President Donald Trump unleashed a flurry of new, reciprocal tariffs at the end of last week, disrupting global trade norms and wreaking havoc on both US and global markets. In this Q&A, Thomas Gift analyzes the politics behind the new tariffs, whether they can be expected to last, and whether Congress might have any success curbing Trump’s authority on trade policy. 

What did you make of Trump’s latest round of tariffs?

Trump is taking a torch to what’s been an almost completely uninterrupted 80-year streak of US pro-globalization policy – a consensus that’s held since the retreat from the Smoot Hawley tariffs in the 1930s. In that period, the US economy grew to a value of roughly $30 trillion and became the world’s economic superpower. Yet in more recent years, deindustrialization and the hollowing out the middle class have become pervasive. The one thing that’s hard to understand is why both Democrats and Republicans (not to mention Wall Street) seem so surprised by Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs. Say what you want about Trump’s tariffs: that they’re inflationary, that they isolate America from its allies, that they’re triggering a global trade war. These are all true. But it’s hard to say that Trump didn’t warn us. The now-president was extremely explicit during the 2024 election campaign about his intent to impose tariffs, and this is him delivering on that pledge.

What are Democrats saying about Trump’s tariffs?

For the moment, many Democrats seem content to sit back and watch Trump be blamed for a cratering stock market. There’s some unease about coming out too hard in favor of globalization because Democrats know that many voters within their own party aren’t total free traders. At the same time, some Democrats are sensing a broader momentum shift in public opinion, spurred on by the backlash to the tariffs. Over the weekend, Democrats held more than 1,400 “hands off” protests against Donald Trump and Elon Musk. The phrase refers to Democrats demanding that Republicans not touch vital social services that Americans rely on like Medicaid and Social Security. For the first time in a while, Democrats look energized. Still, we shouldn’t overstate the extent of any vibe shift. Congressional Democrats have just a 21 percent approval rating, according to new polling from CNN.

“Liberation Day, President Trump at the Make America Wealthy Again Event – April 2, 2025” by The White House is United States government work.

How are other Republicans reacting to the tariffs?

We are seeing growing consternation among Senate Republicans. Texas Senator Ted Cruz said that the US could spiral toward a “terrible” fate if the tariffs weren’t reversed. His colleague, Iowa Senator Chuck Grassley, has co-sponsored a bill that would reassert congressional authority over tariff policy. In essence, new tariffs would sunset after 60 days without House and Senate approval. That bill has been endorsed by Republican Senators Mitch McConell, Lisa Murkowski, Jerry Moran, and Thom Tillis. Additionally, another bill was passed in the Senate last week, including with four Republicans, which would terminate new tariffs on Canada. But these bills are just going to get shelved in the Republican-controlled House. It’ll be very hard for anyone to stop Trump’s tariffs except Trump himself. Presidents enjoy wide latitude to direct trade policy, especially since the Trade Act of 1974, which expanded executive powers to rectify trade imbalances.

Is there any chance Trump reverses course?

Trump views tariffs as a negotiating ploy. So, in the best-case scenario, most of Trump’s tariffs will be peeled back in a few months if Trump can extract trade policy concessions. But if we get further escalation, a large-scale, global trade war is certainly plausible. I think the reason that didn’t happen in the Trump 1.0 administration is that there were enough voices around him — like former Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin — who could rein Trump in on tariffs. Current Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent could be playing that role behind the scenes. But in public, he’s giving a full-throated defense of the tariffs, as is Secretary of State Marco Rubio. And White House senior counselor Peter Navarro is egging Trump on with tariffs. The fact that Trump has surrounded himself by so many “yes men” means that he’s unlikely to hear much internal dissent even as the cost of these tariffs becomes clear.

What could be the political implications of Trump’s tariffs if they don’t work as planned?

Ted Cruz has declared that Republicans could be staring down a “bloodbath” — his words — in next year’s midterm elections if these tariffs jolt the US into a full-blown recession. Washington could face a Democratic House, and maybe even a Democratic Senate, after 2026. If that happens, Trump would be a lame duck. What’s striking is that the wounds would be entirely self-inflicted. This is the kind of concern that could finally provoke House Republicans to push back on Trump. Because one thing is clear: in bad economic times, voters punish incumbents. Already, numbers are emerging that should worry the White House. A CBS poll last week found that more than half of Americans — 56 percent — don’t favor more tariffs. An earlier Washington Post-Ipsos poll reported that 70 percent of Americans think tariffs drive up prices. And these polls were taken before markets took a complete nosedive at the end of last week.

• This interview is based on comments Thomas Gift made on CNN’s “Newsroom” on 6 April 2025.
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• Note: This article gives the views of the author, and not the position of USAPP – American Politics and Policy, nor the London School of Economics.