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Daniel J. Schulte

October 9th, 2024

How abortion policies are playing out in the 2024 election swing states

0 comments | 1 shares

Estimated reading time: 7 minutes

Daniel J. Schulte

October 9th, 2024

How abortion policies are playing out in the 2024 election swing states

0 comments | 1 shares

Estimated reading time: 7 minutes

The overturning of Roe v. Wade in 2022 has had important political implications as the US states have instituted measures to either restrict or protect a woman’s right to have an abortion. As the 2024 presidential election approaches, Daniel Schulte looks at the complex landscape of varying abortion policies and abortion-related ballot initiatives facing voters across the states this November. With states having a combination of abortion bans and abortion-related ballot measures, and the importance of the issue in these states, abortion rights may yet play a decisive role in determining the election’s outcome.

Abortion is central to the 2024 US presidential race as shown by its prominence at the debate between former President Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris in September. Watching the debate, the contrast between the candidates on the issue could not have been starker. When asked about his recent flip-flops on the issue, Trump accused Democrats of supporting “abortion[s] in the ninth month.” Moreover he trumpeted his role in overturning Roe v. Wade and returning abortion to the states, which, he claimed, “every legal scholar….wanted.” Harris stated that “now in over 20 states there are Trump abortion bans which make it criminal for doctor or nurse to provide health care.” She further highlighted the harmful consequences of these bans by citing examples of “pregnant women who want to carry a pregnancy to term suffering from a miscarriage…bleeding out in a car in the parking lot,” and “a 12 or 13-year-old survivor of incest being forced to carry a pregnancy to term.” If president, Harris said she would sign a bill restoring Roe v. Wade by guaranteeing access to abortion nationwide, and Trump stated, “I’m not signing a ban,” but he refused to say whether he would veto a national ban.

While abortion is a very important as well as polarizing issue, will it be the deciding factor in the presidential race across the all-important swing states? Abortion will likely have different impacts due to the complex landscape of varying abortion policies and abortion ballot initiatives across these states. While implemented abortion bans can be politically harmful for right-wing politicians as seen in the 2023 Polish elections and the 2022 US midterm elections, it is not the most important issue on average for all Americans in this race. Moreover, most citizens are not single-issue voters. If Harris seems to be winning because of the abortion issue, it may be because she is also performing relatively well or not too poorly on issues like the economy and immigration where Republicans have historically been stronger. 

A complex landscape of abortion policies and ballot measures 

The June 2022 Dobbs decision which overturned Roe v. Wade, led to varied abortion policies across the states as conflicts played out in state legislatures and in the courts. Some states such as Wisconsin, Ohio, and North Dakota have seen the abortion law change over the past two years. Currently, abortion is legal or technically legal in 29 states while 21 states have abortion bans (13 states with complete bans and eight states with bans ranging from after six to 18 weeks of pregnancy). In seven states, citizens voted in 2022 or 2023 on the issue in state ballot initiatives, while ten states have abortion ballot measures scheduled for this November. Table 1 sorts the swing states into four categories of ban and ballot initiatives, and Figure 1 maps them:

  • The state has an abortion ban and ballot initiatives (e.g., Arizona and Florida)
  • The state has an abortion bans but no ballot initiatives (e.g., Georgia and North Carolina)
  • The state has an abortion-related ballot initiative. but no abortion ban (e.g., Nevada)
  • The state has neither abortion bans nor ballot initiatives (e.g., Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin).


Table 1 – Four different patterns of abortion policies and abortion ballot 
measures across the 50 states

Figure 1 – Mapping Abortion Ban and Ballot Measures

Source: Created using Mapchart.net

“Both Ban and Ballot” states 

In five states, there are both abortion bans and ballot measures, including the swing states of Arizona and the former swing state of Florida. In both states, abortion is quite important, with 23 percent of all surveyed Arizonans and 19 percent of all Floridians considering abortion to be the most important issue. In Arizona, where Harris and Trump are close (Trump is up by 1.5 percent in recent polls), there is a 15-week abortion ban and a ballot measure called “Proposition 139” to remove the ban and allow abortion up to viability or around 23 weeks. In contrast, Trump is up by almost four percentage points in Florida, where there is a six-week abortion ban and ballot measure “Amendment 4” proposing to remove the ban. Abortion has received increased attention in both states since policies recently changed in both states and from campaigns both for and against ballot measures. This increased attention is largely benefitting Democrats: 21 percent more of surveyed Arizonans and 14 percent more of Floridians trust Harris more than Trump on the abortion issue. However, abortion is more likely to be a decisive factor in Arizona (than in Florida) where the race is much closer.

31.Rally.WomensStrike.SCOTUS.WDC.24June2” (CC BY-SA 2.0) by Elvert Barnes

“Ban, but no Ballot” States 

In 16 states, many of which are in the South, there are abortion bans but no ballot initiatives. In both Georgia and North Carolina, Trump and Harris are virtually tied (Trump is up by one percent and 0.9 percent respectively), there are bans (six-week and 12-week respectively), and both states do not allow citizen-led ballot measures. 17 percent of surveyed Georgians and 11 percent of North Carolinians consider abortion to be the most important issue. The higher importance of the issue in Georgia could be because of the stricter ban and greater distance Georgians would have to travel to get an abortion. While politicians in both states are discussing the issue in their campaigns (e.g., the governor’s race in North Carolina), Georgia’s ban entered the national conversation when on September 18th, Harris tweeted about the death of Amber Thurman, attributed by some to Georgia’s ban. Given the closeness of the races, abortion could be decisive in both states, but especially in Georgia where consequences of its six-week ban is currently getting national attention.

“Neither Ban nor Ballot” States 

Nearly half of all states have neither bans nor ballot measures. In the swing states included in this category, Harris is up very slightly in the polls: 1.6 percent in Wisconsin, 1.7 percent in Michigan, and 0.7 percent in Pennsylvania. All three states have seen conflicts around abortion: ongoing court proceedings in Wisconsin, successfully fought pro-choice court rulings in Pennsylvania, and a successful pro-choice ballot measure in Michigan. The Harris campaign is reportedly running abortion-related campaign ads throughout all three states (see ads here and here). Due to the importance of abortion in all three states (18 percent in Wisconsin, 20 percent in Michigan, and 16 percent in Pennsylvania) and greater trust of Harris on abortion in all three states, it is possible that abortion is already contributing to Harris’s slight edge here.

“Ballot but no Ban” States 

In a small group of states (Colorado, Maryland, Montana, Nevada, and New York), abortion is legal but there are ballot measures to enshrine constitutional abortion rights, nonetheless. For instance, in the swing state of Nevada, where Harris is up by one percent, citizens will vote on “Question 6.” The relevance of the issue is quite high (20 percent of surveyed Nevadans consider abortion the most important issue) and Harris is outperforming Trump on being trusted on the issue by 31 percent, and so abortion could play a decisive role here as well.

What abortion could mean for the 2024 election 

Given the differences in bans and ballot measures, abortion will likely have varying impacts on the presidential race in different swing states. The replacement of President Joe Biden with Vice President Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket means the Democrats have an articulate and empathetic voice about the harm that abortion bans have caused. This message on abortion could help Harris get across the finish line in some swing states.


About the author

Daniel J. Schulte

Dr. Daniel J. Schulte is an associate lecturer in the Department of Political Science, at University College London. His research interests include morality politics, authoritarianism, women’s rights, democratic backsliding, and methods. For more about his research, you can find him on his website: https://danieljschulte.com/

Posted In: Justice and Domestic Affairs

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