Donald Trump is still chasing a major legislative win with his so-called “Big Beautiful Bill.” Yet while he’s pledged to ensure it’s passed by July 4th, hurdles remain. In this Q&A, Thomas Gift explains opposition to the bill, including from Republicans on Capitol Hill, and what may happen if Congress can’t finalize the proposal by Trump’s deadline.
What is Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” and what does the American public think of it?
First announced in January, Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill would see cuts to Medicaid and SNAP, while increasing funding for border security and defense spending. It would also reduce or eliminate tax on Social Security, overtime and tips. Trump has called the bill “the largest tax cut in the history of this country”. The bill was narrowly passed by the US House earlier this month and now awaits the approval of the Senate.
While Republicans on Capitol Hill want to give Trump a legislative victory with the bill, the reality is that they’re facing stark public opposition. Recent polls by Pew, Quinnipiac, and the Washington Post all indicate that less than 30 percent of the electorate backs the bill as it currently stands. So, this combination of tax cuts and reductions to social safety net programs either hasn’t been sold well by Trump and the GOP, or voters simply don’t like the current mix of policy. The one area where Democratic messaging has been effective is criticizing the bill as involving draconian cuts to Medicaid and food assistance, which affects thousands of low-income voters, many of whom are Trump supporters.
“P20250520MR-0395” by The White House is United States government work
Why can’t Trump pass the bill easily with Republican majorities in both the Senate and the House?
The Big Beautiful Bill is creating, or more accurately, exposing, an identity crisis within the Republican Party. Fiscal hawks think that the bill’s spending cuts don’t go far enough. For example, Senator Rand Paul (KY) said there’d be “blowback” if the legislation doesn’t cut the deficit by more. Republicans risk looking hypocritical after exerting so much effort during the Biden administration pushing for spending restraint. However, more moderate Senators are staring down the real consequences of entitlement rollbacks. An analysis by the Congressional Budget Office last month showed that the poorest households would lose roughly $1,600 per year, due to reductions in food supplements and Medicaid. That’s consequential.
What are the main obstacles to passage?
There are two primary hurdles right now. One is the political battle over Medicare. The Big Beautiful bill includes a directive that states reduce the taxes they impose on Medicaid providers from six to three percent. Opponents of the bill say this will negatively impact the funding of rural hospitals, which are highly dependent on that funding. A complex formula calculates the amount of federal funding allocated through the joint program operated alongside the states. Besides political roadblocks, the Big Beautiful Bill also faces technical hurdles. Republicans right now are waiting to see if specific tax provisions of the bill can be included and still pass through a simple majority in the reconciliation process.
Will Trump get his bill through?
Trump is going to have to be the closer for the Republicans. That means applying pressure to leadership and rank-and-file members of the Senate. The basic message is: vote for the bill, or we’re going to primary you into oblivion. We saw the power of MAGA to force Congress members into compliance with Trump’s cabinet picks. Without it, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Attorney General Kash Patel, and others likely wouldn’t be in the positions they’re in. Trump isn’t in his honeymoon period, and he doesn’t have endless political capital. But there’s still no one who rivals Trump’s power with the GOP base. So, we can expect him to use every last ounce of energy he has to make sure the Big Beautiful Bill passes.
Where will Trump stand if he doesn’t get the bill over the finish line?
Trump won’t be a complete lame duck if he doesn’t pass the Big Beautiful Bill. But he certainly will look weak ahead of the 2026 midterms. Typically, presidents have one shot at passing a marquee piece of legislation. Think No Child Left Behind with George W. Bush, the Affordable Care Act with Barack Obama, the 2017 tax cuts in Trump’s first go-round, and the American Rescue Plan with Joe Biden. So far, virtually everything substantial Trump has done – and he’s done quite a lot – has been through executive actions. But what can be done with a stroke of his pen can just as easily be undone by the next Democratic president. Without a major legislative win, Trump will leave behind a legacy that lacks permanence.
- This interview is based on comments Thomas Gift made on CNN’s Early Start with Rahel Solomon” on 27 June 2025.
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- Note: This article gives the views of the author, and not the position of USAPP – American Politics and Policy, nor the London School of Economics.
