In the lead up to the 2024 presidential election, the Republican nominee, former President Donald Trump, faced two assassination attempts. Kristian Alexander writes that these attempts, as well as the January 6, 2021, Capitol attack, foreshadow the potential for further violence as the election progresses beyond Election Day itself. When violence becomes a viable political tool, he argues, public trust in democracy is undermined, potentially deterring future political participation.
The 2024 US presidential election has been poised to be one of the most contentious in recent history, positioning two ideologically opposed candidates against each other. Both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris represent starkly different visions for the nation, with Trump’s populist, nationalist rhetoric energizing a loyal base while provoking sharp criticism from opponents, and Harris’s progressive, policy-focused approach rallying liberal support but drawing ire from the right. Their contrasting styles and ideologies have heightened political divides, igniting passionate reactions across the political spectrum.
The deeply polarized environment has raised concerns that the 2024 election could spark political violence, with extremist groups and partisan factions potentially exploiting these divisions. Both far-right and far-left factions have displayed a willingness to use violence in pursuit of their agendas, feeding off distrust in government institutions, media, and law enforcement. Social media platforms and certain news outlets have exacerbated this environment, amplifying misinformation and conspiracy theories that fuel public suspicion and radicalization.
The shadow of the last election looms over this year’s. On January 6, 2021, Trump supporters, motivated by the belief that the election had been stolen, stormed the US Capitol as the vote to certify the Electoral College victory of Joseph Biden Jr. was about to take place. The Capitol building was vandalized, people injured, and lives lost. The riot remains a vivid reminder of the risks when ideological divides escalate to violence. Since then, politically motivated attacks have surged, targeting officials, journalists, and ordinary citizens.
Social justice protests by certain far-left factions also devolved into destructive violence in 2020. Although originally sparked by protests against police violence, the actions escalated as some groups expressed broader anti-government and anti-capitalist sentiments. Cities such as Portland saw clashes with law enforcement, vandalism, and arson.
“A polling station in Washington DC, 5 No” (CC BY-SA 2.0) by oscepa
The specter of political violence surrounding the 2024 US presidential election is underscored by recent assassination attempts on one of the candidates, Donald J. Trump. These incidents reflect the intensity of political animosity and the alarming willingness of some to resort to extreme measures. The attempts on Trump’s life serve as a troubling indicator of the heightened risks faced by public figures in this polarized climate and foreshadow the potential for further violence as the election progresses.
Two dates that could see conflict boil over
On Election Day, most Americans cast their votes without major issues, with only isolated incidents that were swiftly managed by election officials and law enforcement. In battleground states like Pennsylvania, voters encountered manageable delays, minor technical issues, and weather challenges that impacted turnout in some areas. Certain precincts had extended voting hours due to tabulator malfunctions, and isolated bomb threats briefly disrupted polling in Georgia. Elsewhere, there were several cases of voter intimidation, including an incident in Florida, a few days prior to the elections, where an individual brandished a machete, allegedly targeting Democratic voters. In New York, a man was arrested for threatening violence after frustrations over voting eligibility, while hoax reports of active shooters at polling sites in Maine highlighted how misinformation could stoke anxiety. These incidents underscored the tense environment surrounding the election, yet the process remained largely intact.
Following yesterday’s election a particularly sensitive point in the electoral process is the counting of the Electoral Votes by Congress, planned for January 6th, 2025. If either candidate disputes the legitimacy of the count, groups on both sides could mobilize protests in Washington, D.C., and state capitals, heightening the risk of violent confrontations. The January 6th 2021 Capitol Hill riot demonstrated the potential for such events to spiral into chaos when political figures call for action.
Inauguration Day could also become a flashpoint if substantial segments of the public refuse to recognize the incoming president as legitimate. Continued challenges to the election outcome by either Trump or Harris, or their allies, could galvanize followers to disrupt the proceedings. For extremist groups, the inauguration represents a high-visibility opportunity to mobilize, with the risk of violent confrontation magnified by media attention.
Low trust in democratic institutions fuels misinformation, heightens divide
Algorithms designed to prioritize engagement inadvertently amplify extreme content, radicalizing users and fostering an atmosphere ripe for exploitation. Skepticism towards government institutions, law enforcement, and the media has deepened, weakening the democratic process and emboldening those inclined toward violence.
Claims of election interference and voter fraud, often lacking credible evidence, permeate public discourse, undermining faith in the electoral system and creating a pretext for violence from those who believe they are defending democracy. Social media misinformation could further amplify claims of electoral theft, motivating individuals or groups to act violently in protest. In the event of a close or contested election, prolonged delays and legal battles could become major flashpoints for unrest. If both Trump and Harris contest the results in swing states, uncertainty could frustrate voters and fuel suspicions of manipulation, as seen in 2020.
Foreign states such as Russia, China, and Iran have also been implicated in influence operations aimed at fuelling discord within the US By spreading divisive narratives on social media, these actors exploit American fault lines on issues such as racial inequality, gun control, immigration, and abortion, aiming to distract the US government and weaken its democratic standing.
Russia has been linked to social media campaigns using bots and troll farms to spread divisive narratives on hot-button issues, including racial inequality, vaccine skepticism, and political polarization. In preparation for the 2024 election, US intelligence agencies have flagged an increase in online Russian-origin accounts pushing claims about electoral fraud, aiming to erode confidence in the US democratic system. This tactic mirrors Russia’s activities during the 2016 and 2020 elections, where the Internet Research Agency was found to target Americans with inflammatory posts designed to incite division.
The consequences of political violence on American democracy
Political violence erodes public trust in democracy and deters political participation. Intimidation at polling stations, public gatherings, or during post-election certification processes can discourage citizens from voting or protesting, impacting turnout and potentially skewing election outcomes. When violence becomes a viable political tool, the democratic principle of peaceful disagreement weakens, posing a long-term threat to American democracy by eroding the effectiveness of peaceful conflict resolution mechanisms.
As the 2024 election unfolds, safeguarding the electoral process and maintaining public confidence in democratic institutions will be crucial to upholding the nation’s democratic values.
- Please read our comments policy before commenting.
- Note: This article gives the views of the author, and not the position of USAPP – American Politics and Policy, nor of the London School of Economics.
- Shortened URL for this post: https://wp.me/p3I2YF-euS
