Posted by Patrick Dunleavy.
Update on Poll Information and MPs projections for 10:30am on Tuesday 4 May
As the race enters its final stages, our new at-a-glance State of the Race gives you all the information you’ll need, all in one place. From now until Friday morning we will update these tables on a rolling basis so that they always reflects the five most recently published polls, and what the outcome means immediately in terms of the top three parties’ seats in the House of Commons.
Vote shares
Votes for the top three
parties (and Others)
LSE % Vote Shares Compare Sky News % Vote Shares
Conservatives 34 35
Labour 28 28
Liberal Democrats 28 27
Other Parties 10 10
Tory Lead over Labour +6 +7
Projected MPs
Projected MPs | LSE seats projection | Compare BBC ‘polls of polls’ seats projection |
---|---|---|
Conservatives | 247 | 278 |
Labour | 276 | 261 |
Liberal Democrats | 95 | 82 |
Other Parties | 14 | 11 |
Northern Ireland | 18 | 18 |
Lead (Labour/Tory; Tory/Labour) | +29 | +17 |
Labour short of working majority | -50 | -65 |
Technical note: Our poll tracking methodology is described here. For seats projections we use a uniform national swing from the 2005 adjusted results, with some small tweaks for tactical voting. The working majority level is 326 for Labour, but only 318 for the Conservatives, who can rely on Unionist MPs from Northern Ireland to support them.
Brief Commentary
Today’s polls show little change from yesterday. Note: today’s last five polls include two YouGov daily polls.
What this means in terms of seats
From the LSE projection, the new political map of the UK would look like this:From the LSE projection, the new political map of the UK would look like this:
How does this map work? Each seat is one dot (irrespective of the size of the area). The white boundaries show the government standard regions.
Advance Notice: Stay with us on Election Night
We’ll be blogging all day and night through Thursday 6 May to 1.30am on Friday 7 May, with the latest updates from LSE’s all-night Election Event, which will also be Webcast live. Bookmark us for an impartial alternative view that cuts through the chatter to the significant developments.
If the seats and government outcome is still substantively unclear at 9.30 am on Friday 7 May, we will restart our coverage until the outcome is resolved.
Even more advance Notice: Post-election analysis and the transition to a new Government
From Friday 7 May this blog will be bringing you the most up-to-date and factually comprehensive analysis of how British voters decided, and what the UK’s voting system did with their preferences. LSE Experts from many disciplines will also be assessing what the election means
– for all the main parties
– for the political and constitutional development of the UK, and
– for the full range of public policies and UK economic development.
Eric, you may be interested in our new post, by Paul Mitchell of LSE Government; How will Northern Ireland vote in 2010?
Thanks for this query. The impact of the 18 Northern Ireland MPs has probably never been greater than it could be if there is a hung Parliament this Friday. Even the current five Sinn Fein MPs (if re-elected) will have an impact by not showing up at Westminster, lowering the effective number who can vote in the Commons to 645, and hence the majority threshold to 323.
Since the development of a more peaceful Northern Ireland under the current constitutional arrangements the Conservatives have been making moves to rebuild their historic links with Unionism, severed during the troubles. I agree with you that the Democratic Unionist Party are now the key players (and indeed we expect none of the UUP candidates to win on Thursday, although there will be an Independent Unionist). But the DUP’s distinctiveness has declined as Northern Ireland’s politics have normalized somewhat, and in terms of their UK policy positions they clearly would back a Tory government in any close-fought situation, certainly in confidence motions. Of course, the DUP will tend to have a price, but unless a new security situation flares up that price will tend to focus on ‘tradeable’ issues, like economic protection for Northern Ireland against some fiscal cuts. It’s generally easier to negotiate on such tradeable issues.
I am a little surprised that you write that the conservatives can rely on the support of the unionists in Northern Ireland as during the last parliament these were mainly from the DUP which does not have the same close links to the conservatives as the UUP. I admit that I am not old enough to remember the last conservative government and I know little of the politics of Nothern Ireland so I would be interested in hearing your reasoning behind this statement.