The American South has seen changing political allegiances from Democratic dominance to mixed support and now effective Republican rule. In new research, Christopher A. Cooper, Scott H. Huffmon, Gibbs Knotts and Seth C. McKee, take a close look at the state of southern politics. They find that the past two decades have seen increases in the Black and general minority population across much of the region, increased inward migration from other parts of the US, and declining support for Republicans in urban areas – all trends that favor the Democratic Party. While the Democratic Party is unlikely to win the South overall, they write, we may be seeing the beginnings of a return to more competitive elections there.

The transformation of the American South from one-party Democratic domination after Reconstruction in the 1860s and 1870s to the mid-twentieth century, to the two-party South of the 1980s and 1990s, and then on to the one-party Republican rule of the early 2000s is perhaps the most important story in American politics over the last hundred years.

The 2020 election provided evidence that southern politics may be shifting in important ways yet again. After all, Virginia supported the Democratic candidate for President, as it has every year since 2008, and Georgia gave its Electoral College votes to Joe Biden—the first time in 28 years that a Democratic candidate for President has carried the Peach State. In addition, the three states where Trump’s victory margin was the smallest—North Carolina, Florida, and Texas—were all south of the Mason-Dixon line (the figurative line that separates north and south).

What is the state of southern politics as we approach the 2024 election? Will the Democrats continue to make inroads in the American South, or was their modest success in 2020 a small blip? In new research, we address these questions using a combination of state, county, and individual level data. Our work helps to inform our understanding of modern southern politics on the eve of the 2024 elections.

A growing, diversifying region

First, we document the continued population growth of the South, highlighting that the region’s size and political power suggests that neither the Democrats, nor the Republicans should attempt to “Whistle Past Dixie.” In 2020, almost one in every three Americans lived in the eleven states of the Old Confederacy (32.6 percent)—up from about one in four in 1970 (24.6 percent). That population growth corresponds to rising political power as registered in congressional seats and Electoral College votes.

While the South has been growing, and thus should not be ignored, it is the specifics of that growth that are contributing to partisan change in the region. Compared to 2000, whites make up a smaller percentage of the population of every southern state. Further, while only 50 percent of southern counties have experienced growth in the white population in the last decade, 87 percent have experienced increases in their Black and overall minority population.

We explored the partisan implications of this change by using data from a 2022 survey of the southern electorate conducted by Winthrop University’s Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research. We discovered that the Black and global majority population is much more likely to identify with the Democratic Party than their white counterparts. This effect is not limited to the Black/white racial dichotomy that has often defined the southern politics literature, but rather extends to Hispanics who are much less likely to identify as Republicans than are non-Latino whites. The “browning of the new South,” therefore, is likely to benefit the Democratic Party.

“Mason Dixon Line Marker” (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0) by jimmywayne

The second component of southern population growth is people from outside the region migrating to the South. Scholars, mostly notably Irwin Morris, have found that these “movers” are more likely to adopt liberal and Democratic political stances, while people who remain rooted in their communities their whole lives (“stayers” in Morris’ formulation) are more likely to identify as conservative and Republican.

Our research supports this idea. Our analysis of the Winthrop Poll data reveals that people who have lived more time in their community are more likely to identify as Republicans, while newer residents are more likely to identify as Democrats. As the region is made up of more and more movers, it is likely to become more friendly to the Democratic Party.

The final component of southern partisan change we examine relates to where individuals live. People in communities with more population growth are much less likely to identify with the Republican Party than people who live in locations with modest, or negative population growth. This comports with both Morris’ movers and stayers theory, as well as Charles Bullock and his colleagues’ observation that “growth states” (Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas, and Virginia) are creeping towards bipartisanship, while “stagnant states” (Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee) remain firmly in the grip of Republican politics. Our findings also help explain the increasing geographic polarization in the South where urban areas are becoming more and more Democratic, while rural areas are increasingly Republican. 

Looking forward to 2024

Our research illustrates that the American South is growing at a much higher rate versus the rest of the United States, and the nature of this growth suggests that Democratic candidates will perform better than they have in the recent past. In fact, we may be creeping back towards a two-party South, at least in those southern states experiencing the greatest rise in population growth.

Our results do not imply, however, that the Democrats are poised to win the South anytime soon. Demographic change is not political destiny, and the fact that the change is concentrated in fewer than half of the southern states suggests no reason to anticipate another Solid Democratic South. Furthermore, in states like Florida and Texas, despite their highest population increases in the region, Republican electoral success persists. A primary reason for this is because of massive turnout gaps between minority and white populations.

Also, strategic gerrymandering combined with widespread lack of knowledge of state legislative candidates could also limit Democratic gains. In short, even if statewide elections are increasingly competitive, Democrats may find congressional and state legislative pickups elusive.

The newest southern politics is home to an increasing number of voices, and those voices are from a greater variety of backgrounds and perspectives than ever before. Taken all together, politically speaking, this historic demographic diversity benefits the Democratic Party. In terms of short-term presidential politics, Virginia is almost certain to fall into Democratic hands again for the fifth straight time, and Georgia and North Carolina are once again battlegrounds in 2024. Florida, Texas, and South Carolina (the other growth states) are unlikely to flip, but all three will likely become slightly less Republican over the next several presidential elections. In contrast, by dint of relatively little demographic change in the stagnant South states of Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee, we should expect them to remain Republican strongholds for the foreseeable future.

Hence, while one-party Democratic domination is unlikely to ever return to Dixie, Democrats have a realistic chance of moving towards a competitive two-party South in most of the region.

• This article is based on the paper, ‘Population change, racial settlement patterns, and the newest southern electorate’ in Politics, Groups, and Identities
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• Note: This article gives the views of the author, and not the position of USAPP – American Politics and Policy, nor the London School of Economics. 
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