|Party||BBC Poll Tracking||LSE Poll Tracking|
|Per cent||Per cent|
|Last Change||3 March||4 March|
In our polling measure, support for the Conservatives has been very steady, at 38 per cent, over the polls since the beginning of the last week of February. The Liberal Democrats have been similarly static at 17 per cent over the same period. Up until yesterday, the BBC’s measure had them at about the 19 per cent mark, our measure takes into account that they have tended to vary between 16 and 19 percent, and so their actual level of support is not quite as high as might be otherwise suggested. This is confirmed by the BBC’s displaying of the most recent YouGov poll, which puts them at 16 per cent support.
Labour has seen relatively little variation over the same period, moving between only 32 and 33 per cent. This low level of variance in our measure indicates that the 25-26 February YouGov Poll which put Labour on 35 per cent, was something of a ‘rogue’ Poll. ‘Rogue’ polls tend to have an inverse law of attention – the more likely a poll is to be a ‘rogue’ poll, then the greater the media attention often given to it. Similarly, the 28 Feb-1 March YouGov poll, which put the Conservatives at 39 per cent (and giving them a 7% lead over Labour), is slightly off-trend and may not indicate a new upward trend for David Cameron.