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October 3rd, 2024

What Hurricane Helene might mean for voting in the 2024 presidential elections in the states most affected

2 comments | 6 shares

Estimated reading time: 7 minutes

Blog Admin

October 3rd, 2024

What Hurricane Helene might mean for voting in the 2024 presidential elections in the states most affected

2 comments | 6 shares

Estimated reading time: 7 minutes

In the past week, Hurricane Helene – a Category 4 storm – has caused destruction, including almost 200 deaths, across several southeastern US states. With the 2024 presidential election only a month away, Madeline Harty and Erik Asplund look at the long-lasting potential implications of the storm on voting in these states. They write that the states that will have the most success conducting elections following Hurricane Helene are those which have established frameworks to protect elections from partisan manipulation as well as partnerships, planning, legal frameworks, and measures to include voters.

The immediate aftermath of Hurricane Helene, which made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane on the Florida coast on 26 September 2024, has left nearly 200 people dead, hundreds missing, and millions without power as of publication of this article. People are slowly beginning to grapple with damaged livelihoods just as the 2024 US Presidential election approaches. How states impacted by Hurricane Helene ensure the integrity of the vote relies on emergency preparedness, inter-agency cooperation, the flexibility to expand special voting arrangements, and inclusion of marginalized groups. Without these considerations, the people of Florida, Georgia, North and South Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia may become disenfranchised, both in the short and long term.

Immediate voting impacts from Hurricane Helene 

Less than five weeks out from the US presidential election, the immediate impacts of Hurricane Helene can be seen in the widespread damage across the southeast. The “500-mile path of destruction” began by washing away many roads as water surged up to 4.5 meters (15 feet) in Florida. In Georgia, flash flooding brought in debris and carried away houses. In North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee, dramatic winds and rainfall knocked down bridges and flattened towns.

The aftermath of Hurricane Helene, which rapidly intensified to a Category 4, will bring long-lasting troubles for voters in affected communities. With the presidential election imminent, destroyed infrastructure and storm fallout currently blocks voters from traveling to polling stations. In Tennessee, at least six polling sites remain unusable or inaccessible. In-person, early voting begins in a few weeks across several affected states, leaving questions about voter access. Postal services are partially suspended across all southeastern states. For mail-in ballots that were sent before Helene, those deliveries may now be lost, delayed, or destroyed; in North Carolina, it remains unclear what has happened to the 190,000 mail-in ballots supplied before the storm hit. The displacement of residents because of Hurricane Helene can cause issues with voter identification procedures as voters scramble to safety and leave behind IDs and other paperwork.

In addition, US presidential candidates have changed their campaign strategies in the affected states and brought aid-focused messaging into their campaigns. Vice President Kamala Harris canceled events in Las Vegas to meet with Federal Emergency Management Agency officials, while former President Donald Trump traveled to a storm-hit city in Georgia. Many political analysts are tracking how former President Donald Trump is politicizing the disaster while Vice President Harris will be closely watched for her actions. Several states affected by Hurricane Helene are regarded as crucial swing states.

What are states doing to protect elections following Hurricane Helene? 

North Carolina has received media attention in the past few days following catastrophic flooding in the western part of the state, making it one of the worst-hit regions by Hurricane Helene. The State Board of Elections recently announced that 13 county boards of elections have closed and mail operations at dozens of post offices are suspended. Yet election officials are doing what they can amid disaster to ensure a secure and accessible vote.

The State Board of Elections is providing “election offices in a box” emergency kits to aid voting in places without internet. Further, under emergency powers the bipartisan State Board passed a resolution to increase flexibility on returning absentee ballots, which was scheduled to begin discussions on 1 October but gave rescheduling abilities to 25 of the 100 state counties.

Another existing special voting arrangement in North Carolina is around voter identification. State law allows exceptions to voter ID requirements when a natural disaster occurs within 100 days of an election when a disaster is officially declared by the President or Governor, meaning the 25 counties with disaster declaration can now use this exception. As an Ashe county election official stated this week, “we will still hold an election and will make sure everyone gets an opportunity to vote. It will just be different and harder.” The director of the State Board of Elections applauds election workers, sharing that one member walked five miles to check in on an election office days after the storm began.

In Florida, the state’s assistance for voters is still unfolding. The Division of Elections within the Florida Department of State contacted the United States Postal Service and advised that Supervisors of Elections work with local postal service offices to make mitigation plans. The Florida Supervisors of Elections, a professional membership organization consisting of election supervisors from all 67 counties, requested an executive order from the Florida Secretary of State for increased flexibility in ten counties.

In Tennessee, a polling location was relocated following storm cleanup and other election officials are working with displaced voters.

Hurricane Helene Relief” (Public Domain) by Greenville, NC

Protecting elections in the face of natural hazards 

The International Institute of Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA) studies the impact of natural hazards on elections, providing a global comparative analysis of how events like Hurricane Helene have impacted elections worldwide. Whether its wildfires disrupting elections in California, cyclones forcing a postponement of state elections in India, or earthquake fallout shifting voting operations in Türkiye, International IDEA has identified 54 cases between 2005-2024 when natural hazards impacted national and subnational elections and referendums in 32 countries from all regions of the globe.

Published recently, their case study on Hurricane Sandy’s impact on the 2012 US federal election showcases efforts made by New Jersey and New York election officials to help voters when disaster struck days before the vote. New Jersey election officials paid close attention to voters disproportionately affected by Hurricane Sandy, keeping daily communication with advocacy groups to ensure assistance measures implemented would be inclusive to all. Further, existing emergency training that occurred before Hurricane Sandy set election officials up for success as interagency contacts were already established before the disaster. Lastly, a careful expansion of voting arrangements was most effective when modifying existing laws, though further preparedness was needed, as shown when New Jersey expanded eligibility for email voting which backfired when a surge in users overwhelmed technological capacities.

States that will have the most success conducting elections following Hurricane Helene are those which have existing legal frameworks on protecting elections free of partisan manipulation, have existing relationships and training with regional election officials, emergency personnel, and advocacy groups, and have strong continuity of operations plans.

The effects of climate change have already been seen in the 2024 US elections when freezing temperatures disrupted the Iowa Caucus, and heatwaves affected campaign events. Notably, hurricane Helene rapidly intensified, a phenomenon where a storm’s wind speeds increase significantly over a short period, leading to dramatic escalations in their strength and impact.

To ensure the integrity of elections, southeastern states hit by Hurricane Helene must ensure that beyond the 2024 election, established partnerships, planning, legal frameworks, and inclusion measures are locked down enough for future elections, not be blown away by what’s next to come.

  • Please read our comments policy before commenting. 
  • Note: Views expressed in this commentary are those of the authors, one of whom is a staff member of International IDEA and is not the position of USAPP – American Politics and Policy, nor the London School of Economics. This commentary is independent of specific national or political interests. Views expressed do not necessarily represent the institutional position of International IDEA, its Board of Advisers or its Council of Member States. 
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About the authors

Maddie Harty is an independent consultant. She previously worked for International IDEA and the US Federal Government. Her current research focus is on the impact of natural hazards on elections. Her MA in International Security from the Josef Korbel School of International Studies focuses on democracy and peacebuilding. 

Erik Asplund is a Senior Programme Officer in the Electoral Processes Programme, International IDEA. His research covers elections during emergencies and crises, risk management in elections, and training and professional development in electoral administration. Recent books include Elections during Emergencies and Crisis: Lessons from Electoral Integrity from Covid-19 Pandemic.

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