On Sunday July 21st, Joe Biden announced that he would not accept the Democratic Party’s nomination to be the party’s presidential candidate in the 2024 election. Phelan US Centre Director, Professor Peter Trubowitz writes that now the political conversation will turn to who the Democrats will nominate at their convention in August. Whoever is nominated, he argues, the electoral map this November is unlikely to change a great deal and will likely continue to revolve around key battleground states.
Is Biden’s stunning decision yesterday a first?
In the modern era, the only parallel to Biden dropping out of the presidential race is Lyndon Johnson’s bombshell announcement in March 1968 that he would not seek or accept his party’s nomination for another term. However, Johnson stepped aside because Americans had turned against the Vietnam War, leaving him no viable electoral path forward. In Biden’s case, the issue was his age and acuity, not his policies, which are popular. Fair or not, the problem facing Biden was that he had become “the issue” of the presidential campaign. If the Democrats hoped to win this November, that dynamic had to change. Biden had to step aside of his own accord and clear the path for another candidate. He did that with considerable grace yesterday.
Where does this leave the presidential race?
For the next few weeks, the political conversation will be less about Trump and more about who the Democrats will nominate to take the fight to the Republicans. It’s worth remembering here that over two thirds of Americans were not enthusiastic about a Biden-Trump rematch of their 2020 contest. That’s why political consultants coined a new term: the “double haters.” These are the voters election watchers thought would determine the outcome of a close presidential contest — which way would they break? Biden just simplified these voters’ choice. Whoever they nominate in August to head the ticket (as the odds-on favourite, Vice-President Kamala Harris is quickly cementing her position with delegates and donors), it won’t be Biden.
Will this fundamentally change the electoral map?
Assuming the Democrats come out of their August convention united behind a candidate, there is every reason to think that the presidential contest will revert to form: another close, hard-fought election decided by only a few pivotal battleground states (e.g. Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin). Look for Trump to double down on the border, tariffs and America First. We will also hear a lot about the “China threat” from the former president and his Vice-Presidential candidate, J.D. Vance. Look for the Democratic nominee to run on Biden’s policies. The structural factors (i.e. a strong economy, abortion rights, health care) point in the Democrats’ favour, but they must translate these into votes in a few key states where the outcomes cannot be taken for granted.
- Professor Peter Trubowitz will be speaking at the Chatham House event, ‘What’s next for the US election?’ on Monday 22 July 2024 at 3-4pm. More information.
- Featured image: President Joe Biden and First Lady Jill Biden board Air Force One at Naval Station Norfolk in Norfolk, Virginia on Sunday, November 19, 2023, en route to Joint Base Andrews, Maryland. (Official White House Photo by Adam Schultz); P20231119AS-1154 by The White House is United States government work.
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- Note: This article gives the views of the author, and not the position of USAPP– American Politics and Policy, nor of the London School of Economics.
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