Harold D Clarke

  • Permalink Leader of the Conservative Party David Cameron discusses the Budget on the eve of the Budget with George Osborne (L) Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer, Theresa May Shadow Secretary of State for Work and Pensions and Shadow Minister for Women and Kenneth Clarke (Far Right) Shadow Secretary of State for Business, Tuesday March 23, 2010Gallery

    How the Conservatives’ austerity rhetoric won them GE2015, and almost cost them GE2017

How the Conservatives’ austerity rhetoric won them GE2015, and almost cost them GE2017

Paul Whiteley, Harold D. Clarke, and Marianne Stewart explain why austerity is no longer an election winner – neither economically nor politically. They argue that David Cameron’s government reaped political rewards through its austerity rhetoric, but the strategy backfired in the next election, when many voters believed a Conservative government would impose more hardship on them.

In our book on the 2015 general election we […]

  • Permalink Gallery

    Leave was always in the lead: why the polls got the referendum result wrong

Leave was always in the lead: why the polls got the referendum result wrong

By analysing 121 opinion polls, Harold D. Clarke, Matthew Goodwin, and Paul Whiteley outline what happened with the EU referendum survey results. They explain why internet surveys performed substantially better than telephone ones – contrary to the post-2015 General Election ‘wisdom’ that telephone surveys should be preferred. Underlying trends showed that once methodological artefacts are controlled, Leave was almost certainly ahead of Remain […]

  • Permalink Gallery

    Representative samples are an issue for the pollsters – but so are respondents who lie

Representative samples are an issue for the pollsters – but so are respondents who lie

The British Polling Council recently published their report about what went wrong with the polls in the 2015 general election. The report dismissed problems associated with voter registration, question wording, postal voting and mode of interviewing and opted for unrepresentative samples as the key factor in explaining what happened. Here, Paul Whiteley and Harold Clarke make the case for […]