In Fluke, Brian Klaas explores the phenomenon of chance, examining how seemingly random happenings and actions can profoundly shape our lives. Klaas skilfully interweaves different perspectives – from physics, neuroscience and philosophy to real-life stories – to persuade readers that we live within a complex, interconnected system rather than a predictable one driven by cause and effect, writes Ulviyya Khalilova.
This blogpost originally appeared on LSE Review of Books. If you would like to contribute to the series, please contact the managing editor at lsereviewofbooks@lse.ac.uk. Brian Klaas also spoke about the book at a public LSE event earlier this year – watch it back on YouTube.
Fluke: Chance, Chaos, and Why Everything We Do Matters. Brian Klaas. John Murray. 2024.
“We control nothing, but influence everything”, writes Brian Klaas in his new book, Fluke: Chance, Chaos, and Why Everything We Do Matters (30). What distinguishes this book from others on the same or related subjects is its skilful integration of real-life experiences, paradigms, and insights gleaned from research across different disciplines. By seamlessly interweaving these narratives, the book fosters a deeper connection between the ideas and thoughts it presents, thereby rendering it more relatable and impactful for readers.
The author critiques individualism, asserting that every minute detail in the world, from atoms and cells to more intricate systems, is interconnected.
The book comprises 13 chapters which explore how different elements such as time, geography, environment, culture, society, and individuals influence the course of events in the world. Klaas starts with the discourse on contingency (contingent changes can stem from randomness) and convergence (convergent changes occur in respect to the relatively ordered and stable occurrences, producing same or similar outcomes), delving into the complexities of interconnectedness in the modern world. He critiques individualism, asserting that every minute detail in the world, from atoms and cells to more intricate systems, is interconnected. This interconnectedness reveals the potential causes affecting us and our surroundings, highlighting the importance of taking a relational view. While reality remains beyond human control, humans exert influence in numerous ways, leading to uncertainty and ambiguity regarding the future.
Klaas also examines the gap between human perception and actual reality, highlighting how our evolved brains selectively process information and seek causality, sometimes leading to teleological bias in complex environments.
Klaas also examines the gap between human perception and actual reality, highlighting how our evolved brains selectively process information and seek causality, sometimes leading to teleological bias in complex environments. Teleological bias results form a propensity to incorrectly assume the causal relationships between the unrelated events, such as children’s belief that mountains are made of people climbing them. Education is essential to overcome biases such as teleological ones. The author advocates that not everything occurs for a specific reason, and even the smallest random or arbitrary alterations in the course of events could result in numerous potential outcomes. Contingent changes can stem from randomness, potentially leading to significant alterations in the world. Even in the presence of order and structure, minor decisions and changes can still exert significant effects on individuals’ lives and societies. Klaas, however, does not view convergence as redundant.
Klaas introduces ‘self-organised criticality’ to elucidate the complex interconnectedness and diverse factors shaping reality, challenging the notion of singular causality.
He contrasts pre-modern and modern societies, noting how in the former, local instability coexisted with global stability, whereas the latter exhibit local stability alongside global instability due to intricate interrelations across fields. Despite our tendency to confirm cause-effect relations, effects can arise from multiple causes. Klaas introduces “self-organised criticality” to elucidate the complex interconnectedness and diverse factors shaping reality, challenging the notion of singular causality. While probabilities are often linked to cause-and-effect relationships to mitigate future uncertainty and anxiety, the complexities of the world render this approach insufficient. Klaas justifies this by noting that past events do not always provide reliable information about future possibilities.
Due to diverse personalities shaped by various factors such as environment, culture, and society the outcomes of events can vary. The book also emphasises that the individual matters, meaning actions and thoughts, are likely to yield diverse outcomes depending on who thinks and acts. What is equally important is how the recipient of information perceives and responds to it. As an individual, we, our body, and mind are constantly changing and evolving. In light of this, interpersonal dynamics can influence individual actions, leading to diverse outcomes. Hence, the individual and the specific moment hold significance, influencing and shaping the future.
Time, among the influential factors, plays a pivotal role in our lives and alters the outcomes of events. Klaas delineates the impact of time by using COVID-19 as an example. He contrasts productivity in the 1990s, where remote work was less feasible due to limited technology, with the present, where modern information and communication technology enables it. Similarly, had COVID-19 emerged in 1950, its spread might have been slower compared to today’s hyperconnected world. He underscores the significance of human mobility within these time scenarios. Time emerges as a crucial factor shaping actions, events, and outcomes.
According to determinists, everything happens as a result of past or initial conditions or forces of physics. A deterministic view asserts that nothing happens randomly and everything that happens stems from a cause-effect relationship. The indeterminist paradigm rejects the deterministic view of reality, and instead holds that small or tiny changes in the trajectory of things might engender various results. Opponents of determinist philosophy, or indeterminists, argue that some events lack deterministic causes and occur randomly, arguing that the future is unpredictable. Klaas discusses the concept of free will within this context, which contradicts the laws of physics, alongside the compatibility thesis, suggesting that free will and determinism can coexist. According to this thesis, human actions are formed by both first and second-order desires.
First-order desires entail wanting something or acting in a particular way, while second-order desires are not based on desiring something or acting in a particular way. Second-order desires result from human interactions with others, their surroundings, or their social and cultural environment, shaping perceptions and influencing decisions. Klaas, challenging the concept of free will, reiterates his argument from previous chapters that outcomes are not solely determined by our behaviour and actions, but are open to other influences.
The book highlights the world’s inherent disorder and uncertainty, which makes it fascinating. This uncertainty fuels our excitement for exploration.
We are often so immersed in virtual reality that we overlook the real world, limiting our exploration. The book highlights the world’s inherent disorder and uncertainty, which makes it fascinating. This uncertainty fuels our excitement for exploration. The world is inherently complex and chaotic, and not everything operates according to precise calculations. Every small step or decision we take has significance and helps to shape our lives. Uncertainty sparks curiosity, prompting us to explore the world and contemplate numerous potential outcomes.
Technical rationality often directs us towards exploitation rather than exploration. However, exploration is the foundation of creativity, allowing things to unfold naturally and revealing the world’s complexity. Seeking to control everything restricts our ability to perceive alternative realities. Klaas highlights the importance of prioritising exploration over exploitation. He notes our tendency to oversimplify the world into a predictable system driven by cause and effect. Yet, it is the world’s immense complexity and inherent unpredictability that keep us enthralled.
In our fast-paced world, it is easy to miss what truly unfolds around us. This book is invaluable for a wide audience, offering insights into how the world operates and prompting reflection on our own personal experiences. It encourages readers to recognise moments of flukes, chance encounters or unexpected events that can profoundly shape our lives.
Acknowledgement: I would like to express my gratitude to Anna D’Alton, Managing Editor, LSE Review of Books for editing the draft of this book review and providing invaluable feedback for improving its readability.
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