Latest Poll Information for 15 March
Party | BBC Poll Tracking | LSE Poll Tracking |
---|---|---|
Per cent | Per cent | |
Last Change | 14 March | 15 March |
Labour | 31 | 32 |
Conservatives | 38 | 37 |
Liberal Democrats | 21 | 17 |
Other Parties | 10 | 14 |
Updates in both our measures today – the BBC takes Friday’s ICM poll as its latest figure and this gives the Conservatives an enlarged lead of 7 per cent. Our own measure is relatively similar to our figures from last week, with Labour on 32 per cent, and the Conservatives on 37 per cent – this 5 per cent gap is now almost a week old. Our measure would suggest that the gap shown by the ICM poll is likely to be a little wider than the reality.
Betting odds and the Election as of 15 March
Conservative Majority | Labour Majority | No Majority/Hung Parliament | Conservatives Most Seats | Labour Most Seats | Lib Dems most Seats | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ladbrokes | 8/13 | 10/1 | 13/8 | 1/7 | 4/1 | 200/1 |
Betfair | 5/7 | 13/1 | 15/8 | 2/9 | 4/1 | 499/1 |
William Hill | 4/6 | 15/2 | 5/4* | 1/6 | 7/2 | 125/1 |
* Note that this figure for William Hill, is for ‘No Overall Majority’ rather than a hung parliament.
Looking at the betting odd this week – we see a few small changes. In comparison with last week, Ladbrokes and William Hill have changed their stakes for the Tories having a majority from 4/7 to 8/13, and 8/13 to 4/6, which is a small increase for both. Betfair is the only one of the three betting institutions we track that has altered their odds for the Tories having the most seats – a slight increase from 1/5 to 2/9. Ladbrokes and Betfair have not changed their odds of a Labour majority, but William Hill has slightly increased their odds from 8/1 to 15/2, possibly reflecting the recent narrowing of the polls between the parties. Perhaps for the same reason Betfair have increased their odds of Labour having the most seats, from 9/2 to 4/1. Narrow recent polls have also likely made Ladbrokes and William Hill more supportive of the chances of a hung parliament, with those odds lowering from 7/4 to 13/8, and 6/4 to 5/4, respectively. This trend of narrowing odds will likely continue if the Labour/Conservative gap also stays narrow in the near future.
Posted by Chris Gilson
To follow up on your betting odds display, in this Sky video clip the outgoing Ladbrokes boss tips Labour to win the most seats in the upcoming election.
http://tinyurl.com/yafqlr7