The UK government announced on July 16 that it had decided to end the transition period to Individual Electoral Registration early. The Electoral Commission had recommended that it did not, and thereby allow some 1.9 million people who would otherwise be removed to remain on the electoral roll for a further year. The Commission’s reasons for this concern the […]
At the 2015 general election, the Conservative incumbent MP in Watford won 24,400 votes: over the preceding 15 months his campaign received major donations totalling over £312,000 – or nearly £13 per vote. Ron Johnston, Charles Pattie and David Cutts look at these donations within the wider context of Tory fund-raising for their constituency campaigns.
The media made much of […]
Most discussion of the UK’s 2015 election so far has focused on the unexpected Conservative majority. But Charles Pattie and Ron Johnston reveal another remarkable story hidden just below the surface. The electoral system not only deals unfairly with the smaller parties, it is also biased in how it treats the Conservatives relative to Labour. But the nature of that bias […]
Few analyses of the election result have got beyond the headline outcome and started to unpick the detail. Ron Johnston, Charles Pattie and David Manley do this for the pattern of marginal seats before and after the contest and cone up with some highly significant findings.
The result of the 2015 general election in Great Britain can be summarised in […]
Will the rules for the redistribution of Parliamentary constituencies be changed by the next government – as recommended by a House of Commons Committee? Or will another disruptive exercise reducing the number of MPs begin within a year of the 2015 election, as currently scheduled? As Ron Johnston, David Rossiter and Charles Pattie show, there are no clear commitments in the […]
There are fewer people registered to vote in 2015 than there were in 2010: is that to Labour’s advantage?
The 2010 general election result was considerably biased in Labour’s favour: if they and Conservatives had won equal shares of the vote total, Labour could have obtained as many as 54 more seats than their Tory opponents. This bias partly reflected unequal electorates across the country’s constituencies. Recently published data show that the number of registered electors nationally has […]
Much is being written about the fragmentation of the British party system in the run-up to the 2015 general election, but little about how that is reflected across the country’s constituencies where the election will be won and lost. To some, a three-party system had developed (four-party in Scotland and Wales) in the decades leading up to the 2010 […]
How to balance the competing demands of arithmetic, continuity and geography in designing constituencies
The review of Parliamentary constituencies that ended prematurely in 2013 would have resulted in most of the 600 seats contested at the 2015 general election being very different from the current 650. Another review – again reducing the number of MPs to 600 – is scheduled to start in 2016, preparatory for the 2020 general election. But if the […]