The impact of the 2024 US presidential election results will have global implications. Ben Clements and Alex Waddan track the popularity of US presidential candidates in the UK since 2004, finding that the British public have tended to support Democratic presidential candidates by a significant margin. They write that while the British public, including Conservative voters, generally support Democratic candidates – including Kamala Harris – prominent political figures on the UK right have expressed support for Donald Trump. 

With the upcoming US presidential election and the implications of a Kamala Harris or Donald Trump presidency being the subject of speculation in many countries, what have been the views of the public and politicians in Britain, one of the US’ closest allies?

The Democratic candidate, please

Recent evidence shows that the British public have tended to prefer Democratic candidates for presidential elections. In 2004, when George Bush was re-elected, beating John Kerry, polling by YouGov and Ipsos MORI showed the public preferred the Democratic candidate. The tendency to favour Democratic candidates was also evident at the 2008 election (Table 1), with higher support for Democratic candidates in general and then for Barack Obama compared John McCain.

Table 1 – British public’s preferences for the 2008 US presidential election

Source: Compiled from YouGov polling.

Similarly, the British public showed clear support for Obama over Mitt Romney during the 2012 presidential election (Figure 1), a preference seen in each party support group (just 11 percent of Conservative voters favoured the Republican candidate).

Figure 1 – British public’s preferences for the 2012 US presidential election 

Source: Compiled from YouGov polling.

In 2016, Democratic leanings were again noticeable, as the public was more likely to back Hillary Clinton than Trump (Figure 2). Like supporters of Labour and the Liberal Democrats, Conservative voters supported Clinton (63 percent versus just 10 percent for Trump). The pattern was different amongst UKIP (a Eurosceptic right-wing political party) voters, who were split across the two candidates (30 percent for Clinton and 32 percent for Trump).

Figure 2 – British public’s preferences for the 2016 US presidential election 

Source: Compiled from YouGov polling.

In the run-up to the 2020 election, the public was much more likely to support Biden than Trump (Figure 3). This was the case for Labour and Liberal Democrat voters. Conservative support was more divided but still favoured Biden, more so in the second poll.

Figure 3  British Public’s preferences for the 2020 US presidential election

Source: Compiled from YouGov polling.

If we move from electoral preferences to general evaluations, polling – based on YouGov’s quarterly tracker – shows that Obama is much more popular in Britain than other presidents, (Figure 4). Obama’s average likeability rating stands at 68.9 percent, far ahead of 31.4 percent for Joe Biden, with other presidents rated even lower (18.8 percent for Donald Trump; 21.6 percent for Bush; and 25.6 percent for Clinton).

Figure 4 – Popularity of current and recent US presidents in Britain (percent really like or like) 

Source: Compiled from YouGov’s quarterly tracker

The 2024 presidential election: The public 

What about the current candidates for the White House? Recent polling shows greater backing in the UK for Biden and then Kamala Harris compared to Trump (Figure 5). The three 2024 polls show overwhelming backing for Biden or Harris amongst Labour and Liberal Democrat voters, with Conservative voters split between the Republican and Democrat candidates but always favouring the latter, with a majority backing Harris in September 2024. Even so, the likeability ratings for Harris as Vice President have been on the low side (ranging from 21-32 percent).

Figure 5 – British public’s preferences for the US 2024 presidential election 

Source: Compiled from YouGov polling.

Reform Party (the successor party to UKIP) voters, in September 2024, dissented from this pattern of party-political support: 55 percent backed Trump and 25 percent supported Harris. Other evidence shows Reform Party supporters holding unfavourable views of Biden and Harris and favourable opinions of Trump.

“V20240723LJ-0312” by The White House is United States government work

Why has the British public shown this preference for Democratic candidates? Both Bush (particularly after the 2003 Iraq War) and Trump were generally unpopular in their role on the international stage, with Obama rated much more positively. The same divergence is evident in assessments of the US’ world leadership during their presidencies. These evaluations may have shaped preferences for the presidency. The unpopularity of Bush and Trump’s foreign policy records may have tarnished the Republican Party’s image in the eyes of the British public. Looking at preferences for the 2024 election, Trump’s was rated unfavourably during his first term as president, which included often unwelcome Twitter forays into British politics.

The 2024 presidential election: politicians 

If the British public’s preference for Democrats is evident, the country’s political leaders are more circumspect in choosing a side. This is unsurprising given they wish to maintain a positive, or least a cordial, relationship with whomever is in the White House. In May 2024, as shadow foreign secretary David Lammy visited congressional Republicans and conservative think tanks in Washington DC. He reflected that a Labour government “will always work with the United States, whatever the weather and whoever wins”. It is notable, however, that Trump’s capacity to polarise onlookers and provoke undiplomatic responses is not confined to the US. Lammy penned a 2018 Time article that cited a PEW research poll saying that 89 percent of the British public thought Trump “arrogant”, before concluding that he was a “woman-hating, neo-Nazi-sympathizing sociopath” who represented “a profound threat to the international order”.

The UK Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer, had never been quite so candid in his criticism of Trump, though in 2019 (when he was a member of the Labour Party’s shadow cabinet), he tweeted that Trump’s endorsement of Boris Johnson to be the new Tory leader and Prime Minister “tells you everything you need to know about what is wrong with Boris Johnson’s politics and why he isn’t fit to be Prime Minister.” As Prime Minister, Starmer treads more carefully. In September 2024 he dined with Trump for two hours in New York despite being unable to arrange a similar meeting with Harris.

Starmer’s outreach to the potential future president in 2024 befitted a new government seeking to maintain influence with its powerful ally, however strong the preference of Labour supporters for a Harris victory. While most Conservative supporters favoured Harris in September, some recent Conservative politicians, out of office, have championed Trump. In January 2024, if with a qualifying caveat about support for Ukraine, Boris Johnson wrote that the return of “a Trump presidency can be a big win for the world.” Less than a month before the US election, Johnson was “fundamentally optimistic about a Trump presidency.”

Liz Truss, Johnson’s successor, who was Prime Minister for 29 days in 2022, was even more enthusiastic in her Trump endorsement. She also spoke of the need for a cross-Atlantic unity of purpose on the right of politics: “under Donald Trump when he was president of the United States, the world was safer”, adding “I want to work with fellow conservatives to take on what I believe is a real threat of Western society and civilization being undermined by left-wing extreme ideas.” As the UK Conservative Party continues its leadership contest in the fall of 2024, one of the two remaining contenders, Robert Jenrick, provided clear backing for Trump in August but, more recently, talked in general terms about Conservatives naturally supporting Republican candidates.

If the evidence shows that Johnson and Truss’s enthusiasm for the former president is not shared by most Conservatives, there is greater harmony in the views of Reform supporters and Nigel Farage. Farage was in fact an early backer of Trump, attending the Republican National Convention (RNC) in Cleveland shortly after the June 2016 Brexit vote in the UK. In 2024, with Farage attending the RNC in Milwaukee, sources close to Trump reflected that it was Farage, rather than Johnson or Truss, who Trump saw as the closest UK ally.

The British public are hoping for Harris 

Clearly, negative aspects of the Republican Party’s candidates and presidents – from Bush onwards – have underpinned and sustained the public’s pro-Democratic tendency. This could well apply to Biden and Harris, given their low likeability ratings, but Obama – still very popular nearly eight years after leaving office – may be the exception to this. The British public would clearly prefer a Harris win this time around, and we can speculate that the UK government would also, even if they cannot explicitly say so. But, of course, prominent figures on the right of British politics have been vocal in expressing their hopes for Trump’s return.

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