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The changing size and shape of the UK state ahead of GE2019

Matthew Whittaker explains how the spending restraint of the austerity period and the political priorities pursued by successive governments have placed major strain on a number of public services. He argues that, as a result, the size of the state has changed over the past decade and so too has its shape.

Political consensus is a rare commodity these days. […]

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    This general election is a choice between the end of democracy or the end of neoliberalism

This general election is a choice between the end of democracy or the end of neoliberalism

In this general election, Britain faces a paradigm shift, argues Abby Innes: the essential choice is between a government of the economic hard right that will complete the already-failed supply-side revolution of the last forty years, and a government willing to implement a Green New Deal that in turn will end the era of Neoliberalism. She writes that we […]

The British public and NATO: still a strong alliance?

As the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation celebrates its 70th year, Ben Clements analyses evidence on the views of the British public towards the alliance. He finds that, over time, Britons have generally been consistent in supporting NATO.

Public opinion towards NATO has been given added topicality in recent years for several reasons. First, worsening relations between NATO countries and Russia over […]

Citizen forecasting 2019: a big win for the Conservatives

The recent failures of voter intention polls to predict UK election results has led to public scepticism about the usefulness of polls. Andreas Murr, Mary Stegmaier, and Michael S. Lewis-Beck deploy an alternative approach, which focuses on which party opinion poll respondents expect to win the election (rather than just on their voting intentions). This ‘voter expectations’ model predicts […]

Five reasons to vote in a safe seat

Why bother to vote in a safe seat, knowing your vote won’t make a difference to that constituency’s outcome? Jonathan Birch offers five key reasons why voting makes a difference to the legitimacy and stability of parliamentary democracy, even when individual seats don’t change hands.

Elections can be pretty demoralising if you live in a safe seat. Where I live, […]

Women and gender in the 2019 party manifestos

Claire Annesley, Francesca Gains, and Anna Sanders offer an overview of manifesto pledges concerning women. They conclude that, while most parties are taking the diversity of women and their interests seriously, it is difficult to judge the value of their offer. 
Half of the electorate are women. Research has consistently shown that women are more likely to be floating voters […]

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    Different methods, similar outcome: comparing the Poll of Polls with MRP

Different methods, similar outcome: comparing the Poll of Polls with MRP

The star of the show in 2017’s general election polling landscape was YouGov’s MRP model, which produced remarkably accurate estimates of the results in seats across the country. The equivalent model for this year’s election, explains Joe Greenwood, produces quite similar estimates to approaches based on the average figures from standard national polls.

At an excellent event on ‘Reading the […]

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    The UK’s housing crisis: what should the next government do?

The UK’s housing crisis: what should the next government do?

The real problem behind the ongoing housing crisis is unresponsive supply, write Paul Cheshire and Christian Hilber. They explain that the solution is not hard to fathom: to build more houses, there first has to be land, and then an incentive to build on that land. This solution nevertheless requires radical change in the inertia of UK housing policy.

Since […]