With less than a week until the 2024 presidential election, Peter Finn charts the journey from the 2022 midterms to an election which, despite a campaign which has seen extraordinary events, may come down to the results in just seven swing states.
- This article is part of ‘The 2024 Elections’ series curated by Peter Finn (Kingston University). Ahead of the 2024 election, this series is exploring US elections at the state and national level. If you are interested in contributing to the series, contact Peter Finn (p.finn@kingston.ac.uk).
Following the November 2022 midterm elections, both Democrats and Republicans had cause for cautious optimism, as well as reasons for trepidation as they looked forward to the 2024 presidential election. As seen in Table 1, the headline takeaways federally from the midterms were that the Democratic Party increased their Senate majority by one and the Republican Party took the majority in the House of Representatives.
Table 1 – 2020/22 general and midterm election results and the current state of play in the US House of Representatives, Senate, and the Presidency
2020/22 results | Current state of play | |
---|---|---|
House of Representatives | 2022 Result: Republicans: 222 (22 seats flipped) Democrats: 213 (6 seats flipped) Speaker: Kevin McCarthy (CA) | Republicans: 220 Democrats: 211 4 vacant seats Speaker: Mike Johnson (LA) |
Senate | 2022 Result: Republicans: 49 (29 seats not up for election) Democrats: 51 (1 seat flipped, 36 seats not up for election, 51 included 3 independent senators who caucus with Democrats)* *See list on right minus Manchin, who registered independent in May 2024 | Republicans: 49 Democrats: 47 Independents: 4 (Joe Manchin (WV), Kyrsten Sinema (AZ), Angus S. King, Jr. (ME), Bernie Sanders (VT)) |
Presidency | 2020 Result: Joe Biden 306 Electoral College votes/ Donald Trump 232 Electoral College votes | Joe Biden (Democrat) Democratic nominee: Kamala Harris Republican nominee: Donald Trump |
Sources: CNN; CNN; Congressional Research Service; US Senate
Following the 2022 midterms, the Democrats increased their Senate majority by one to 51 via a runoff in Georgia in early December. Just after the Georgia runoff, however, Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema became an independent who caucused with the Democrats during the 118th Congress rather than a formal party member. Similarly, Joe Manchin of West Virginia also changed his registration from Democratic to independent in May 2024. Sinema and Manchin joined Angus S. King, Jr of Maine and Bernie Sanders of Vermont as independents who caucus with the Democrats.
In the House of Representatives, meanwhile, Republicans flipped 22 seats and the chamber, eking out a small majority of four despite a divided and restive caucus. Tensions within the House GOP quickly came to the fore as it took 15 rounds of voting to elect Californian Kevin McCarthy as Speaker in early January 2023. In September 2023, McCarthy agreed to a short-term government funding bill, leading to a motion to vacate him as Speaker. McCarthy was ousted on October 3 2023 and replaced with Mike Johnson of Louisiana on October 25.
Until the summer of 2024 it appeared that the presidential race would be a rerun of 2020, with neither former President Donald Trump nor President Joe Biden facing any serious competition for either the Republican or Democratic nominations for president. Following a stumbling debate performance against Trump at the end of June, however, Biden stood down and endorsed his Vice President Kamala Harris in July 2024.
Republicans
Donald Trump announced his formal candidacy for the Republican nomination after the 2022 midterms on November 16 2022. As seen in Table 2 below, he formally secured the Republican nomination on March 12, 2024. On May 30, 2024, he was found guilty of 34 counts related to payments made to adult film star Stormy Daniels during the 2016 presidential election campaign. As I noted at the time, nothing remotely like this has ever happened to a former US president. The final outcome of this case is outstanding, with sentencing scheduled for after the election, on November 26.
“P20220225AS-2672” by The White House is United States government work.
On June 27 a presidential debate between Trump and Biden was hosted by CNN in Atlanta, Georgia. As noted, it led to Biden dropping out. For Trump, however, despite the usual litany of misinformation associated with his public statements, the debate showcased his ability, on occasion, to control his performance, allowing critiques to fall squarely on Biden’s shoulders. On July 13, at a rally in Pennsylvania, there was an attempt to assassinate Trump. Trump was shot in the ear, while one person was killed, and two others were injured. Just two days later Trump announced Ohio Senator JD Vance as his Vice-Presidential nominee during the Republican convention in Milwaukee Wisconsin.
On September 10 Trump faced Harris in a debate hosted by ABC News in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. On this occasion, however, Harris successfully goaded Trump into defending the sizes of crowds at his rallies in a debate where his playbook appeared to be wearing thin. Five days later a second assassination attempt against Trump was thwarted, while Vance faced Walz in a debate hosted by CBS in New York City on October 1.
