On May 30th, former President Donald Trump was found guilty on 34 counts of falsifying business records in the New York Supreme Court. Phelan US Centre Director, Professor Peter Trubowitz writes on what this might mean for Trump’s supporters, and those who might be on the fence about voting for Joe Biden. While the guilty verdict will likely help Biden’s campaign, to win he still needs to convince people that he’s delivering on the economy.
Will the Trump verdict matter in November?
Yes, the question is whether it matters enough to tip the balance in a close race from Trump to Biden. There are three groups of “voters” to keep your eye on: first, the 20 percent of Republicans who have said repeatedly in polls that they wouldn’t vote for Trump if he is convicted of a felony; second, those low-information voters who Biden is having trouble with but who will notice and grasp today’s headline, “Trump convicted”; and last but not least, those rich Wall Street investors who are currently sitting on the fence about whether to back Donald Trump. They will now have to decide whether to risk their brand by being associated with a convicted felon.
What should we be focused on, but aren’t?
How Trump’s core supporters will react to the yesterday’s verdict. Trump, of course, doesn’t need to worry about their support at the polls in November. Nothing else — Trump’s two impeachments, his mishandling of Covid, the January 6th insurrection — has turned them against Trump. Why should the jury’s verdict yesterday be any different? To my mind, the real question is how Trump’s hardcore backers vent their frustration and anger over the verdict, peacefully or violently. If they hound jurors, attack the judge or his family, or take to the streets, as some are now threatening to do on pro-Trump social media sites, many swing voters may decide enough is enough, and that backing Trump is simply too risky.
What does this mean for the Biden campaign?
This will certainly breathe new life into the Biden campaign, expand his campaign’s coffers, and give Biden another opportunity to sharpen the contrast between himself and Trump in the run up to their 27 June debate. At the end of the day though, I don’t think it changes what Biden needs to do to win. He needs to convince people that he’s delivering on the economy. Biden’s economic performance is not the only issue voters will be voting on in November, but polls show it remains a crucial one, and could be the difference in the industrial heartland states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, where the election is likely to be won or lost. Biden still has his work cut out for him.
- This article is based on a 31 May interview with Professor Trubowitz on CNBC.
- Featured image: “Trump hush money trial” (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0) by vpickering
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- Note: This article gives the views of the author, and not the position of USAPP– American Politics and Policy, nor of the London School of Economics.
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