Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy are expected to significantly increase their share of seats in the 2024 European Parliament elections. Marina Cino Pagliarello writes Meloni could soon face a choice between leading the opposition in the European Parliament or embracing her pragmatic side in the hope of securing a greater voice over key decisions.
This article is part of a series on the 2024 European Parliament elections. The EUROPP blog will also be co-hosting a panel discussion on the elections at LSE on 6 June.
On 13-15 June, Italy will host the next G7 summit in the picturesque region of Apulia. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s role as chair will go beyond mere ceremony. The summit provides her with a strategic platform to consolidate her influence and articulate Italy’s vision for a stronger and more cohesive Europe.
It is also an opportune moment to evaluate Meloni’s two contrasting sides since her election victory in 2022. These are the identity side, in which she is consistent with her party’s historical roots and embodies the “fiery” face of the right; and her pragmatic side, especially in foreign affairs, where she envisions herself as the “respectable” face of the right.
The identity side
Over the years, Meloni has coherently defended the “identity” side of her party, with her party symbol, the flame, appealing to those who seek a strong nationalist identity. While rejecting the fascist label, Meloni’s policies and actions reflect a right-wing stance that has garnered criticism for its impact on issues such as social welfare, press freedom and constitutional reform.
Meloni’s ruling coalition has cut benefits for people on low incomes and the unemployed, enacted tough rules against NGO rescue ships and same-sex parents, and extended a ban on surrogacy to criminalise Italians who seek surrogacy arrangements abroad. While Meloni has expressed support for press freedom, critics point to hostile behaviour towards journalists from members of her party, the Brothers of Italy. Additionally, legal threats made by Meloni herself against dissenting voices have raised concerns about press freedom in Italy, especially during commemorations of the liberation from fascism on 25 April.
Recently, Meloni has faced criticism for proposing legislation that permits anti-abortion activists to enter abortion clinics. Her approach to issues such as immigration, social welfare, press freedom and her wider mission to “defend” Italy, has sparked intense debate and protest. Students have also actively protested against Meloni’s government. A few months ago, during peaceful demonstrations, some students were violently charged by the police in Pisa. These clashes raise concerns about the right to assembly and the use of force by authorities, drawing parallels with darker periods in Italy’s history.
The pragmatic side
At the same time, Meloni’s tenure has been marked by a more pragmatic side, positioning herself as a credible and influential leader. Her recent recognition by Time magazine as one of the most influential world leaders underscores her growing prominence on the global stage. This recognition came just months after Politico Europe placed her at the top of its “Doers” ranking of political leaders that “get things done” in Europe. Around the same time, Forbes crowned her as the fourth most influential woman in the world.
In her plan to run Europe, Meloni has emerged as a significant player on the European stage and as a leader that is adept at cultivating valuable friendships. Pressure from Meloni, alongside other right-wing leaders, prompted Brussels to revise its climate package and migration policies to manage migration outside the EU’s borders. Additionally, she has fostered a strong rapport with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who has made frequent visits to Italy, partly to strengthen her ties with Meloni ahead of her potential re-election.
Meloni is pro-NATO and has aligned with Joe Biden. She has successfully advocated for Ukraine’s cause against Russia and frequently expresses support for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. She has a good understanding with Rishi Sunak, with whom she collaborates on asylum policies, and her relationship with Emmanuel Macron has warmed after an earlier immigration dispute. However, as Aristotle (and Taylor Swift) remind us, a friend to all is a friend to no one. As Meloni’s global influence grows, the question arises: which side – identity or pragmatism – will ultimately shape her approach to EU affairs?
Meloni’s dilemma ahead of the European Parliament elections
The upcoming European Parliament elections are likely to result in an expanded right-wing bloc in the European Parliament, with Meloni’s Brothers of Italy expected to double its number of seats from 10 to 24. This will leave Meloni with the choice of either embracing her identity side and leading the opposition or turning to her pragmatic side with the aim of having a direct voice over crucial decisions.
On the one hand, leading the opposition bloc with conservative and nationalist forces would secure Meloni distinct political autonomy. Her recent announcement that she will run in the European elections as her party’s lead candidate underscored her commitment to defending national “excellence, borders and identity” within the EU.
Heading the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group, which includes parties such as Spain’s Vox, Poland’s Law and Justice, and France’s Reconquête, Meloni could exert substantial influence, advocating for policy measures like a rightward shift on migration and a reassessment of the EU’s contentious Green Deal. Additionally, Meloni has also been engaged in discussions with Viktor Orban, suggesting the potential for further strengthening the conservative bloc’s power in the upcoming European Parliament. However, should Meloni opt to leave the coalition, the group’s influence could decline significantly.
On the other hand, positioning herself as the “respectable face” of the right and forging alliances with moderate forces offers Meloni the promise of greater power and influence in the EU arena. Having abandoned anti-EU stances, Meloni has actively cultivated positive relationships with the EU, negotiating with its institutions to address challenges in implementing Italy’s National Recovery and Resilience Plan.
She has been courted by Ursula von der Leyen and European People’s Party (EPP) leader Manfred Weber, both engaging in strategic meetings with her to establish a right-wing alliance that could wield influence over crucial EU appointments. Von der Leyen’s efforts demonstrate willingness to go to great lengths to secure Meloni’s support. Should Meloni adopt this pragmatic approach, she could assert her influence by demanding a significant portfolio for the Italian European Commissioner, and be prepared to engage in negotiations with the Party of European Socialists (PES), who have already made clear their stance on negotiating with the ECR or the Identity and Democracy group.Inizio modulo
Rivals and constraints
Meloni’s future decisions will also be shaped by two key factors. First, while aligning with the EPP could boost Meloni’s EU influence, it would also expose her to risks from her biggest “frenemy”, the leader of Lega, Matteo Salvini. Despite being overshadowed by Meloni, Salvini’s presence remains a double-edged sword for her leadership. Lega’s positions on immigration, sovereignty and Euroscepticism still resonate with a significant portion of Meloni’s base.
Recently, Salvini has pushed for an expansive coalition with the Identity and Democracy group, which includes Lega alongside far-right parties like the Alternative for Germany and Marine Le Pen’s National Rally. If Meloni leans too far toward the EPP, Salvini could exploit this opportunity to regain prominence and position himself as the leader of a hardcore far-right coalition, attracting potential parliamentarians who might defect from Meloni’s coalition.
Second, Meloni is aware of the importance of adopting a Eurorealist approach and that she must operate within the boundaries of pro-EU norms, expectations and the legacy of the economic policies of her predecessors. Here, her decisions are subject to fiscal limitations and regulatory constraints. As Prime Minister, she must adhere to EU rules, also taking into account Italy’s poor performance in spending EU funds and Italy’s high debt-to-GDP ratio, which curtails her fiscal flexibility.
In the distinctive landscape of European elections, where alliances are forged and coalitions are formed before, during and after the elections, we will have to wait and see how Meloni will balance her autonomy, influence and EU constraints while managing potential rifts within her political coalition.
Note: This article gives the views of the author, not the position of EUROPP – European Politics and Policy or the London School of Economics. Featured image credit: European Union