Table 2 – Key events for the Republican Party Spring-Autumn 2024
Date | Event |
---|---|
March 12 | Trump formally secures Republican nomination for President |
May 30 | - Trump found guilty on 34 counts related to payments made to adult film star Stormy Daniels during the 2016 presidential election campaign - Sentencing scheduled for November, 26 2024 |
June 27 | Presidential nominee debate: Biden-Trump, hosted by CNN debate in Atlanta |
July 13 | First Trump assassination attempt |
July 15-18 | - Republican Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin - Trump announces Ohio Senator JD Vance as his Vice-Presidential nominee on July 15 |
September 10 | Presidential nominee debate: Harris-Trump, hosted by ABC News in Philadelphia |
September 15 | Second assassination attempt against Trump |
October 1 | Vice Presidential nominee debate: Walz-Vance, hosted by CBS in New York |
Source: BBC; Colvin: C-SPAN; Finn; Finn; Finn; Finn
Democrats
Biden formally announced his candidacy for the Democratic nominee for president in April 2023, not facing a serious challenge to his position as front runner prior to formally securing the nomination on March 12 2024. He framed the election against Trump as a choice between the furthering of individual rights and attempts to restrict them by Trump and the Republican Party. In early 2024 accusations that Biden was not able to deal with the rigors of being president were given heft by a report from Special Counsel Robert K. Hur into the treatment of classified material by Biden. Hur characterised Biden as being hampered by a poor memory.
It was, however, the presidential debate with Trump in late June that brought these critiques to a head, when Biden put in a lacklustre performance. At times he struggled to clearly articulate his answers, whilst at others he seemed to lack energy. This performance led to a seemingly endless media story about the critical faculties of Biden as the political gravity shifted away from the president, with increasing numbers of Democrats going on record to encourage him to drop out of the presidential race or to think about his position. Within a month, he had stood down as the Democratic nominee for president, recommending Vice President Kamala Harris as his replacement. Harris quickly banked delegates, and formally secured the Democratic nomination for president on August 5. The following day Harris announced that her nomination for vice president was Minnesota Governor Tim Walz. Two weeks later, the Democratic Convention occurred in Chicago, Illinois.
Following Biden’s exit from the presidential race, Harris benefited from both a boost in fundraising and a much better standing in the polls than Biden. When Biden stepped down he trailed Trump by 40.2 percent to 43.5 percent in the national 538 poll average (with Robert F. Kennedy Jr at 8.7 percent), with the poll average in the key swing state (and likely tipping point state) of Pennsylvania being 41.1 percent for Biden and 45.5 percent for Trump (7.3 percent for Kennedy). By contrast, as of October 27 Harris was at 48.1 percent nationally and 47.7 percent in Pennsylvania with Trump at 46.7 percent nationally and 48 percent in Pennsylvania.
Table 3 – Key events for the Democratic Party Spring-Autumn 2024
Date | Event |
---|---|
March 12 | Biden formally secures Democratic nomination for President |
June 27 | Presidential nominee debate: Biden-Trump, hosted by CNN in Atlanta |
July 21 | Biden stands down |
August 5 | Harris formally secured Democratic nomination for presidency |
August 6 | Harris announces Minnesota governor Tim Walz as her Vice-Presidential nominee |
August 19-22 | Democratic Convention in Chicago, Illinois |
September 10 | Presidential nominee debate: Harris-Trump, hosted by ABC News in Philadelphia |
October 1 | Vice Presidential nominee debate: Walz-Vance, hosted by CBS in New York |
Sources: Azari; Finn; Finn; Kim; Miller; Yilek
November 5, 2024
Though it seems likely that Harris, like every Democratic nominee since 2004, will win the popular vote at the presidential level, the margins between Harris and Trump are exceedingly tight, and relate to the Electoral College rather than the popular vote: with the victor likely carving a path through the seven swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and the 93 electoral College votes they offer.
As I explored in a recent post, these states were all close in 2020, with Michigan being the only one where either party gained more than 50 percent of the vote. In all the other six states, neither party gained higher than 50 percent of the vote four years ago. The difference between the two parties across all seven states was between the three percent in Michigan, and the almost dead heats that occurred as both parties gained 49 percent of the vote in both Arizona (where the difference between the parties overall was just 10,457 votes) and Wisconsin (where the difference between the parties was 20,682 votes).
It appears that the tipping point state that acts as the piece of the electoral jigsaw that allows either side to reach the 270 Electoral College votes needed may end up being Pennsylvania, with its 19 votes. However, all seven swing states are incredibly tight and within the margin of error, meaning slight changes in any of them could change the course of the race, and thus who next sits in the White House.
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- Note: This article gives the views of the author, and not the position of USAPP – American Politics and Policy, nor the London School of Economics.
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