Last year, the US promised $500 million in military aid for the Philippines to help guard against China’s ongoing incursions into the country’s territorial waters. Jim Rice writes that the US’ more transactional foreign policy under the second Trump administration may now see the Philippines forced to confront China on its own.

In April 2024, after lengthy bipartisan negotiations, the US Congress passed an appropriations bill, which apart from providing billions for Ukraine’s defense earmarked approximately $500 million for the Philippines. According to former Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, the funds were intended to, “boost security collaboration with our oldest treaty ally in this region.” The former Secretary indicated that the aid would be spent on the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) and particularly the Philippine Coast Guard, which has been serving in the frontline against the constant incursions into Philippine territorial waters. In addition, the US and Philippine parties announced that there would be enhanced levels of military intelligence sharing.

New priorities under the Trump administration

However following the inauguration of Donald Trump in January 2025, this assistance (and indeed the US-Philippine alliance itself) has been called into question in part by the radically different priorities of the incoming Trump administration, but also by multi-billionaire, Elon Musk and Trump’s newly minted Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Musk has already blocked the work being done by the US Agency for International Development (USAID) and its staff has been prohibited from entering their offices. Millions of dollars in food and medical aid for developing nations were stopped in transit leading to the loss and spoilage of goods such as grain, which had been abandoned in shipment centers.

It’s important to note that apart from the devastating impact these cuts will have on the lives of the world’s poorest people, Musk’s actions done at the behest of Trump are both illegal and unconstitutional. Article 1, Section 9, of the US Constitution states that Congress has the power over the budget: “No Money shall be drawn from the Treasury, but in Consequence of Appropriations made by Law.” In addition, the Impoundment Control Act of 1974 requires a process through which presidents need to request permission from both houses of Congress to seize appropriations. 

However, apart from their heartlessness and potential criminality, these actions by Musk and Trump by terminating the work being done by USAID raise serious questions about the $500 million dollar appropriation for the Philippines.

What military aid cuts may mean for the Philippines

At this point it’s not certain whether the aid, which was earmarked for the Philippines, will be spent in the manner that Congress had intended. However, following the statements by Vice President JD Vance at the Munich Security Conference in February 2025, where he called the 80-year-old Western Alliance into question, further questions will no doubt be asked as to whether the United States can be regarded as a reliable ally. Rather than making the argument that threats to Europe and the Alliance came from Russia or China, Vance lectured his audience of the “threat from within.”

Both developments bode ill for not only the political future of Philippine president Ferdinand Marcos Jr., but also for the emerging alliance of the United States, Japan, the Philippines and Australia which was forged under the Biden administration. If the funding cuts that are being carried out by Musk impact the Philippines, then it is far more likely that Marcos will be under increasing pressure from China (PRC) which has stepped up its coercive tactics in Philippine maritime territory.

China’s pressure on the Philippines and its waters

Since taking office in 2022, Marcos has engaged in what has been described as a policy of “assertive transparency,” which is to insist on upholding the claims to Philippines maritime territory while at the same time publicizing the thuggish tactics that the PRC military has been using in order to deny both Philippine Coast Guard vessels and local fishermen the peaceful use of the reefs and shoals within the Philippines Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).

“P20230501AS-1112” by Biden White House Archived is United States government work”

Given the history of the PRC of refusing to abide by the UN Law of the Sea Convention (UNCLOS) and its practice of what amounts to not only of coercive actions, but of “gray zone warfare” the Philippines has been forced to consider bringing a fresh action to an international legal forum. In this proposed filing, the Philippine government is seeking support from others of the 170 signatories to UNCLOS. Such legal action could include claims based on destroyed/damaged marine resources. Previously, the Philippines government has lodged complaints alleging widespread destruction of coral reefs in its EEZ and has called for an international inquiry into environmental damage including the PRC’s plunder of rare giant clams which have been carefully documented including surveillance photographs of Chinese fishermen harvesting giant clams inside Scarborough Shoal. These reports show that as of 2025, the coral reefs appeared badly scarred by the uncontrolled and illegal plunder of giant clams and other endangered marine life.

However, after Vance’s speech at the Munich Security Conference, any support for the proposed legal action is being called into question. There is no evidence that the Trump administration is interested in bringing cases before international tribunals. Recently, the Trump administration has placed sanctions on the International Criminal Court (ICC) over its investigation into alleged crimes by Israel during the Gaza War.

Given such a loss of support from its treaty ally (dating from August 1951) the alliance itself will be called into question, and the Philippines might be forced to confront the PRC on its own. In such a case, it’s not unlikely that Marcos would be forced into a “deal” on China’s terms. In turn, this will greatly weaken Marcos’ position domestically. Further complicating the situation for the future of the emerging alliance, are questions pertaining to the Philippines domestic politics.

The Philippines’ domestic politics and the future of alliances

All these developments have been occurring amid a series of bitter exchanges between President Marcos and his Vice President, Sara Duterte. In 2024, the Philippine House of Representatives convened a series of investigative hearings. The House Committee was established to investigate crimes related to the former President Duterte’s “war on drugs” and the approximately 30,000 victims of extrajudicial killings which took place during that time as well as issues related to national security and the Duterte administration’s corrupt involvement with Chinese offshore gaming organizations (also known as POGOs).

These congressional investigations have been held during a time of heightened animosity between the rival camps, following Rodrigo Duterte’s accusations of Marcos’ cocaine addiction and Sara Duterte’s rant in which she publicly threatened that if harm came to her, she would have Marcos, killed, along with the First Lady and the Speaker of the House of Representatives. One question is the degree to which Sara Duterte’s words and actions will serve to disqualify her as a future President.

This ongoing feud between the Marcos and Duterte camps is relevant because the 2025 election campaign is already underway and there is speculation as to who will be nominated to run in the presidential race in 2028. As the Philippine Constitution only allows for the president to serve for one term of six years, Marcos’ alliance will need to name a successor. There seems little doubt that Sara Duterte will be in that race. It is evident through past statements that Duterte takes the same pro-China position as her father. A future Duterte administration would likely throw the emerging alliance with the US , Japan, and Australia into doubt. Much depends on who is elected the next President of the Philippines both within the country and in the region. The incoming Trump administration only serves to further complicate both the future of the US alliance and their response to the challenges posed by an increasingly belligerent PRC.

The US as an unreliable ally

Already, China’s president, Xi Jinping, will have been emboldened by Trump’s statements and his February call with Russian President, Vladimir Putin regarding Russia and Ukraine. That unilateral action essentially legitimized aggression of one state against another. Based on Trump’s actions in Ukraine, Xi will likely calculate that the US would be unwilling to come to the defense of Taiwan in the case of a blockade or armed attack.

The display at the Munich Conference by Trump and US Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, in terms of issuing unilateral statements without consultation with NATO allies is a possible indicator for what’s going to happen in the Asia-Pacific region. Trump’s previous term of office, and now his second term, show that Trump doesn’t believe in alliances. In Munich, Vance revealed that he doesn’t see the value of the western alliance at all. And more than that, Hegseth revealed that the Trump administration doesn’t believe in values. At the end of the day, Trump’s policies and reckless statements reveal America to be an unreliable ally.

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• Note: This article gives the views of the author, and not the position of USAPP – American Politics and Policy, nor the London School of Economics.