The 2024 election has seen the return of states being referred to as blue, red and purple, with the addition of potential “tipping point” states. Drawing on the 2020 presidential election results, Peter Finn takes us through the meaning of these labels and what they might mean for the contest for the US Electoral College – and consequently the White House. 

• This article is part of ‘The 2024 Elections’ series curated by Peter Finn (Kingston University). Ahead of the 2024 election, this series is exploring US elections at the state and national level. If you are interested in contributing to the series, contact Peter Finn (p.finn@kingston.ac.uk).

Among the colourful terms you may have heard during the 2024 – and in other elections – season are those to describe US states: blue, red and purple. And then there are other terms that sound more active: battleground, swing, and tipping point. While these shorthands can feel confusing, they’re important, as they will help determine who wins the White House this November.

Table 1 below shows the number of Electoral College votes in the top 10 blue and red states (as measured by the percentage of the vote for president in that state) that went to either current President Joe Biden or the then President Donald Trump in 2020. It also shows the states that the Cook Political Report rates as either solid, likely or as leaning towards the Republican or Democratic parties. Purple states are the seven states seen as likely to vote for either party in 2024; this number includes the state most likely to be the one that gives either side enough Electoral College votes needed to win the presidency – commonly discussed as the tipping point state. Table 1 shows that if either party wins all its 2020 top ten states, plus those that currently are rated as solid, likely, or leaning towards them, as well as sweeping all seven of the purple states, then they will win the Electoral College by a respectable margin above the 270 Electoral Votes which are needed.

Table 1 – Potential Electoral College votes in 2024 for blue, red, purple, and tipping point states

Let’s look at each type of state in more detail.

Blue States

Often used as shorthand for states that are dominated by the Democratic Party, the term blue state denotes those that are generally, though not exclusively, clustered on or near the two coasts and, to a lesser degree, in the upper Midwest. The two largest, New York and California, which have 28 and 54 Electoral College votes, are cultural and economic powerhouses in and of themselves, with economies to rival those of many large countries.

Such states are generally associated with liberal policies such as furthering the rights of underrepresented groups, utilising government to narrow inequalities, and protecting reproductive rights. One should, however, be careful of viewing even the bluest of states as a monolith in political terms, as even heavily blue states such as Massachusetts can ‘have a flare’ of occasionally electing Republicans. Massachusetts, for instance, elected a Republican Governor, Charlie Baker, between 2015-2023.

Photo by Clay Banks on Unsplash

As seen in Table 2, Washington D.C. had by far the highest percentage of people voting for President Joe Biden in 2020, at 92 percent. Below that, the most solidly blue states had votes in favour of Biden of between 66 percent and 59 percent. Between them, the 82 Electoral College votes from New York and California are larger than the collective count of 45 from the other seven states and Washington D.C. They also play a large part in ensuring that the Electoral College votes the Democratic Party can bank from these nine states and Washington D.C. are more than double those that the Republican Party can count on from the top 10 states listed in Table 3.

Table 2 – Top 10 Blue States in the 2020 presidential election

Red States

Shorthand for states dominated by the Republican Party, the term Red State is used to signify states that largely span the huge land mass between the two coasts, with the odd coastal outposts such as South Carolina (not listed in the top 10 below, but solidly Republican as in 2020, 55 percent of the state’s vote went to Trump, and 43 percent to Biden). By far the two largest red states are Texas and Florida, who have 40 and 30 Electoral College votes respectively in 2024. Yet neither actually makes it into the top 10 red states by vote share shown in Table 3, a fact that leads to the significant differences between the Democratic and Republican Electoral College votes totals in Tables 2 and 3. Texas is the second largest state by population, and has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since Jimmy Carter was elected president in 1976, but just 52 percent of voters in the state voted for then President Trump in 2020. A perennial question in US electoral politics is when, and if, Texas will actually start to become a purple (and in the mind of Democrats, blue) state as a result of demographic changes. However, on balance, it seems this shift has yet to take place, though in 2020 it was listed as a ‘Tossup’ by the BBC.

Florida, meanwhile, voted for a Democratic candidate as recently as 2012, when the state cast a second consecutive vote for President Barack Obama. As of early October 2024, the 538 poll average for Florida had Trump leading Harris by four percent, which suggests that, while the state is still close, Trump is more likely, if not certain, to take Florida’s Electoral College votes.

Though it is fair to say that the Trump years have made it slightly harder to identify a core set of Republican Party policies: red states are generally associated with seeking smaller government and a lower tax burden, and conservative policies such as restrictions on provisions for immigrants and reproductive rights. Yet, as with blue states, one should be careful making broad generalisations about red states. In Missouri, where 57 percent voted for Trump in 2020, Robynn Kuhlmann⁠ of the University of Central Missouri notes that there appears to be an ‘incongruence’ between policy adopted by the Republican dominated state government in Missouri on reproductive rights, that broadly reflect the national Republican stance of restricting reproductive rights, and the opinions of Missouri residents. This difference appears to be showing in support of a ballot measure in Missouri titled ‘Amendment 3, Right to Reproductive Freedom Initiative’, that would add a right to reproductive freedom to the Missouri constitution. An August 2024 Saint Louis University/YouGov poll, for instance, found broad support for Amendment 3, with this support having grown eight percent since February 2024.

As per Table 3, the state with the highest percentage of Republican voters in 2020 was Wyoming, with seven in ten voting for then President Trump. West Virginia was just behind at 69 percent, with another eight states, including Oklahoma Alabama and Tennessee all having over six in ten voters casting their ballot for Trump. The importance of Florida and Texas to the Republican coalition is shown by the fact that the 70 electoral College votes from these two States is higher than the sum of the top 10 Republican States listed in Table 3.

Table 3 – Top 10 Red States in the 2020 presidential election

Purple and Tipping Point States

Purple, or swing, states (also frequently called battleground states) are a small group of states that do not neatly fit into the Blue State or Red State boxes. Both Trump and Harris appear to be capable of winning in these states in 2024. The group is dynamic, and states can enter and leave this group as state and national politics evolves (until relatively recently, for instance, Florida was discussed as a swing state). At present, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are discussed as swing states.

In presidential elections, or contested house or senate elections, those living in these states are saturated with political advertising, as both parties attempt to parlay small differences in state level ballots into national level impact.

As seen in Table 4, the seven swing states were all close in 2020, with Michigan being the only state of the seven where either party gained more than 50 percent of the vote. In all other six states, neither party gained higher than 50 percent of the vote in a state, with the difference between the two parties across all seven between the three percent in Michigan and the almost dead heats that occurred as both parties gained 49 percent of the vote in both Arizona (where the difference between the parties overall was just 10,457 votes) and Wisconsin (where the difference between the parties was 20,682 votes). In short, all seven are incredibly tight, and slight changes in vote percentages in any of them could have a large national impact.

Table 4 – 2024 Purple States

Even more select than swing states, the tipping point state in any presidential election is the state that will allow a presidential candidate to reach the 270 Electoral College votes needed to be victorious. In 2020, the tipping point state was Wisconsin, and as of early October Harris is, just about, ahead, though certainly within the margin of error.

There is a general agreement that Pennsylvania is the most likely tipping point state in 2024. As shown above, it has the largest number of Electoral College votes of any swing state. Polling in the state is essentially tied, meaning that incredibly fine margins in the state could decide who sits in 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue after inauguration day in January 2025.

• All polling numbers were correct at the date of this article’s publication.
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• Note: This article gives the views of the author, and not the position of USAPP – American Politics and Policy, nor the London School of Economics.
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