General Election 2015 Blog

Predicting the polls – April

Each month, the team from electionforecast.co.uk compare new constituency polls as they are released to their estimates of what polls would show in those constituencies. This allows for an assessment of the accuracy of their modeling approach. More information about the overall model can be found here. The results presented in this post use all constituency polls released by Lord Ashcroft in April so far.

For the past […]

Reconciling to other forecasts

The assumptions behind various election forecasting models lead to different central predictions for the outcome on May 7th. In this post, Chris Hanretty, one of the team at electionforecast.co.uk, evaluates two assumptions that differ across three of the main academic forecasting projects for the election in 2015. 

See electionforecast.co.uk’s recent “Predicting the polls” piece here.

As the several and varied posts on […]

Focus on… the South West

In this post, the team at electionforecast.co.uk discuss their current predictions for the South West. They find that the Liberal Democrats are more likely than not to lose over half the seats that they currently hold in the region, with most of these seats going to the Conservatives. Also, as in other regions in the UK, the smaller, ‘insurgent’ […]

Scotland – an SNP Tsunami?

Throughout the short campaign, this blog will be publishing a series of posts that focus on each of the electoral regions in the UK. In this post, Nicola McEwen discusses the key things to look out for in Scotland. 

Whereas Scottish Parliamentary elections give a platform to Scotland-centred issues, Westminster General Elections in Scotland are usually very British affairs. Especially since devolution […]

The Loser Takes It All – The SNP after the referendum

The independence referendum has given SNP support a level and fervency that makes them a unique force in British politics, writes James Dennison.

If a political party were ever lucky enough to find itself in the SNP’s current position in Scotland, but across the entire United Kingdom, it would be heading towards the biggest landslide in British political history. The […]

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    On the dynamics of leader effects in British general elections

On the dynamics of leader effects in British general elections

The true extent of party leaders’ influence on the way individuals vote needs to take into account election-specific evaluations of political parties as well, says Anthony Mughan. Among other conclusions on the dynamics of leader effects, his research finds that partisans are more likely to defect to another party when, in the election, they like that party’s leader more […]

The South West – contest by contest

Throughout the short campaign, this blog will be publishing a series of posts that focus on each of the electoral regions in the UK. In this post, Ron Johnston discusses the key things to look out for in the South West. He suggests that it is unlikely that there will be substantial change – with Labour the main beneficiary of any shifts.

See electionforecast.co.uk’s predictions for […]

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    Who forms the UK government in the event of a hung parliament?

Who forms the UK government in the event of a hung parliament?

The polls continue to predict a hung parliament after the May 2015 election in which more than one potential government could be viable. In this context, Petra Schleiter and Valerie Belu ask how government formation negotiations will proceed and which actors will have a privileged role in the bargaining process?

When several alternative governments are viable, negotiations are in practice guided by constitutional principles that […]