as much importance to their EU membership as they do to the stability of the UK’s union. It does not follow then that those who are pro-Union and pro-EU will seamlessly change their view on Scottish independence in the event of UK’s withdrawal from the EU. Ms Sturgeon’s prediction ignores the complexity and layers of people’s commitments to various political identities and values.
Ms Sturgeon speaks with sense when she proclaims that another referendum on Scottish independence can only be held if there is a “strong and consistent” support of the majority of the electorate for leaving. At the moment that support is anything but the above. Whether it will become so in the aftermath of announcing a Brexit is incredibly difficult to determine, at this stage, as it depends on a whole network of dynamic and interconnected factors. This is not to say that the UK’s withdrawal from the EU will certainly have little impact on the country’s political and territorial unity. But those who equate a Brexit with an inevitable breakup of the UK should carefully reassess their conviction.
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The article originally appeared on the LSE BrexitVote blog and gives the views of the author, and not the position of the London School of Economics and Political Science. Please read our comments policy before posting.
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Jan Zurawski is a Freelance Contributor at the Economist Intelligence Unit, where he covers the latest political, economic and financial developments in Poland, Ukraine and Estonia. He is a graduate of SOAS and the Global Politics programme at the LSE.
The Constitution of the UK is a reserved matter and the Westminster Parliament is sovereign. The SNP can stamp their feet and bleat as much as they like, but without the consent of Westminster (which they won’t get)any future poll on Scottish secession will be legally meaningless.
When Scotland decisively voted to remain part of the UK in 2014, it did so in the knowledge there are certain issues that will be decided on a UK-wide basis. Our membership of the EU is one of them.
While I agree that Brexit may not be a ‘one-off’ trigger for another vote on Independence, it is not correct to say that there has been no change in attitudes since the first Independence referendum.
Support for Independence continues to climb slowly, and this is a generational shift. It’s slow, true. But there is only one direction of travel.
“there has been a small but perceptible swing to Yes during the course of the last year.” John Curtice
http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2015/09/scotland-a-year-on-a-divided-nation/
I seriously doubt even with some poll volatility that Scotland would swing towards ‘out’. The simple reason being that ‘out’ is being driven by the kind of right wing UKIP/Tory political groups that tend to put most Scots off. I’d be quite surprised if support for ‘IN’ didn’t grow significantly as the media spotlight begins to focus on the likes of Nigel Farage.
As for independence, whether or not it would swing public opinion enough towards a future ‘YES’ is hard to say. It would likely have some immediate knee-jerk effect due to sheer indignation. But nevertheless a departure from the EU would count as a major constitutional change and would act as a valid ground for a re-run. If the SNP ran at a Holyrood eletion with a clear manifesto pledge and won another majority it’s hard to see how they could be denied now precedent has been established.
There is no ‘precedent’ in our constitution because no parliament can bind its successor.
I’m not sure why so many people outside Scotland have been convinced by Nicola Sturgeon that a Brexit will inevitably translate as immediate support for independence. I don’t believe it will, indeed I know of many who supported the SNP in the General Election however did not and still do not support independence.
There’s a big difference between people voting for a party that they believe will do the most for Scottish interests and people voting for the SNP largely because of the indepednece stance. I don’t think this is being taken into account in the wider media.
Also, because the SNP remain so prevalent up here then there remains far more debate about the SNP than you’d normally get day to day. It’s a big change having them in such dominance. However absolutely no one I know has changed their position on independence since the referendum and therefore for me there are no indicators that the appetite for independence has increased in any way.
Finally, I also find the SNP in a massively contradicted position where they spout the dreams of independence employing soundbites involving words like ‘destiny’ and ‘freedom’. Yet at the same time they are positively foaming at the mouth when it comes to EU membership. Correct me if I’m wrong but Scotland as an independent country and new member of the EU would not enjoy the same relationship as the existing UK and would likely face far steeper expectations of political, judicial and financial integration within the EU.
What is independence I ask?