The 2017 general election saw a largely unremarked geographical extension to opinion polling, with three analysts publishing estimates of which party was likely to win in each of the country’s constituencies. Ron Johnston, Kelvyn Jones, David Manley, Charles Pattie, Todd Hartman, and David Rossiter have analysed their accuracy and considered the implications of that development for the conduct of […]
Scotland’s continued membership of and access to the EU is at the forefront of a possible second independence referendum. Together with the political and economic arguments that are often debated, the question of national identity is also worth considering, write Charles Pattie and Ron Johnston. They explain why a majority of Scots could reject independence once more.
When the UK […]
In April 2016 in two contributions to this blog Ron Johnston, Kelvyn Jones and David Manley predicted the likely geography of support for Brexit in the EU referendum. In this concluding piece they compare their predictions to the result. The general pattern of their predictions turned out to be very accurate, but regional differences were more pronounced than anticipated, with variations in both […]
In their recent analysis, Ron Johnston, Kelvyn Jones and David Manley used a large body of YouGov polling data to explore which social groups are most likely to vote Leave in the upcoming EU Referendum and where they live, producing a clear geography of support for Brexit. Here, they explore how differential turnout rates across those groups could alter […]
In a recent Guardian article, Simon Jenkins suggested that voter decisions regarding the EU referendum will be made on the basis of gut instinct alone, and that personal characteristics and previous party support provide no guide. Using a new modelling strategy applied to a large body of YouGov opinion poll data, Ron Johnston, Kelvyn Jones and David Manley address Jenkins’ claim, and find it wanting. The young and the well-qualified […]
The UK government announced on July 16 that it had decided to end the transition period to Individual Electoral Registration early. The Electoral Commission had recommended that it did not, and thereby allow some 1.9 million people who would otherwise be removed to remain on the electoral roll for a further year. The Commission’s reasons for this concern the […]
At the 2015 general election, the Conservative incumbent MP in Watford won 24,400 votes: over the preceding 15 months his campaign received major donations totalling over £312,000 – or nearly £13 per vote. Ron Johnston, Charles Pattie and David Cutts look at these donations within the wider context of Tory fund-raising for their constituency campaigns.
The media made much of […]
Most discussion of the UK’s 2015 election so far has focused on the unexpected Conservative majority. But Charles Pattie and Ron Johnston reveal another remarkable story hidden just below the surface. The electoral system not only deals unfairly with the smaller parties, it is also biased in how it treats the Conservatives relative to Labour. But the nature of that bias […]