On November 2nd, just days before the 2024 presidential election, a new poll of Iowa voters was released, showing Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by three percentage points. Andrew Green looks at the importance of the poll in what has been considered to be a red state. He writes that if the poll is accurate, then the state’s Electoral Votes may well be in play as well as two of the Hawkeye State’s currently Republican-held US House seats.
- This article is part of ‘The 2024 Elections’ series curated by Peter Finn (Kingston University). Ahead of the 2024 election, this series is exploring US elections at the state and national level. If you are interested in contributing to the series, contact Peter Finn (p.finn@kingston.ac.uk).
The release of the October Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shook the American political landscape like an earthquake on the Saturday evening before the country goes to the polls on Tuesday. The October release showed Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by three percentage points in the Hawkeye State. While within the margin of error (±3.4 percent), the results followed the trend identified in the September Iowa Poll that showed Harris narrowing the gap over Trump after replacing President Joe Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket in July.
Also striking about the poll were the results of the generic ballot test for the four Congressional seats up for grabs this cycle. Currently, all four seats are held by Republicans who are seeking another term in the US House. The results, however, show that the Democratic candidates in IA-1 (Christina Bohannon) and IA-3 (Lanon Baccam) are leading entering the final week of the campaign. Incumbents Ashley Hinson in IA-2 and Randy Feenstra in IA-4 also have leads in their respective districts. If the results hold after the votes are counted, Iowa’s Congressional delegation could be split between the major parties, and flipping two Republican seats could aid the Democrats as they attempt to flip the US House.
What may be driving increased support for Harris in Iowa
The support for Harris in the October Iowa Poll is driven by several factors. First, the results suggest that Harris has consolidated the Democratic base in Iowa as 97 percent of Democratic respondents indicated that they had already voted for her or intended to vote for her on Election Day. Second, No-Party Voters appear to have been breaking toward Harris over the last month. A cohort of voters Trump won in both 2016 and 2020; No-Party Voter respondents favored Harris 46 percent-39 percent. Even though Trump maintains a lead with men who are No-Party Voters (47 percent-37 percent), that lead has shrunk significantly from the 35-point gap found in 2016 exit polls of Iowa voters. Finally, the poll’s results suggest that support for Harris is driven by women voters across the state. Overall, her lead with women voters in the state is 20 points (56 percent-36 percent). However, Harris enjoys a nearly 2-to-1 advantage with women who are No-Party Voters (57 percent-29 percent) and more than a 2-to-1 advantage with women over the age of 65 (63 percent-28 percent).
“Elizabeth Warren at Weeks Middle School” by Phil Roeder is licensed under CC BY 2.0
Much of the discussion on the results of the October Iowa Poll has focused on the accuracy and reliability of the poll’s results. In other words, does the sample reflect what the electorate will look like on Election Day? Regardless, the results do suggest that Vice President Harris could have the political winds at her back at exactly the right time of the campaign. In my book on the 2016 presidential campaign in Iowa, I found that a lack of enthusiasm among Iowa Democrats was a major explanatory factor in former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s loss in the state identified by many state and local party leaders. Not only did this impact the vote choice of Iowa Democrats, it also impacted their ability to recruit volunteers for local canvassing events and to attract Democrats to Clinton’s political events in the state.
Anecdotally, I have been surprised over the last month at the smaller number of Trump signs and flags posted in yards in my small, south central Iowa community and the larger than expected number of Harris-Walz (and Christina Bohannon) signs which are up in many yards throughout our community. In a recent column, Art Cullen, editor of the Storm Lake Times, commented similarly about political signs and flags in his northwest Iowa community. While not confirmed by an observational analysis, this anecdotal trend could be a sign of support softening among Republicans who were once Trump supporters in our community who may silently vote for Harris or roll-off the presidential race altogether. The converse could also be true, however: The lack of yard signs could be a sign of those “hidden Trump voters” who will quietly vote for Trump on election day.
Is Iowa still a safe red state?
Over the last four years, I have written about Iowa’s transition from swing state to safe state, including a March 2024 piece which posited that Trump and the four Republican Congressional incumbents had to be viewed as the favorites in the 2024 election. If the difference in public displays of candidate preference in Iowa communities coupled with the October Iowa Poll is indicative of political momentum for Vice President Harris in the Iowa electorate, then Iowa’s Electoral College votes could be in play. That said, it is important to note that Trump could still win Iowa. The Harris lead is well within the poll’s margin of error and the two-party share of the vote only amounts to 91 percent of respondents leaving around nine percent who could still swing toward the former president.
However, even if the October Iowa Poll is “off” by as many as five to seven points in the presidential race, the implications for down-ballot races in Iowa are significant. A two- to four-point win by Trump could be accompanied by Democratic wins in the IA-1 and IA-3 US House races. This happened as recently as 2020 when Trump won the popular vote in IA-3 by a fraction of a percentage point and Representative Cindy Axne, the Democratic incumbent, won the district by a little over a point. Similarly, in 2016 Trump won the popular vote in IA-2 by four percent and Representative Dave Loebsack, the Democratic incumbent, won the district by seven percent. A narrow Trump victory could also have down-ballot effects on state legislative races as well which have recently been dominated by Republicans. Finally, a thin Iowa victory for Trump could be sign of similar trends in momentum in the key swing states, especially states with a demographic makeup similar to Iowa (for example, Wisconsin) and could put other states once thought as safely Republican in play.
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