Arizona is one of seven swing states which may be crucial to the outcome of the 2024 presidential election. David R. Berman gives an overview of the state’s recent political history and electoral geography. He writes that while Democrats have often struggled to win statewide elections in recent years, a swing to the Democrats in the two most populated counties, Maricopa and Pima, could be enough to overcome the Republicans’ lead in the rest of the state’s rural counties.
- This article is part of ‘The 2024 Elections’ series curated by Peter Finn (Kingston University). Ahead of the 2024 election, this series is exploring US elections at the state and national level. If you are interested in contributing to the series, contact Peter Finn (p.finn@kingston.ac.uk).
A series of victories in state-wide elections by Democrats in recent years have qualified Arizona as a genuine swing state. But in the 2024 election cycle, it remains to be seen if Democrats will actually be able to swing the state behind the party’s presidential candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, and capture its eleven electoral votes. Her opponent, former President Donald Trump, is relatively unpopular in Arizona when compared to previous Republican candidates for president but has made a strong effort. Both sides have been vigorously searching for votes in what is expected to be a very close election. The outcome is likely to be highly conditioned by what happens in Maricopa County, which includes the Phoenix area, which customarily provides more than 60 percent of the votes cast in the state. Turnout is likely to greatly matter.
The Arizona Republican Party’s Trump takeover
Once a Democratic state in the early 20th century, the Republican Party began to dominate In Arizona after World War II. Much of this shift was down to the gradual conversion of conservative Democrats unhappy with liberal control of their former party to the Republican Party where they felt more comfortable. Control of the state GOP, however, moved from a relatively moderate business-oriented group interested in modernizing the state to a party where right-wing populists, religious fundamentalists, and anti-government Tea Party advocates played a larger role. By 2016 all these forces had blended into a party largely devoted to Donald Trump but also one that was being challenged statewide by a reinvigorated Democratic Party.
In The Grand Canyon State, the Republican Party has had much going for it when it comes to presidential elections. From 1952 to 2016 Arizona consistently went Republican in presidential elections. The only exception was Democrat Bill Clinton’s victory in 1996. Trump won in 2016. He lost four years later to Joe Biden but by only 10,457 votes. Republicans have also long enjoyed an advantage in party registration, and this advantage appears to have improved since 2020. With Republican registration now at 35 percent, the party has stretched its lead over Democrats from three to six percentage points. While these party registration percentages may change between now and November 5th, as in the past, Democratic candidates in statewide elections, including Harris, are likely to need considerable support from independent voters to win.
Arizona in the 2024 election
As the 2024 presidential election season began, many scholars and pundits considered Arizona to be a swing state—one which the major parties had comparable levels of statewide support, and any partisan election could go either way based on its own dynamics—turning on the issues and candidates involved. Arizona qualified as a swing state because Democrats had done well in several statewide elections, though not always outdoing the Republicans. In 2018 Democrats enjoyed victories in races for US Senator, Secretary of State, Superintendent of Public Instruction, and a seat on the public utility corporation commission. Two years later, Arizona voters elected another Democratic US senator, and Biden defeated Trump. In 2022, Democrats were triumphant in statewide elections for US Senator, Governor, Attorney General and Secretary of State.
Statewide, both Democrats and Republicans have had better success with moderate candidates. Doug Ducey, a relatively moderate Republican who fell out with Trump, won two elections, in 2014 and 2018 before being termed out and in the last of these won by a wide margin over an openly highly progressive Democratic candidate. In 2022 several conservative Republican candidates for statewide office employed far right-wing rhetoric including the claim that the presidential election in 2020 had been stolen from Donald Trump. They won their primaries with Trump’s endorsement, went into the general election with his backing, and lost. The only Republican to win a state-wide election that in 2022 was a centrist candidate for state treasurer who did not receive an endorsement from Trump.
“Voting Yes for AZ Education – You should” (CC BY 2.0) by seantoyer
Democrats’ successes in Arizona
In recent years Democrats have regularly done well at the polls with women, young voters, and independents. They also have enjoyed the support of minorities, including Latinos (who are likely to constitute close to a quarter of all voters in 2024), African Americans and Native Americans. The votes of moderate Republicans who have found Republican candidates on the extreme right unacceptable have been helpful to Democrats. Additionally benefiting the Democrats in recent years has been the influx of liberal voters from California, an increase in the number of minority voters, and the increased backing of college-educated women in suburban areas. The replacement of Joe Biden by Harris on the Democratic ticket appears to have strengthened the ties with the traditional core constituencies and rejuvenated the Democrats, perhaps leading to a larger turnout, especially from minorities and young people.
