Last month, Donald Trump was elected for a second term as President of the United States. Using Trump’s campaign statements and past announcements James Rice looks at what a second Trump presidency would mean for America. He writes that Trump may try to carry out his promise to deport up to 20 million undocumented immigrants, at potentially great economic and social cost, exact retribution towards his political opponents, and potentially embolden America’s overseas competitors like China and Russia with his foreign policies.

The results of the 2024 presidential election last month came as a shock to millions of voters in the United States and millions more outside the country. As the results were confirmed, Vice President Kamala Harris conceded electoral defeat with grace and class. This lays down two markers that will echo throughout history. First, it means that the Democratic Party and its candidates have demonstrated that they support and uphold democracy and fidelity to the Constitution. Second, and in contrast, only hours before, Trump was tweeting false statements about massive cheating in Pennsylvania. We have good reason to know what he would have done had he lost, and we can make this claim based on what Trump did in January 2021: denied the 2020 election results and incited his supporters to try to overturn the government through violent means.

Based on this, we also know that he would have continued ginning up his supporters until violence was achieved. We also know that Russia was engaged in interfering in the election process by phoning in bomb scares to voting centers which were in predominant democrat precincts in Georgia, Arizona and Michigan. This should speak volumes about where Putin and Russia stand on the US election. So at least the prospect of civil unrest has been set aside at least for now. And in addition, with the Republican Party holding the House, the Senate and the Presidency, we can now observe that inflation won’t be solved overnight. As for Trump’s plan to impose massive tariffs on foreign goods, we will see how this affects ordinary Americans. Although Trump clearly fooled his supporters into thinking that tariffs are paid for by foreign countries, as we all learned in high school, tariffs are actually paid for by the consumer.

Trump’s plans for detention and deportation

Regarding Trump’s repeated promise to deport up to 20 million undocumented immigrants, we will see just how this plan is to be put into effect. Either this entire plank of Project 2025 is merely a bluff, intended to attract Trump’s core voters (which it clearly did) or the new administration will actually try to pull it off. At this point, it’s not clear as to what Trump’s inner circle will do. The election results come as a massive blow to not only the undocumented, but also to those people whose parents were undocumented, but were born in the US. But it also should be a warning of things to come for all immigrants who are Global Majority who are documented.

Any policy that Trump may implement regarding the arrest, detention and deportation of undocumented people on such a scale will cast a very wide net. Many individuals who are in the US legally will be caught up in the process and removed. Families will inevitably be separated. There will be an archipelago of detention camps, just as there were in Hong Kong during the era of Vietnamese refugees. Undocumented minors will be sent back to uncertain futures or will wind up in foster care. Elderly people will be arrested and detained. In this exercise, the cruelty will be the point.

The question that many have is how will a policy on such a scale be possible? How much will it cost? Who will pay for it? Which law enforcement agencies will carry it out? It is thought that to arrest, detain and remove even half that number would require nothing less than the military to carry it out. But this is a task that the military is totally unsuited for. As a means of justifying this policy under law, Trump has repeatedly invoked the Alien Enemies Act of 1798. This argument is obviously specious. The law specifies that it applies during times of war, and there is no war under any kind of measure apart from Trump’s own overblown rhetoric. It was last invoked during the Second World War as a pretext for the internment of 120,000 Japanese Americans, a measure that is now regarded with great shame. But at least during that time, there was a legal pretext. In the case of undocumented immigrants in 2025, there is none. Any such measure would be litigated in the courts, likely ending with a decision by the US Supreme Court. As to how they would rule, I dare not speculate here, but any such decision would likely trample several of the protections found in the Constitution, not the least being the right to due process found in the Fifth Amendment.

But apart from shredding the rights vested in the Constitution, another issue would be the sheer cost involved in such an undertaking; estimates vary from several billion to hundreds of billions of dollars. Moreover, as millions of workers would be removed from their jobs (all of which they pay taxes on) the economy would surely be adversely affected. Putting it bluntly, who would pick the produce, who would do the housing construction jobs, who would fill those positions? If native born Americans were interested in taking up those jobs at that pay, they would surely have them.

