On Tuesday 21 January 2025, the day after the inauguration of President Donald Trump, the Phelan US Centre hosted the panel discussion event “Leadership or drift: what’s next for US foreign policy?” Mustafa Shaukat gives an overview of the event and the Q&A segment. 

On January 21, 2025, the LSE Phelan US Centre hosted the panel discussion, Leadership or Drift: What’s Next for US Foreign Policy? Featuring prominent experts in international relations, the event explored the implications of the new US administration’s foreign policy for Europe and the wider world. Chaired by Phelan US Centre Director, Professor Peter Trubowitz, the discussion included insights from Dr. Elizabeth Ingleson, Assistant Professor in LSE’s Department of International History, Steven Erlanger, Chief Diplomatic Correspondent of The New York Times, Professor Anand Menon of King’s College London, and Professor Leslie Vinjamuri, Director of the US and Americas programme at Chatham House and SOAS University of London.

Steven Erlanger on Russia, Europe, and trade

Following introductions and opening remarks from Professor Trubowitz, Steven Erlanger analyzed Trump’s foreign policy through his disdain for multilateralism and focus on tariffs. On Ukraine, he argued that additional US support might not reverse Russia’s gains, raising the possibility of a ceasefire involving territorial concessions. Turning to Europe, he identified political vulnerabilities, particularly in France, where Marine Le Pen could rise to power. He noted that Germany’s structured system might withstand far-right pressures. Erlanger also highlighted Trump’s tariff threats to the EU while advising the UK to assert its interests in negotiations with him. On Iran, he predicted mutual interest in reviving a nuclear deal despite ongoing tensions.

Professor Leslie Vinjamuri on North America and Asia

Professor Vinjamuri highlighted the success of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement under Trump, which boosted trade by 50 percent. She noted Trump’s focus on immigration control, empowered by new executive orders. Rejecting the notion of a return to spheres of influence in reference to China, she framed Trump as a white majoritarian populist with global implications. On climate finance, she predicted reduced US support for developing nations, posing challenges for global climate efforts.

Professor Anand Menon on Brexit and globalization

Professor Menon discussed Trump’s potential impact on the UK, warning that post-Brexit assumptions about NATO and globalization are at risk. He suggested that the US might force the UK to choose between aligning with Europe or America, with increased military spending likely to strain the UK economy. Regarding Europe, he highlighted economic stagnation and Trump’s unpopularity. When asked for his advice to the British PM in the Q&A session, Professor Menon suggested the UK should prepare for reduced US security commitments. On climate policy, he predicted California’s continued green leadership despite federal rollbacks and noted limited US engagement in Africa as China and Russia expand their influence.

Dr Elizabeth Ingleson on US-China relations

Dr Ingleson emphasized the challenges in US-China relations, describing now President Donald Trump’s rhetoric of blaming China for job losses as misleading, given that most US jobs are in services. She predicted a resurgence of the US-China trade war, with tariffs and Chinese countermeasures, such as restrictions on critical minerals essential to US technology. On Taiwan, she suggested Trump might push for greater self-reliance in security while offering limited support. Her critique extended to systemic inequities in US capitalism, highlighting contradictions in opportunities for individuals post-incarceration compared to Trump’s political recovery. When asked for her advice to the British PM in the Q&A session, Professor Dr Ingleson stressed the importance of investing in Asian languages and cultural expertise to prepare for a US pivot to Asia.

Trump’s complex leadership

The event showcased the speakers’ nuanced perspectives on Trump’s approach to foreign policy, characterized by his unpredictable and nationalistic tendencies. While his focus on bilateralism and skepticism of multilateral institutions like NATO and the UN was seen as a departure from traditional US foreign policy, it was also framed as an effort to rebalance global partnerships and ensure equitable contributions from allies. The speakers highlighted Trump’s reliance on tariffs, particularly targeting countries with trade surpluses like the EU, as part of his broader “America First” agenda. They acknowledged that while these policies prioritize domestic interests and resonate with parts of the US electorate, they also pose challenges for international collaboration and global economic stability. The panel underscored the complexities of Trump’s leadership, which may reshape alliances and global trade dynamics, leaving countries like the UK navigating new trade-offs in their relationships with the US and Europe.

• Listen to the podcast of the event, ‘Leadership or drift: what’s next for US foreign policy?’ [LSE Player]
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