Geert Wilders’ victory in the 2023 Dutch general election might suggest Euroscepticism is on the rise in the Netherlands. Yet as Nick Martin and Andre Krouwel write, the European ideal still retains strong support among Dutch voters.

This article is part of a series on the 2024 European Parliament elections. The EUROPP blog will also be co-hosting a panel discussion on the elections at LSE on 6 June.

On the eve of the 2024 European Parliament elections, the appeal of the European project to Dutch voters remains strong. Even the radical right, the victors of last year’s general election, realise this and are toning down their anti-European rhetoric.

Under the slogan “More Netherlands. Less EU!” the populist radical right PVV recently launched their candidate list for June’s election to the European Parliament. Victorious in last year’s general election and riding high in Dutch opinion polls, the progress of the PVV might suggest that anti-EU sentiment in the Netherlands has all the political momentum. However, a new large-scale survey of Dutch voters shows clearly that, on the contrary, the principal drivers of the European project retain the support of a large majority of Dutch citizens.

Using a large questionnaire with 65 questions spanning the most salient policy issues in relation to European integration, we asked respondents to indicate their agreement on a five-point Likert scale (1 = fully disagree, 5 = fully agree, with a “no opinion” option). The answers revealed seven coherent issue-dimensions underlying the opinions of Dutch voters on European politics.

The dimensions include a larger versus smaller role for the EU in policy making dimension; a free movement dimension; a green, environmental dimension; a social policy dimension; an enlargement dimension (about more or less countries being allowed to join); a security dimension; and an immigration and asylum dimension. These seven dimensions can be used to place Dutch citizens into five sentiment groups. While two of these groups were hostile or opposed to key attributes of the European project, three sentiment groups were strongly positive.

European sentiment group 1: A free and social Europe is our future

The first positive sentiment group sees a strong and democratic Europe as key to solving the major problems of our times. Members of the group want the EU to be larger and include more countries. For them, the EU should develop more social policies and its multicultural nature is a strength.

This group strongly supports equal rights and the free movement of people across the EU-space. For them, the EU is well placed to battle the pollution, injustice and authoritarianism in the world. This set of sentiments has the most support among younger voters and the higher educated. It also has greater resonance with Dutch women than Dutch men. They tend to vote for GroenLinks-PvdA, D66, Partij voor Dieren or VOLT.

European sentiment group 2: A strong Europe guarantees our security

In a world of uncertainty and external threat from authoritarian leaders such as Vladimir Putin, the second positive sentiment group regards the EU as central to the future security of the Netherlands.

The EU should focus on building a strong defence to protect our prosperity and freedom, help Ukraine against the authoritarianism of Putin’s Russia and stop letting everyone enter the country. The promotion of free trade, cooperation with other democracies and increased investment in defence by the EU are all supported by this group of Dutch voters drawn extensively from centre-right parties and the right-wing populist JA21.

European sentiment group 3: European cooperation guarantees our prosperity

For the third positive sentiment group, the cooperation across borders that is fostered by the EU is essential to future prosperity. Only at the EU level, this group believes, can effective action be taken to promote trade, protect European customers and ensure that Europe does not become economically dependent on outside forces and states.

This group feels that one cannot solve the major problems in the world alone as a small country and that you need to work together in the EU-framework. This groups’ view of Europe enjoys widespread support from Dutch voters across the political spectrum from the centre-left to the centre-right (Green-Left, PvdA, NSC, D66, VVD and VOLT).

European Sentiment group 4: Europe needs more limits and stronger borders

The first of the two negative sentiment groups is the most clearly nativist in focus and close to the PVV’s election strapline. Members of this group want stronger borders, a reduction in migration and a strong focus on law-and-order measures. According to this group, the Dutch political class should put the Netherlands first and stop worrying about democratic backsliding in Europe and other parts of the world.

Interestingly, these voters also believe the EU should have social policies as well and help ordinary citizens, but that the EU should not force countries to treat all newcomers the same as natives. This set of sentiments has strong resonance among older Dutch voters and the supporters of the liberal VVD as well as both new and populist parties in the country like the PVV, BBB and NSC, as well as supporters of the left-radical Socialist Party.

European sentiment group 5: Europe undermines our national identity

Our second negative sentiment group is openly hostile to the European ideal, regarding it as a threat to the culture and identity of Dutch people. Members of this group are resolutely opposed to any further expansion of the European project and want a return of both power and resources from Brussels to the Netherlands, so that the burden placed on the Dutch people by EU tax and regulation can be lifted. This view of Europe is prominent among supporters of the less-liberal orientated right-wing parties such as Wilders’ PVV, Forum for Democracy, BBB, NSC and the orthodox Christian SGP.

Distribution of voters

Figure 1 illustrates where the average voter of the Dutch parties contesting the European elections sits on two key dimensions – vertically on a scale from pro-EU and progressive to anti-EU and conservative, and horizontally on the economic dimension from left to right. It shows a strong relationship between left-wing and pro-EU views in the top left-hand quadrant and to right-wing and anti-EU sentiment in the bottom right-hand quadrant.

Figure 1: Distribution of voters for Dutch Parties by EU sentiment and ideological position

Source: Compiled by the authors.

Clearly, the most pro-EU voters are for VOLT and D66, while centre-left PvdA-GreenLeft Alliance and centre-right VVD and CDA voters are also pro-EU on average. Notably, a new party, New Social Contract – a breakaway from the CDA – adopts a relatively similar position to its original Christian democratic home, albeit a bit less pro-EU. In the Netherlands, there is a left-wing voter group that is Eurosceptic and a populist right voter bloc with even more EU-rejecting attitudes. Note that supporters of the largest party – and the one driving the choice of new prime minister, the PVV – are the most anti-EU voter bloc of all.

The message for the Dutch political class and Europe

What implications do our findings have for the Dutch political class and for the country’s role in Europe in the near future? First, while there is significant evidence of anti-European and populist sentiment among the Dutch on the eve of the European elections, Dutch attitudes towards Europe are more complex than many think. Alongside the populists sit large and more influential groups of Dutch voters for whom the European ideal still holds a great attraction.

Second, although the media gives significant attention to populist narratives about the EU, the Dutch are not going to advocate for or seek a “Nexit” any time soon despite supporters of Geert Wilders’ PVV being the most anti-EU voter bloc in the country. Whatever the outcome is from the country’s protracted national coalition talks, the Dutch are likely to continue to be important and positive contributors to the EU in the next term of the Parliament.

Finally, for progressive and centre parties in the Netherlands seeking to recover ground from populists, there is much comfort to be found in our sentiment analysis. In the eye of the populist storm, political appeals to European cooperation, solidarity and democracy retain strong support from most Dutch voters.

Note: This article gives the views of the authors, not the position of EUROPP – European Politics and Policy or the London School of Economics. Featured image credit: jan kranendonk / Shutterstock.com