Georgia is one of the swing states which will likely be needed to secure the White House in this year’s presidential election. Robert M. Howard gives an overview of the state’s recent electoral history, writing that while it has tended to lean Republican at the presidential level, the 2020 result, and recent Democratic Senate victories indicate that it may be becoming more purple. Those following the election should also watch out for further splits between former President Donald Trump and state Republicans such as Governor Brian Kemp. 

• This article is part of ‘The 2024 Elections’ series curated by Peter Finn (Kingston University). Ahead of the 2024 election, this series is exploring US elections at the state and national level. If you are interested in contributing to the series, contact Peter Finn (p.finn@kingston.ac.uk). 

Seven years ago, I co-authored a book on the Politics of Georgia. We noted the political changes occurring in Georgia, and that although Donald Trump had won the Peach State in the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton had come within five percentage points, a much narrower margin than Barack Obama achieved in 2012. More importantly, Clinton had won large suburban Atlanta counties such as Gwinnett and Cobb. These counties had been, not just Republican dominated, but the counties that birthed the modern Georgia Republican party.

We noted that with this smaller presidential margin, and the potential for a Democratic takeover of suburban Atlanta (the twelve counties surrounding Atlanta are referred to as the “doughnut surrounding hole”), it did appear that the state was becoming “purplish.” However, we were unsure about the exact timing of the move to a true two-party competition. We did not know whether it would happen by the next midterm election in 2018, the next presidential election in 2020, or beyond. The lasting strength of the Georgia Republican party was certainly an unknown element in 2017 when we were writing the book.

Georgia remains Republican – for now

Since the book was published the uncertainty we expressed then still exists. The state is trending purple but remains under Republican control. To be clear, Democrats have made electoral gains. In 2018 Democrat gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams came within about 50,000 votes and a few percentage points of winning the governorship. Georgia now has two Democratic Senators elected in 2021 in runoff elections (Georgia has a runoff if no candidate garners 50 percent of the vote in the first election). One of those Senators, Raphael Warnock, won reelection in 2022 because this Senate election was to fill the seat of a Republican Senator who had retired early for health reasons. In addition, Biden won the state, albeit by a small margin, in 2020. These all point to a robust two-party electorate.

However, demonstrating the strength of the state Republican party, Republican Lieutenant Governor Brian Kemp bested Abrams in that 2018 gubernatorial election, and Republicans won the other statewide offices in 2018 and again in 2022, except for Warnock. Kemp again defeated Abrams in 2022, but this time by a much wider margin and the other Republicans comfortably won their statewide offices. Of course, Kemp, was and is, a popular incumbent. Generally, the party that controls the White House, which was the Democratic Party, does worse in midterm elections, not just in elections for federal offices, but also for statewide offices.

What to watch out for in the 2024 elections in Georgia

So, given all that, what will the 2024 elections bring? Will Democrats build on their 2020 success, or will Republicans reassert dominance repeating their 2022 performance? In short, will former President Donald Trump or Kamala Harris win? To some extent, the state parties mirror the national political parties. The Republicans rely on appeals to an increasingly white and more rural electorate, with an emphasis on appeals to religious and social conservatives. The Democratic Party is much more diverse, with large percentages of African Americans, women and other social and ethnic minorities. What do these demographic trends and political and social preferences mean for the presidential election in 2024?

The easy answer is that the state still leans Republican. However, voter turnout will be critical and there are several indicators to keep an eye on in the next several weeks and on election night. First, Republicans have made early and absentee voting much more difficult. This policy is designed to hurt Democratic turnout. So, one thing to do is compare early and absentee voting trends in 2024 to 2020. Is it higher, lower or the same? If it is higher that is an indicator of Democratic voting strength. Another is the vote share in the rural Republican counties as well as the urban and suburban Democratic counties. Trump won over 80 percent of the vote in several sparsely populated rural counties in southern and northern Georgia. If Harris could reduce that percentage to 70 percent or so, it would be another indicator of her strength.

“I’m a Georgia Voter” (CC BY 2.0) by pasa47

Conversely, Biden won Cobb County by 14 percent. Can Trump cut into that percentage and reduce the vote share of Harris in this and other suburban counties? I would also look at Fayette County. This was the only suburban county to give Trump a victory in 2020. He won by about five percent there. Can Harris flip the county or cut into this lead? It would be a key indicator of the strength of each candidate. In terms of demographics, watch the share of the white vote that Harris takes. For a Democrat to win statewide they usually need close to 30 percent of the white vote.

Another factor to consider is the relationship between Governor Brian Kemp and former President Trump. It has been tenuous at best. Kemp and other Republicans refused Trump’s call to overturn the 2020 presidential vote, and it demonstrates a deeper divide in the Georgia Republican party.

Divisions within the Georgia GOP

While all Republicans in Georgia are very conservative, Georgia Republicans have always been divided between business-oriented conservatives and social conservatives. In 2024 Georgia, the business oriented conservative faction are largely supporters of Governor Brian Kemp, the state house Republican leadership and the Secretary of State, Brad Raffensperger. The other more socially religious bloc aligns with the Lieutenant Governor, Burt Jones (a fake elector in 2020 who was initially indicted but saw the indictment dismissed), Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Green, and former Senator and 2022 Republican Gubernatorial primary rival to Kemp, David Perdue. Trump continued to criticize Kemp as recently as August at a rally he held in the state. However, there has been an apparent rapprochement between Kemp and Trump. Will it hold? Trump needs Kemp’s organization and a united Republican party to help the get out to vote effort. It can be the difference between winning and losing the statewide election. So, watch if any overt split develops between Trump and Kemp or other Republicans in the state.

Another thing to consider is the impact of the pro-abortion vote on the state of Georgia. Georgia has a very restrictive abortion law, banning most abortions after six weeks. Given the unpopularity of the Supreme Court decision in Dobbs v. Jackson and the strength of pro-abortion voting in subsequent elections around the United States, it might be difficult for Trump to improve on his vote share in the suburban counties.

Finally, polls in Georgia close at 7:00 pm eastern time, but is a long process to count the votes. The more populous counties take the most time. The results from some of the large counties such as Fulton, DeKalb, Cobb and Gwinnett Counties, might not be available for several hours. It could be a long night for the state to announce its results. Given that Georgia is now considered one of the seven swing states critical to an Electoral College victory, it could also be a long night for the country and the world.

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