From Donald Trump’s inauguration to the Supreme Court, to off year state elections, USAPP Managing Editor, Chris Gilson gives an overview of what to look out for in US politics in 2025. 

With the presidential election contest, the results of which will see Donald Trump soon returned to the White House, 2024 was an inflection point. As 2025 begins, how will the election results resonate through the United States and globally? Here’s what we know so far about what we can expect in US politics and policy this year. 

January – Trump is inaugurated and dealing with the debt ceiling 

Following his win in the 2024 presidential election on November 5^th, 2024, and the counting of electoral votes by Congress on January 6^th, the 45^th President of the United States, Donald Trump, will take the Oath of Office and become the 47^th President at noon on Monday January 20^th, 2025.

Following his swearing in, Donald Trump is expected to make an inaugural address, setting out how he intends to govern over the next four years. In January 2024, Jennifer Mercieca of Texas A&M University compared Trump’s 2017 and Joe Biden’s 2021 inaugural addresses, writing that they showed the “stark differences in how they understood the obligations of the presidency” with Trump seeing his role as protector of the US border and Biden as the caretaker of American democracy and the Constitution.

For expert commentary and analysis on how the Trump presidency may unfold, you can join us online and in person at LSE for the January 21^st Phelan US Centre roundtable discussion event, ‘Leadership or drift: what’s next for US foreign policy?’

One of the US Congress’ immediate challenges following Trump’s inauguration will be to deal with the US debt ceiling. After being suspended as part of the Federal government funding package passed by Congress at the end of last year, the statutory limit on how much the US government can spend was reinstated on January 2^nd. In a December 27^th letter to Congress, the US Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen, stated that the current debt limit would likely be reached between January 14^th and 23^rd, with the Treasury beginning to take what are known as ‘extraordinary measures’ from that point to continue to fund government spending. While these measures should give Congress a few months of leeway to act, if they fail to raise the debt ceiling, a US debt default could have significant implications for global financial markets and potentially the wider US economy. 

February – Addressing Congress 

In the year immediately following a presidential election, rather than giving a State of the Union Address, a new president will address a joint session of the US Congress, usually to outline their vision for their presidency. While such addresses to Congress – including State of the Union addresses – have taken place in January or February, Joe Biden’s first address in 2021 was at the end of April, and his final State of the Union in 2024 was in March. When Donald Trump chooses to deliver his first address to Congress remains to be seen, but it will likely be by the end of February.

“President Trump’s First 100 Days: 17” (Public Domain) by The Trump White House Archived

Writing back in 2014, John Lovett, Shaun Bevan, and Frank Baumgartner argued that popular presidents can influence Congress, especially the House, through presidential addresses like the State of the Union. With Trump keen to push the legislative agenda he outlined during the presidential election campaign, his first 100 days, potentially including a Congressional address, will set the tone for his relationship with Congress: productive, fractious, or somewhere in between, depending on the issue. 

March – A shutdown for 2025?

Separate to the US debt ceiling, funding for the federal government runs out on March 14^th under the current spending legislation agreed by Congress last December. If no spending deal is agreed by this point, then the US government will shut down. This means that key government agency activities will be curtailed, and only non-essential services and operations will be maintained.

There were two US government shutdowns during the last Trump presidency: one was over US immigration policy in early 2018, and the other over funding for the wall on the US border with Mexico in 2018-19. Both shutdowns occurred while the Republican Party held the trifecta of the US House, Senate and presidency. The GOP will hold a similar trifecta following Trump’s inauguration in January so this may be no guarantee of preventing another shutdown in March. In October 2023 the then Republican Speaker of the House, Kevin McCarthy was ousted from his role over perceived compromises with Democrats over budget bills. His replacement, Mike Johnson, will now face the challenging task of working with a restive Freedom Caucus while at the same time being pushed by President Trump’s agenda.  

June – Trump back on the global stage and the Supreme Court 

President Trump will likely attend the G7 summit in Alberta, Canada this month and the NATO summit in The Hague, the Netherlands from 24-26 June, giving the new president the opportunity to further showcase his view of global affairs and the US’ role in them.

Last November, Phelan US Centre Affiliate, Michael Cox, wrote that a second Trump administration might be a tipping point for NATO, with the former and now re-elected president’s often-stated desire to remove the US from expensive foreign commitments. 

Late June and early July sees the US Supreme Court hand down decisions in its most major cases. In 2024, the Court issued important decisions on presidential immunity and ‘Chevron deference’ (which governs the role of executive agencies in interpreting federal agencies). The Court’s docket for 2024-25 includes cases on the Biden’s administration’s restrictions on so-called ‘ghost guns’, transgender healthcare and states’ ability to moderate online content, so we may see decisions on these announced by the middle of the year.

November – Bellwether elections in New Jersey and Virginia 

2025 is what’s known as an ‘off-year’ for elections; there are no contests for the US House, Senate, or the presidency. This doesn’t mean that there are no elections to watch out for, however. On November 4^th, both New Jersey and Virginia will hold elections for governor and their state legislatures. Both state’s governors, a Democrat, and a Republican respectively, are term limited. As Peter Finn wrote in November 2024 following the presidential election:

“The contests in both states may serve as bellwethers for the Democratic Party’s near-term electoral future: Kamala Harris won New Jersey by five percentage points, down from Joe Biden’s victory margin of nearly 16 percentage points in 2020. In Virginia, meanwhile, the Democrats’ margin similarly fell from the over 10 points in 2020 to just over five (over the same period the state flipped from a Democratic to Republican Governor)”

The current New Jersey Governor, Phil Murphy, retained office in 2021 by a margin of just over three percentage points, while Virginia’s incumbent, Glenn Youngkin, won their last contest by less than two percentage points. The results in both elections may give some clues about the state of the political headwinds this year for both the Republican and Democratic parties.

2025 will also see elections for state officials including mayoral, prosecutor and sherifs across the US, all of which will have implications for local criminal justice policies. Bolts has a comprehensive round-up of these upcoming elections and their importance.

November 4^th will also mark one year to the 2026 Congressional midterm elections and three years to the 2028 presidential election. USAPP will be covering both these election cycles as they approach.

Please read our comments policy before commenting.       

Note: This article gives the views of the author, and not the position of USAPP – American Politics and Policy, nor the London School of Economics.  

Shortened URL for this post: https://wp.me/p3I2YF-eL6