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March 15th, 2010

State of the Race 15 March

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Estimated reading time: 5 minutes

Blog Admin

March 15th, 2010

State of the Race 15 March

1 comment | 1 shares

Estimated reading time: 5 minutes

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Latest Poll Information for 15 March

PartyBBC Poll TrackingLSE Poll Tracking
Per centPer cent
Last Change14 March15 March
Labour3132
Conservatives3837
Liberal Democrats2117
Other Parties1014

Updates in both our measures today – the BBC takes Friday’s ICM poll as its latest figure and this gives the Conservatives an enlarged lead of 7 per cent. Our own measure is relatively similar to our figures from last week, with Labour on 32 per cent, and the Conservatives on 37 per cent – this 5 per cent gap is now almost a week old. Our measure would suggest that the gap shown by the ICM poll is likely to be a little wider than the reality.

Betting odds and the Election as of 15 March

 Conservative MajorityLabour MajorityNo Majority/Hung ParliamentConservatives Most SeatsLabour Most SeatsLib Dems most Seats
Ladbrokes8/1310/113/81/74/1200/1
Betfair5/713/115/82/94/1499/1
William Hill4/615/25/4*1/67/2125/1

* Note that this figure for William Hill, is for ‘No Overall Majority’ rather than a hung parliament.

Looking at the betting odd this week – we see a few small changes. In comparison with last week, Ladbrokes and William Hill have changed their stakes for the Tories having a majority from 4/7 to 8/13, and 8/13 to 4/6, which is a small increase for both. Betfair is the only one of the three betting institutions we track that has altered their odds for the Tories having the most seats – a slight increase from 1/5 to 2/9.  Ladbrokes and Betfair have not changed their odds of a Labour majority, but William Hill has slightly increased their odds from 8/1 to 15/2, possibly reflecting the recent narrowing of the polls between the parties. Perhaps for the same reason Betfair have increased their odds of Labour having the most seats, from 9/2 to 4/1. Narrow recent polls have also likely made Ladbrokes and William Hill more supportive of the chances of a hung parliament, with those odds lowering from 7/4 to 13/8, and 6/4 to 5/4, respectively. This trend of narrowing odds will likely continue if the Labour/Conservative gap also stays narrow in the near future.

Posted by Chris Gilson

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This work by British Politics and Policy at LSE is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported.