General Election 2015 Blog

From Devo-max to West Lothian-Max

The changes to Westminster politics in Scotland in 2015 are likely to be without historical precedent. In this post, James Dennison discusses the implications of these changes in the context of the “West Lothian” question. He argues that the election of a large number of SNP MPs is likely to greatly exacerbate tensions that were previously dormant, and could […]

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    The UK election spells the end for the biggest ‘law’ in political science

The UK election spells the end for the biggest ‘law’ in political science

Voters are again looking beyond the traditional two-party system and look set to put paid to a famous proposition of political science, ‘Duverger’s Law’, writes Patrick Dunleavy.

Every election held under “first past the post” (FPTP) voting in the USA produces perfect two-party outcomes – no party except the Democrats and Republicans gets a look-in. Yet elections held under the same […]

The North West – an important battleground

Throughout the short campaign, this blog has been publishing a series of posts that focus on each of the electoral regions in the UK. In this post, Andrew Russell discusses the key things to look out for in the North West.  

North West England is an important battleground for the 2015 general election. Of the region’s 72 Westminster seats, 26 of them could […]

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    In a multi-party political environment, the First-Past-The-Post electoral system may mitigate polarisation

In a multi-party political environment, the First-Past-The-Post electoral system may mitigate polarisation

In this post, Niall Hughes argues that FPTP electoral system performs much better in the context of multi-party politics. Crucially, in a general election a voter’s preferred candidate will depend on the results in other constituencies. As a result, when three parties compete in a general election and voters care about national policy, the problem of polarisation under FPTP is mitigated.

In any election […]

  • Permalink Chris Gilson takes you through the General Election night 2010. We'll be closely monitoring results as they come in until 1am.  You will need to press F5 to refresh the page to see our coverage. You can also follow the LSE's Election Night event on a live webcast here: http://www2.lse.ac.uk/publicEvents/lseElectionNight2010.aspx _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________                  23:47 01:36 -We're closing up shop now. It's looking a lot like our last prediction will be close to the result - we'll update tomorrow morning.... 01:20 - After 10 seats, the picture seems to be settling down around the exit poll seat shares. 01:14 - The Conservatives have held on to Putney, with a 9.9 per cent swing from Labour to the Conservatives. 01:13 - The Staggers has more on voters being turned away from polling stations. 01:11 - Torbay has just been called for the Liberal Democrats - there has been a small Lib Dem/Tory swing of 1.1. per cent. 01:03 - Seven seats declared and we seem to be moving back to the exit poll numbers. Conservatives are back down to a projected 315 seats against Labour 247. Still the Lib Dems are struggling to get above 60. What has happened to the Lib Dem support? 00:58 - Labour hold the two seats of Darlington and Durham North, both with swings of over 8 per cent to the Conservatives from Labour. 00:55 - Poll of Thornbury and Yate predicts a Lib Dem win, but a 4.3 per cent swing from the Lib Dems to the Tories. 00:53- BBC is reporting Peter Robinson, leader of the DUP, has been defeated in Belfast East. 00:48 - Nick  Robinson is saying of the voting problems today:
    Voters locked out of polling stations, ballot papers running out, scuffles inside polling stations, sit-ins, the police called, some able to vote after 10pm while others were blocked from doing so. What a tragedy that, after a campaign which engaged and energised many who were previously cynical about politics, tonight's story may be being over-shadowed by the extraordinary revelation that Britain cannot competently run the most basic part of the democratic process.
    00:35 - Two more seats due to declare at 12:45am - Birmingham Edgbaston and Birmingham Ladywood. We'll give you more seat projections once they do. 00:30 - BBC reporting that Caroline Lucas may have won in Brighton Pavillion - to win she would need a 14% swing from Labour, who currently hold it with 36% 00:26 - We've got a quick list of constuencies where there have been problems with voting today:
    • Hull
    • Islington
    • Lewisham
    • Romford
    • Liverpool Wavertree
    • Surrey South West
    • Liverpool Riverside
    00:22 -  Counting  in a poll centre in Londonderry has been suspended following a security alert - http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/liveevent/ 00:16 - The exit poll has been silent on percentages thus far - we've decoded the seat figures as best we can, and we estimate the following: Con: 38 per cent, or just under; Lab: 29 per cent; Lib Dem: 24 per cent. 00:06 - PA sources are apparently reporting that the Tories will claim Battersea  - if so, that is a sure sign of a very good night for the Conservatives. 23:56 - Sunderland Central just called - the third North region seat. Labour move to 3 seats. And these percentages calm the picture somewhat. Not as big a loss for Labour in this seat (only 4 per cent). The Tories increase their share by 5.5 per cent. This takes the Conservative seat share down slightly to 317. Lib Dems are still about where they started in terms of seats. 23:50 - BBC television election coverage has dropped it's ticker of the exit poll results - does anyone know if this is normal for this time of night? 23:47 - BBC is reporting a strengthening pound on the possibility of a large enough swing for a Conservative majority.  23:39 - Sunderland Central results: Conservatives: 12,770 Labour: 19,495 Lib Dems: 7,191 - Labour Holds. Tories needed an 11.6 per cent swing to win this. 23:37 - The second seat accentuates the Tory increase and Labour drop - despite the second Labour seat win. This was a very safe seat for Labour, however it does not bode well for Labour nationally. The average decrease for Labour in vote share is 14 per cent after 2 seats. Our estimates suggest that Conservatives would have 337 to Labour 216. 23:35 - Sunderland Central expected soon. 23:29 - Feeding these numbers into our prediction machine, we get Con: 337, Lab: 219, LD: 67. BBC is saying that if this is repeated across the country, then this will be the 'biggest swing since 1945'. 23:26 - Washington and Sunderland West results - LD - 6,382, Con- 8,157, Lab- 19,615 - this is a 16 per cent drop for Labour, 7 per cent increase for the Conservatives. 23:25 - Washington and Sunderland West declaring. 22:17 - Photos from the last panel are now available. [caption id="attachment_2215" align="alignleft" width="318" caption="Patrick Dunleavy, Helen Margetts and Simon Hix"][/caption]

