General Election 2015 Blog

Inequality: Are we really ‘all in this together’?

In his March 2015 Budget speech, Chancellor George Osborne emphasised that austerity measures over the 2010-15 Parliament had been fairly shared: inequality had fallen and the British people were ‘all in this together’. In this article, Gabriel Zucman examines how the UK stands in terms of the levels and changes in inequality of pre-tax and benefit income and net […]

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    Party manifestos fail to offer clear commitments on the redrawing of Parliamentary boundaries

Party manifestos fail to offer clear commitments on the redrawing of Parliamentary boundaries

Will the rules for the redistribution of Parliamentary constituencies be changed by the next government – as recommended by a House of Commons Committee? Or will another disruptive exercise reducing the number of MPs begin within a year of the 2015 election, as currently scheduled? As Ron Johnston, David Rossiter and Charles Pattie show, there are no clear commitments in the […]

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    Will the electoral system continue to ‘skew’ towards Labour in 2015?

Will the electoral system continue to ‘skew’ towards Labour in 2015?

With less than one week to go until polling day, and irrespective of the fact that the polls are extremely close (they are), we should focus on whether the electoral system helps one or other of the two largest parties, argues Tom Lubbock. In recent years the system has had a skew to Labour resulting from its biases. Will […]

The coalition myth

Coalition politics remains relatively unfamiliar to British politicians, despite the experience of the past five years. Throughout the election campaign, the main party leaders have poured scorn on the idea of another coalition after May 7th, and have given the public little detail on their preferences for different potential coalition partners. In this post, Marie-Noelle Loewe points to evidence from across […]

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    Could the Conservatives and the Lib Dems find common ground on fiscal policy?

Could the Conservatives and the Lib Dems find common ground on fiscal policy?

Is there enough common ground in the Conservative and Lib Dem fiscal plans to permit a renewal of their vows? In this post, Matthew Whittaker discusses the main differences between the two parties in terms of fiscal policy, and suggests that, given sufficient desire and flexibility, these parties may well be able to navigate through significant political differences.

Amid recent […]

For Wales, do not see England (or Scotland)

Throughout the short campaign, this blog has been publishing a series of posts that focus on each of the electoral regions in the UK. In this post, Jac Larner discusses the key things to look out for in Wales.  

The story of electoral politics in Wales has been one defined by single-party hegemony. Since 1935 this hegemony has remained in the firm grip of […]

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    Working class votes and Conservative losses: solving the UKIP puzzle

Working class votes and Conservative losses: solving the UKIP puzzle

In this article, Geoffrey Evans and Jonathan Mellon examine the voting history of UKIP supporters, finding that the party is attracting, primarily, disaffected former Labour voters from the Conservatives and elsewhere, and that the working class basis of UKIP has been markedly over-stated. On the whole, however, it is the Conservatives, not Labour, who have most to fear from UKIP.

The idea that many […]

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    Political-Economy Model Predicts a Hung Parliament with Labour in the Lead

Political-Economy Model Predicts a Hung Parliament with Labour in the Lead

Last month, election forecasters presented preliminary predictions for the British election at the LSE. In this post, Mary Stegmaier and Laron Williams, both from the University of Missouri, present their political-economy model of party support. Their forecast, based on data 3 months before the election, predicts that Labour will win the highest vote share in Britain, but that no […]