Following the first 2024 presidential election debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump last night LSE Phelan US Centre Director, Professor Peter Trubowitz writes that the Vice President was successfully able to get under the former president’s skin. While Harris’ campaign will likely get a boost from her debate performance, she is still vulnerable in the battleground states which are key to winning the election.
What are your impressions of the debate?
I think Democrats are breathing a sigh of relief today. Harris clearly had a good night and likely convinced many of those voters on the fence (‘persuadable voters’) to vote for her in November. She came across as calm and competent. Trump, by contrast, came across as angry and confused. Harris’s strategy was to get under his skin by raising doubts about “crowd size” at his rallies, his commitment to women’s reproductive rights, and Trump’s overall fitness to serve another four years as president, and it seemed to work. If I’m Harris’s campaign manager, I’m feeling pretty good about last night’s debate in Philadelphia.
How much will last night’s debate matter?
We’ll know better in a few days whether the debate moved the proverbial needle when we see polling numbers. But for now, Harris’ campaign will get a boost at a time when the sugar high from the Democratic convention in August seemed to be wearing off and many voters were looking to last night’s debate to get a better fix on who Harris is and whether she is up to the job. But there is a lot of road between now and Election Day on November 5th and given the closeness of the race, nothing is guaranteed. It is worth remembering that most Americans thought Hilary Clinton won her debates against Donald Trump in 2016 and she was defeated on Election Day.
What should we expect going forward?
We are now at that stage of the presidential contest when both sides will begin to accelerate their efforts to get out the vote — to get their supporters to the polls. Five states, including the pivotal battleground state of Pennsylvania (with its 19 electoral votes), begin in-person early voting this month and more will follow early next month. These key battleground states are where the contest will likely be won or lost. Both Harris and Trump have their work cut out for them. Harris is still lagging Joe Biden’s 2020 numbers with key Democratic constituencies, including African American voters. Trump is still struggling with independent voters and especially, women who hold him responsible for the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade in 2022.
Watch France 24 interview with Professor Peter Trubowitz on the September 10 presidential debate
- This article is based on a 11 September interview with Professor Trubowitz on France 24.
- Featured image: “V20240722LJ-0092” by The White House is United States government work
- Note: This article gives the views of the author, and not the position of USAPP– American Politics and Policy, nor of the London School of Economics.
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