In this post, Ruth Dixon argues that, in future elections, measures of party leader satisfaction are worth looking at in more detail, as standard voting intention polls led many forecasters astray in 2015.
As the plot below makes clear, satisfaction with party leaders of the two main parties would have predicted the outcome of the last nine UK general elections, […]
In this post, Chris Hanretty, Ben Lauderdale and Nick Vivyan investigate the predictive performance of the betting markets relative to their electionforecast.co.uk forecasting model.
The failure of the opinion polls to accurately estimate national vote share has led some to suggest (here, here) that we should instead look to betting markets as a way of eliciting information about election outcomes.
National betting markets […]
Historically, the electoral system has tended to help Labour in the way it translates votes into seats. In 2015, the skew changed, giving a significant advantage to the Conservatives, argues Tom Lubbock.
A week before the election I wrote an article on this blog setting out how the electoral system was set to benefit each of three parties based on the forecast results […]
In many respects, Labour needed this crushing electoral defeat to rebrand and re-position, writes Ranj Alaaldin. The absence of a strong narrative of conviction from Labour allowed the party to be effectively challenged by UKIP as the party of the ordinary person and the Conservatives as the party of aspiration.
The Conservative Party has obliterated Labour and is back in government with a majority […]
At 10pm on election day, the ballots will close, and the counting will begin. It may be many hours before it becomes clear which party has the most seats in the new parliament, and many days until we know which parties will form the next government. However, shortly after the 10 o’clock deadline, broadcasters will release a forecast based on […]
The growth in minor party support in the 2015 general election looks set to create very difficult tactical voting dilemmas in some constituencies. Meg Russell reflects on how a move to the Alternative Vote (AV), which was rejected in a referendum in 2011, might have eased such dilemmas – suggesting that a messy election result could unexpectedly put AV […]
The 2011 Alternative Vote (AV) referendum was rejected by a substantial majority of the British public, and was opposed by the Conservative party. In this post, Chris Hanretty, one of the team at electionforecast.co.uk, investigates whether the Conservatives would have benefitted in the 2015 election from an AV electoral system. He finds that it is likely that the AV […]
In this post, the team at electionforecast.co.uk discuss their predictions for the East and West Midlands. They find that the battle between the Conservatives and Labour to become the plurality party is likely to be decided in the Midlands.
See Cherry Miller’s analysis of the campaign in the (West) Midlands here.
The 105 constituencies that comprise the East and West Midlands […]
This general election is a choice between the end of democracy or the end of neoliberalism
Different methods, similar outcome: comparing the Poll of Polls with MRP
Five reasons to vote in a safe seat
Citizen forecasting 2019: a big win for the Conservatives
Forecasting the 2019 General Election using the PM and the Pendulum model
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