Polling Matters is an independent, non-partisan podcast providing expert polling news and analysis, with guests, in the run up to the General Election. In the most recent episode, the team spoke to Matthew Shaddick from Ladbrokes politics about what the bookies make of the General Election overall and discussed some of the more interesting constituency battles.
You can listen to this week’s polling matters podcast here.
During the latest Polling Matters podcast we spoke to Matt Shaddick from Ladbrokes politics and compared what the bookies are saying about the upcoming General Election to the pollsters and some of the election forecasters. We also discuss the odds on specific races including Nigel Farage in Thanet South, Nick Clegg in Sheffield Hallam and George Galloway in Bradford West.
I often think studying ‘the odds’ can bring certain clarity to elections as the bookies do not have a habit of being wrong. They are sometimes though which is where, with a bit of luck, you can make some money. I have some tips of my own on my blog.
At the time the podcast was recorded, Ladbrokes have the Conservatives as favourite for ‘most seats’ in May. However, this isn’t by much and of course even if they do win most seats, it remains to be seen whether or not they are able to form a Government. For now, everything is up for grabs. Interestingly, the SNP are at slightly lower levels than in some forecasts and the Lib Dems slightly better. Will this prove true? We have to wait and see.
Ladbrokes current forecast
276.5 Con (+2.5)
274.5 Lab (-3.5)
42.5 SNP (+3.5)
30 LD (-1)
3.5 UKIP (-1.5)
Note: Forecast calculated by taking the favourites in each constituency and adding them together. Where numbers equal .5 this is due to joint favourites in certain constituencies.