Several states across the US held primaries on Tuesday, but perhaps none was more closely watched — or garnered more media attention — than the elections held in Pennsylvania. In this Q&A, Thomas Gift, a native of the Keystone State, explains why Pennsylvania is a bellwether for national politics and why all eyes should be on it to understand […]
President Joe Biden’s approval ratings have now been in decline for nearly a year, making him the least popular president at this time in his presidency in 70 years, save for Donald Trump. Yulia Pechenkina and Helmut Norpoth argue that Biden’s falling ratings can be linked to progressive disenchantment with his failures so far to deliver on many of […]
The economy and the elderly helped Trump lose in 2020, and it would be a mistake for the GOP if he ran again
In the years since Donald Trump’s presidential election victory, much has been written about how populists gain power. But what can Trump’s 2020 presidential election loss tell us about how populists stay in or lose power? Using a survey of 1,200 Americans, Anja Neundorf and Sergi Pardos-Prado find that despite being a populist, Trump was assessed and held […]
Bellwether counties are mostly a matter of chance and are now poor predictors of presidential election results.
Those who believe that Donald Trump won the 2020 presidential election have held up his victories in many bellwether counties as evidence of electoral fraud. In new research, Bernard Grofman and Haotian Chen argue that the evidence shows that this claim is laughable. They write that the electoral record shows that not only are bellwether counties poor predictors of […]
In recent decades the US Congress has become increasingly polarized, with legislators taking increasingly more extreme ideological positions on various issues. But does this polarization reflect the US as a whole? Using data from the American National Election Study Helmut Norpoth and Michael S. Lewis-Beck find that the American electorate is far from polarized, with a plurality identifying with the […]
The 2022 Midterms: Ahead of North Carolina’s primary, district lines and candidates are set, but the outcome will be anyone’s guess.
Ahead of primary elections in the state on May 17th, Christopher A. Cooper gives an update on how North Carolina’s electoral contests are shaping up. He writes that while the state’s Congressional districts and candidates are now essentially locked in, a crowded field of contenders heading into the primaries makes it difficult to make predictions about where things stand […]
Nevada is one of the most crucial states in the 2022 midterm elections, with control of the US Senate potentially in the balance depending on the election outcome there. Eldrid Herrington takes a close look at how the primary races are shaping up for both parties in the Silver State, and at how redistricting may affect the state’s US […]
This year’s mid-term elections have been further complicated as many states look to redistrict their congressional electoral boundaries. Christopher Cooper reports on the latest from North Carolina, where the State Supreme Court has recently ruled that the district maps drawn by the state’s Republican-led legislature are unconstitutional gerrymanders. He writes that not only are North Carolina’s election boundaries in […]
For many, term limits are a way of checking the power of government executives. In new research, Alexandra G. Cockerham challenges these assumptions. Analyzing bargaining between the legislature and executive across states with and without gubernatorial term limits, she finds that such limits mean that governors are more likely to take unilateral action. By contrast, executives who are not […]