The 2017 general election saw a largely unremarked geographical extension to opinion polling, with three analysts publishing estimates of which party was likely to win in each of the country’s constituencies. Ron Johnston, Kelvyn Jones, David Manley, Charles Pattie, Todd Hartman, and David Rossiter have analysed their accuracy and considered the implications of that development for the conduct of […]
In April 2016 in two contributions to this blog Ron Johnston, Kelvyn Jones and David Manley predicted the likely geography of support for Brexit in the EU referendum. In this concluding piece they compare their predictions to the result. The general pattern of their predictions turned out to be very accurate, but regional differences were more pronounced than anticipated, with variations in both […]
In their recent analysis, Ron Johnston, Kelvyn Jones and David Manley used a large body of YouGov polling data to explore which social groups are most likely to vote Leave in the upcoming EU Referendum and where they live, producing a clear geography of support for Brexit. Here, they explore how differential turnout rates across those groups could alter […]
In a recent Guardian article, Simon Jenkins suggested that voter decisions regarding the EU referendum will be made on the basis of gut instinct alone, and that personal characteristics and previous party support provide no guide. Using a new modelling strategy applied to a large body of YouGov opinion poll data, Ron Johnston, Kelvyn Jones and David Manley address Jenkins’ claim, and find it wanting. The young and the well-qualified […]
Few analyses of the election result have got beyond the headline outcome and started to unpick the detail. Ron Johnston, Charles Pattie and David Manley do this for the pattern of marginal seats before and after the contest and cone up with some highly significant findings.
The result of the 2015 general election in Great Britain can be summarised in […]
Michael Gove and David Laws have changed the examination system for post-16 students at English schools and colleges, and in doing so have altered the basis on which universities can make their conditional offers to applicants. To justify that change, they commissioned in-house research – published in May 2013. That research appears to be statistically flawed, however; Ron Johnston, […]