Democratic success in recent years has rested on votes in the largest urban counties of Maricopa and Pima (Tucson) where much of its support is based. Democrats have strength in some of these thirteen remaining counties, but the total vote coming from the thirteen has been largely conservative and Republican. Trump, like other Republican candidates, can rely on this vote and it can be decisive if voters in the large counties are badly divided. In 2016 when Trump carried Arizona, he lost the combined vote in the two urban counties (Maricopa and Pima) to Hillary Clinton by 7,205 votes but carried the remaining thirteen more lightly populated counties by over 92,109 votes. As Figure 1 shows, in his loss to Joe Biden in 2020, Trump carried the thirteen smaller counties by 131,875 votes but lost in the urban counties by 142,332 votes.
Figure 1 – 2020 presidential election vote in Arizona by county
Source: State of Arizona
At one time Maricopa County was dependably Republican but in recent years it has often swung toward the Democrats in statewide elections making the whole state a swing state. It is also one in which there is a distinct urban-rural division when we compare the vote in the two largest urban counties of Maricopa and Pima with the thirteen smaller populated counties. For several decades urban-rural divisions were minimized because voters in both Maricopa County and in many of the more rural counties favored statewide Republican candidates.
The number of voters in each of the state’s fifteen counties changes from election to election but there is generally little doubt about which party will get the most votes. They can be safely predicted to be either for Democrats or Republicans. Democrats can rely on Apache County (a rural county with a large Native American population, Coconino County (Flagstaff and Northern Arizona University), Pima County (Tucson and the University of Arizona), and Santa Cruz County (a rural county with a large Latino population) Ten other counties are likely to tilt Republican, sometimes overwhelmingly so. Maricopa, with over 60 percent of the voters, is a swing county, and which way it goes is likely to decide which way the state goes. Understandably, both parties give considerable attention to this county.
Early signs of the emergence of Maricopa as a swing county came in 2014 when, Democrat David Garcia narrowly carried it in the state superintendent of public instruction race, the first Democrat to carry Maricopa in a statewide race in several years. Evidence of change came in 2016 when Donald Trump took the county by just 3 percentage points. By comparison Republican nominee Mitt Romney won the county by nearly 11 percentage points in 2012. In 2018 Democrat Kyrsten Sinema carried the county by a wide enough margin to offset her losses in the rest of the state to win her bid for the Senate. In 2020 Joe Biden became the first presidential candidate of the Democratic Party to win Maricopa County since Harry Truman in 1948. The continuing challenge for Democrats has been to do well enough in Maricopa to overcome the lead Republicans have built in the rest of the state.
The groups and issues each party are targeting
Given the tightness of the polls, each side in 2024 has sought to get every vote it can and anywhere in the state it can, sometimes campaigning in unfriendly areas, for example, Trump in Tucson. Democrats and the Harris campaign have put an emphasis on attracting votes from moderate or (John) McCain Republicans. Trump’s attacks on McCain and his legacy have made this a bit easier for the Democrats. Some moderate Republican leaders value a Harris victory as a matter of saving the Republican Party from Trump. The Harris campaign has also set its eyes on winning support from Mormon voters, most of whom have had strong ties to the Republican Party. The chances of a large gain are slender, but many Mormons appear have no love for Trump when it comes to his moral and ethical fitness for the office. Both sides have been competing for the important Hispanic vote. As usual in state-wide races both sides have also kept independents in mind.
Polls suggest that the chief issues of concern to Arizona voters are the economy (high prices and jobs) immigration, and government taxing and spending. These areas are of particular concern to Republicans. Democrats cite a broader set of issue including abortion rights and protecting democracy. Concern about people coming over the Mexican border, legally or illegally, is higher in Arizona than in any of the other swing states and has long played a central role in state politics. This issue is likely to work for Trump and hurt Harris. On the other hand, concern about abortion rights is likely to benefit Harris and hurt Trump. Measures affecting both issues will be on the ballot in 2024. Republicans hope to benefit in turnout with a proposition calling for steps to reduce immigration. Democrats hope that a measure that would protect the right to have an abortion will generate voter turnout favorable to them. Drawing upon various public opinion polls and past elections, both propositions may well win.
Recent polls, though constantly changing in direction, suggest the presidential contest could go either way. The number of undecided voters is diminishing. Much is likely to depend on voter turnout. Arizona is swinging.
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