Paul Whiteley

  • Permalink Leader of the Conservative Party David Cameron discusses the Budget on the eve of the Budget with George Osborne (L) Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer, Theresa May Shadow Secretary of State for Work and Pensions and Shadow Minister for Women and Kenneth Clarke (Far Right) Shadow Secretary of State for Business, Tuesday March 23, 2010Gallery

    How the Conservatives’ austerity rhetoric won them GE2015, and almost cost them GE2017

How the Conservatives’ austerity rhetoric won them GE2015, and almost cost them GE2017

Paul Whiteley, Harold D. Clarke, and Marianne Stewart explain why austerity is no longer an election winner – neither economically nor politically. They argue that David Cameron’s government reaped political rewards through its austerity rhetoric, but the strategy backfired in the next election, when many voters believed a Conservative government would impose more hardship on them.

In our book on the 2015 general election we […]

  • Permalink Gallery

    Leave was always in the lead: why the polls got the referendum result wrong

Leave was always in the lead: why the polls got the referendum result wrong

By analysing 121 opinion polls, Harold D. Clarke, Matthew Goodwin, and Paul Whiteley outline what happened with the EU referendum survey results. They explain why internet surveys performed substantially better than telephone ones – contrary to the post-2015 General Election ‘wisdom’ that telephone surveys should be preferred. Underlying trends showed that once methodological artefacts are controlled, Leave was almost certainly ahead of Remain […]

  • Permalink Gallery

    Representative samples are an issue for the pollsters – but so are respondents who lie

Representative samples are an issue for the pollsters – but so are respondents who lie

The British Polling Council recently published their report about what went wrong with the polls in the 2015 general election. The report dismissed problems associated with voter registration, question wording, postal voting and mode of interviewing and opted for unrepresentative samples as the key factor in explaining what happened. Here, Paul Whiteley and Harold Clarke make the case for […]

  • Permalink Gallery

    Douglas Carswell’s defection to UKIP may have a significant impact on the Conservatives’ 2015 hopes

Douglas Carswell’s defection to UKIP may have a significant impact on the Conservatives’ 2015 hopes

Today Conservative MP Douglas Carswell announced that he will be leaving the Tories and will call a by-election that he will contest as a member of UKIP. Paul Whiteley writes that it will be a hard fought by-election campaign but UKIP can win it, making it less likely that the Conservatives can win the general election next year if they do so.

Douglas Carswell, the Conservative […]

Investing in higher education, including the social sciences, would promote growth in Britain

Paul Whiteley points out that there is no evidence that supports the argument that STEM subjects provide an additional boost to growth on top of investments in universities in general. Despite higher than average enrolment in sciences, for instance, Britain has lower average rates of growth. More strikingly, Britain under-invests in higher education relative to other countries. Since it plays a key […]

The new higher education fees regime could be damaging for the UK economy

Paul Whiteley discusses his research into the relationship between enrolments in higher education and economic growth. He finds a significant positive correlation, meaning that the cuts in higher education funding could have negative implications for future economic growth.  After the 2010 general election the newly elected coalition government in Britain introduced a radical new policy for the funding of higher education. The policy was […]

If the Alternative Vote had been in use at the 2010 general election, the Liberal Democrats would have won 32 more seats, and a Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition would also have had a Commons majority

How would the main political parties gain or suffer in future Alternative Vote (AV) elections, if UK voters approve changing systems in the May 2011 referendum? David Sanders, Paul Whiteley and colleagues have authoritatively replayed the May 2010 general election. The Liberal Democrats would have been the big gainers, winning many more seats and no longer being reliant on […]