Trump’s plans for retribution

One of Trump’s recurring themes on the campaign trail was his promise to his supporters that he would “be their retribution.” Trump has even gone so far as to refer to his fellow Americans as “the enemy within.” Apart from the fact that no candidate for the presidency has ever used such language, there is the chilling prospect that Trump would try to carry out revenge or as he puts it, “retribution” on his political enemies. He has already called for many of his critics to be jailed or even executed. These include, Liz Cheney, Adam Schiff, Adam Kinzinger, all the Biden family, the January 6 Select Committee, General Milley, General Mattis, General Kelly, former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Bill and Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Mark Zuckerberg, and many other members of both the political opposition and his own administration. Another question is, will Trump’s program of retribution extend to a campaign against the free press, or as he calls it, the “fake news media”? He has already argued for shutting down CBS, NBC and other media outlets that he has deemed to be unfriendly.

Photo by The Now Time on Unsplash

One thing is certain though, as the GOP will have control of the House and Senate from 2025, Trump will likely move fast immediately following his inauguration. As Trump’s first administration was put together in such a hurry and was so chaotic, he didn’t accomplish as much as he could have. This time, it will likely be different. This time, there is a well-oiled cadre of supporters that seek to gut the civil service and install a highly partisan body that will be loyal to Trump personally. All those campaign promises about cutting entire agencies such as the Department of Education, Health and Human Services, etc., will be kept. By taking those kinds of measures Trump will magnify his personal standing in the eyes of his core supporters and will garner endless news cycles, things which Trump has always sought. Robert Kennedy Jr., as the czar of health, may “go crazy” on many aspects of public health just as was promised by Trump only recently. It seems bizarre to be living at a time where the cabinet level official with the responsibility for public health is an avowed anti-vaxxer.

Trump’s plans on policy

As for another plank of Project 2025, women’s reproductive health, it is thought that in this area, Trump will be inclined to move more cautiously. Following the Supreme Court’s reversal of Roe v. Wade, as Trump has stated countless times, the issue of abortion has reverted to the individual states. While this is broadly correct, what the decision in Dobbs has done is to create a patchwork of conflicting jurisdictions, some of which impose near total bans on abortion and others that do not. However, as in Texas there have been moves to take action against women who seek abortions in other states. In addition, there have been serious moves to ban contraceptive measures such as mifepristone. Given the Republican’s perceived mandate in the recent election, state governments in jurisdictions such as Texas will likely attempt to broaden the restrictions that already exist on reproductive health.

One major area that the recent campaign did not focus on was foreign policy. What do Trump’s past statements indicate as to what he intends to do in his own foreign policy? Trump has repeatedly promised to “end the Ukraine war in 24 hours.” Apart from the fact that this rhetoric is patently nonsensical, it would seem to indicate that Trump intends to force a negotiated settlement between Russia and Ukraine. At present, the official stance of the Russian Federation is that Ukraine is to effectively surrender, be demilitarized, that all territories now held by Russia become a part of Russia and that all “nazis” are to be prosecuted. Should Trump actually force a peace on these terms, Russia would likely be emboldened to rearm and to continue its aggression, most likely against the Baltic states. Furthermore, any kind of similar outcome in favor of Putin would be the green light that Xi Jinping has been waiting for regarding his designs on Taiwan.

Despite all talk suggesting that there is very little difference between Trump and the previous administration, Trump sees the world through an entirely different lens than all previous presidents since the Second World War. For Trump, it’s all about transactions, as opposed to friendships and alliances. Trump has stated many times the insignificance that Taiwan represents in comparison to China (the tip of a sharpie compared to the Resolute Desk). Trump also views alliances as protection rackets. The client has got to pay up in exchange for protection. In fact, Trump has consistently spoken disparagingly of Taiwan: “Taiwan took our chip business from us.” Trump’s words and deeds suggest that he would do nothing to assist Taiwan in the event of an act of aggression by China.

During the election campaign, one of Trump’s key issues was the economy (that along with immigration). While Trump and his transition team likely have a plan to implement his program of mass deportations, it’s not clear what (if anything) Trump could do to not only “fix inflation” but also to reduce the cost of living. Only a few weeks ago, the Economist wrote that the US economy was the “envy of the world.”

While Trump’s supporters would disagree, what they don’t seem to understand that inflation has been a global problem, and that the US’s response has been faster and stronger than any other economy. So, just as Duterte’s supporters shrugged off the outstanding economic results in the Philippines by saying, “we didn’t feel it,” so Trump’s supporters said the same. The problem for Trump going forward is that there is no magic wand to bring down the cost of living. But that is the whole point. With Trump supporters (as with Duterte’s) it was never about the facts or about reason. There is a magic thinking that is operating here. With Trump it’s all about emotion, fear, anger, resentment, blame. His supporters will undoubtedly start focusing on a fresh shiny object as time goes on. 

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