Latest Poll Information for 15 March
|Party||BBC Poll Tracking||LSE Poll Tracking|
|Per cent||Per cent|
|Last Change||14 March||15 March|
Updates in both our measures today – the BBC takes Friday’s ICM poll as its latest figure and this gives the Conservatives an enlarged lead of 7 per cent. Our own measure is relatively similar to our figures from last week, with Labour on 32 per cent, and the Conservatives on 37 per cent – this 5 per cent gap is now almost a week old. Our measure would suggest that the gap shown by the ICM poll is likely to be a little wider than the reality.
Betting odds and the Election as of 15 March
|Conservative Majority||Labour Majority||No Majority/Hung Parliament||Conservatives Most Seats||Labour Most Seats||Lib Dems most Seats|
* Note that this figure for William Hill, is for ‘No Overall Majority’ rather than a hung parliament.
Looking at the betting odd this week – we see a few small changes. In comparison with last week, Ladbrokes and William Hill have changed their stakes for the Tories having a majority from 4/7 to 8/13, and 8/13 to 4/6, which is a small increase for both. Betfair is the only one of the three betting institutions we track that has altered their odds for the Tories having the most seats – a slight increase from 1/5 to 2/9. Ladbrokes and Betfair have not changed their odds of a Labour majority, but William Hill has slightly increased their odds from 8/1 to 15/2, possibly reflecting the recent narrowing of the polls between the parties. Perhaps for the same reason Betfair have increased their odds of Labour having the most seats, from 9/2 to 4/1. Narrow recent polls have also likely made Ladbrokes and William Hill more supportive of the chances of a hung parliament, with those odds lowering from 7/4 to 13/8, and 6/4 to 5/4, respectively. This trend of narrowing odds will likely continue if the Labour/Conservative gap also stays narrow in the near future.
Posted by Chris Gilson