If not polls, then betting markets?

In this post, Chris Hanretty, Ben Lauderdale and Nick Vivyan investigate the predictive performance of the betting markets relative to their electionforecast.co.uk forecasting model.  The failure of the opinion polls to accurately estimate national vote share has led some to suggest (here, here) that we should instead look to betting markets as a way of eliciting information about election outcomes. National betting … Continue reading If not polls, then betting markets?