    [caption id="attachment_2216" align="aligncenter" width="355" caption="Patrick Dunleavy and Zack Cooper"][/caption] 23:13 - Sky has revised their exit poll Con: 305, Lab: 255 LD: 61 O:29 23:00 - We've done a quick analysis of the Houghton and Sunderland results - Labour win with a clear majority but a loss over 11 per cent. Conservatives increase their vote share by 5 per cent. What does mean for seat allocation? Our own estimates suggest that this would take the Tories even higher than the exit poll (up to 317). Labour drop further in terms of seats to around 240. And Libs would edge up to around 63. * Please note that these results are very preliminary and will be subject to revison as the night progresses. [table id=74/] 22:54 - Houghton and Sunderland declare! Labour wins by 11,000 votes. 19,137 to 8,147 for the Tories, 5,292 for the Lib Dems. Peter Kellner of YouGov, on the BBC says turnout in this seat is low at 55%. 22:52 - Houghton and Sunderland are now 4 minutes behind their record of 48 minutes in 2005. Sounds like they are about to declare now. 22:49 - Our experts inital view: Conservative's seat scores about right, final result will have the Lib Dems on more than 59, but at Labour's expense. 22:47 - Poss. the most odd Tweet of the night so far:
    Sweet jesus. Schwarzenegger has called to congratulate Cameron. What ON?? https://twitter.com/DanRebellato/status/13509745603
    22:43 - Also on the BBC - Alan Johnson says it's "hung parliament' territory, not conceding defeat territory" - he's happy for Labour to Work with the Lib Dems - does this mean he expects the Tories' result to fall? 22:43 - Breaking News from the BBC -
    Police have been called to some polling stations to move on people who wanted to vote but couldn't because they were still queuing outside at 10pm. In the Manchester Withington constituency, about 200 people were turned away. A spokesman for the returning officer for Manchester said: "The law states that the doors to polling stations must be closed at 10pm exactly, and no-one may be issued with a ballot paper after 10pm.
    22:40 - Telegraph reporting voters being turned away in Sheffield because of high turnout - Sky News reporting 150-200 voters still waiting to vote in Sheffield. 22:33 - ConservativeHome has David Cameron saying - "'This is a decisive rejection of Labour. We can govern with this result.'" 22:28 - Houghton and Sunderland south must declare in the next 17 minutes, if they are to beat their 2005 record. 22:25 - Vince Cable says exit polls are 'very strange' 22:17 - We think these exit polls are startling. Based on 18,000 voters and around 130 polling stations. Conservative seats are over 300, close to the most generous LSE estimation (310). But what has happened to the Lib Dems? Can they actually lose seats? This may signify a certain level of Labour resistance, particularly against Lib Dem gains. 22:16 - FT's Westminster blog talks about the spin that's already occuring with this exit poll:
    The spin is happening already. Harriet Harman, deputy Labour leader, says the exit poll shows the country “hasn’t turned overwhelmingly to the Conservatives”. Michael Gove, the shadow education secretary spins it another way. He says it suggests “a comprehensive rejection of Gordon Brown and a strong vote for change”. They both say it is a time for politicians to show “humility”. I doubt that call will be heeded for long.
    22:11 - Iain Dale predicts BBC/ITN/Sky to have egg on their faces. He will "run naked down Whitehall" if the Lib Dems end up with only 59 seats. 22:08 - Real upset from expectations - Lib Dems  far lower than expected - fewer MPs than 2005 22:05 - EXIT POLL - CON: 307 LAB:255 LD:59 O:29 21:56 - Rumours the MORI poll has been leaked, and that's affecting betting odds - http://twitter.com/electionpredict/status/13507550413 21:54 - Tony Travers - we may not know what the result is until well into the night; one of the most unpredictable elections in recent memory. 21:46 - Simon Hix talks Conservative seat probabilites. 21:41 - Charlie Beckett - most exciting election in Britain in half a century  - and media has been truly significant - a crucial factor in election dynamics. ot necessarily an Internet election, but certainly an interactive one. 21:35 - 130 opinion polls in the campaign so far.  Score for 'Other parties' expected to rise over 9 per cent. 21:33 - Patrick Dunleavy speaking - he only expects two seats to change hands. 21:33 - Settling down for the first discussion - Beckett, Dunleavy, Hix and Travers - Overview of the Campaign - http://tinyurl.com/yeglb7n 21:00 - Welcome to the LSE Election Experts' live blog of Election Night 2010. We'll be here for the next four hours, looking at seats as they come in, and giving predictions for the outcome. We'll also have comments from our panel of speakers for the evening, as well as looking at commentary (and maybe some rumour!) from the rest of the blogging community. Already today, there have been reports of high-turnouts at polling stations, with some bookmakers predicting a turn-out of over 70 per cent. Some are saying 71 per cent. Turnout was also about 71 per cent in 1997, and has not been above 80 per cent since 1951. Stuart Wilks-Heeg who is a contributor to this blog is picking 64 per cent.">Gallery

    A real housing crisis but only fake solutions on offer

A real housing crisis but only fake solutions on offer

Overall, the manifestos confirm that all parties are unwilling to face up to the political problems they perceive would follow if they advocated solutions that might effectively address the crisis of housing supply. The illness is real but all that is on offer is snake oil; displacement activities treating some symptoms but not the underlying causes and – paradoxically […]

Paying for higher education

University financing has again emerged as a key battleground issue. Should fees be regulated lower and if so, how will the cost be financed? Gill Wyness explores these questions.

The UK has dramatically increased the supply of graduates over the last four decades. The proportion of workers with higher education has risen from only 4.7 per cent in 1979 to 28.5 per cent in […]

The NHS: Promises and productivity

In the general election debate about healthcare, all the parties are seeking to portray an NHS protected from major public sector expenditure cuts, with expansion in some areas. But according to a new report from Alistair McGuire and John Van Reenen, this is only going to be viable through further efficiency savings of some kind – and even then […]

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    LGBT MPs and Candidates in the British General Election May 2015: The State of Play

LGBT MPs and Candidates in the British General Election May 2015: The State of Play

The UK has led the way in the inclusion of out LGBT politicians in Westminster. In this post, Andrew Reynolds presents the findings of a recent report which discusses LGBT candidates and politicians in the context of the upcoming election. You can see a full version of the report here

Marriage equality was one of the defining issues of the last British parliament, and […]