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Alejandro Esteso Pérez

May 5th, 2023

What next for Montenegro following the 2023 presidential election?

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Estimated reading time: 5 minutes

Alejandro Esteso Pérez

May 5th, 2023

What next for Montenegro following the 2023 presidential election?

0 comments | 5 shares

Estimated reading time: 5 minutes

On 2 April, Jakov Milatović defeated Milo Đukanović in the second round of Montenegro’s presidential election. As Alejandro Esteso Pérez writes, the vote marked the end of an era for Montenegrin politics, with Đukanović having held power as prime minister or president almost continuously for over three decades.

Jakov Milatović will be the next president of Montenegro following a comfortable win in the second round of the country’s presidential election on 2 April. Amid a record turnout, Milatović earned a safe victory with 59 percent of votes against long-standing statesman Milo Đukanović, who garnered 41 percent.

Milatović’s candidacy and subsequent win were endorsed by several other presidential contenders that did not make it through the first voting round in mid-March. Candidates from across the spectrum expressed their public support for Milatović, helping him muster a victory in the second round. Only a few days later, Đukanović, who had been on the frontline of Montenegrin politics for over thirty years as either prime minister or president, announced he would be stepping down from all his current positions, including within his party, the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS).

A new political era is now in store for Montenegro following Milatović’s win. The challenges ahead are sizeable, and they are clearly not just limited to the country’s regional and international positioning. The soon-to-be-inaugurated new president is stepping in at a moment of complex domestic dynamics, where he will be expected to mend a polarised society while attempting to preserve the cross-party legitimacy that brought him to power. With Đukanović out of the picture, this seems no easy feat.

A winning ticket

Milatović’s political career started formally in late 2020, when he entered office as Minister of Economic Development in the short-lived technical cabinet of Zdravko Krivokapić that lasted until April 2022. Shortly after Krivokapić’s government lost power, Milatović founded Evropa Sad (Europe Now), a new platform advocating for social cohesion, active citizen participation and EU membership. He was joined in this venture by Milojko Spajić, likewise a former minister in the Krivokapić executive, as co-leader of the initiative.

Evropa Sad campaigned heavily on an anti-corruption and economy-oriented agenda, including a pledge to raise the average salary from 700 to 1,000 euros. This was relatively groundbreaking as the political narrative in Montenegro – especially during elections – had traditionally relied on highly polarising rhetoric and references to stark ethnic-national divides between the country’s Montenegrin and Serb populations.

Milatović’s candidacy for president came only after co-leader Spajić, who was originally set to run on Evropa Sad’s ticket, was forced to step down following a decision from the Montenegrin Central Election Commission. In fact, Milatović was Evropa Sad’s leading candidate for mayor of Podgorica at the local elections, which had been held only a few months prior. He had to renounce this position to jump into the presidential race.

Evropa Sad’s civic-oriented and economy-first agenda combined with cross-party anti-Đukanović sentiment to bring Milatović to power. This leaves Montenegro in an unprecedented situation, with Đukanović, the strongman and main protagonist on the domestic political scene for the past three decades, no longer in the picture – at least for now.

The end of an era?

Đukanović’s overwhelming defeat has set Montenegrin political life on a new course. Support for the DPS had been faltering in recent years, a revealing moment being the country’s local elections held in 2022, where Đukanović’s party suffered losses in several key municipalities. This fall deepened again at the presidential election, where the party’s local support network, nurtured for decades, was unable to counter the impetus of a cross-party coalition supportive of Milatović.

Following Đukanović’s resignation, the DPS immediately appointed Danijel Živković, a current member of parliament, as its acting president, and the party is now rapidly attempting to reposition itself, not least because snap parliamentary elections are set to be held on 11 June. It is evident that the DPS has lost a major share of its previous support and, as things currently stand, finds itself in a weakened position. The fall of Đukanović, furthermore, seems to have revealed the party’s lack of a prominent figure capable of leading its overhaul in time for the next campaign.

Big dreams in a small land

Jakov Milatović will be inaugurated in mid-May as Montenegro’s new president. He will face the arduous task of closing the ethnic-national gap that Đukanović perpetuated and, in line with Evropa Sad’s civic-oriented platform, becoming a president for all of the country’s citizens. He will also have responsibility for leading the country to a new life after Đukanović, which will be no easy task.

For Milatović to succeed, broad cross-party buy-in will be necessary to endow the new president with transversal legitimacy and mend the deep state of polarisation the country finds itself in. Support from all parties across the country’s political spectrum – besides, predictably, the DPS and its allies – will be required. There is substantive risk that this might not be achieved, and that the multi-party alliance that helped defeat Đukanović at the polls will vanish, ushering Montenegrin party politics back to business as usual.

Milatović’s unexpected rise to power represents a challenge in itself. Instead of becoming the new mayor of Podgorica, Milatović must now exercise the responsibilities of a head of state. A considerable leap, to say the least, and one which will require a different set of skills given the presidency’s curtailed constitutional mandate and lack of executive functions. It will be crucial for Milatović to set a new precedent by refusing to overstep his mandate and leading by example, in contrast to the approach of his predecessor.

While consistency with Montenegro’s high EU ambitions is expected, the new president’s approach vis-à-vis neighbouring Serbia is likely to represent a shift from Đukanović’s sovereigntist, pro-Montenegrin stance and traditional antagonism towards Belgrade. Milatović’s apparently lukewarm position on the role and influence of the Serbian Orthodox Church in the country, and even on the question of Kosovo’s statehood, has already raised some eyebrows. The votes of Montenegro’s Serb community went primarily to Milatović and it was thanks to this support that his presidential victory was secured.

More broadly, the organisational resources of Evropa Sad – not only as a new platform but also as a new power-holding structure – will also be put to the test following Milatović’s victory, especially after the June parliamentary elections, where the party is expected to be rewarded highly. It is likely that Evropa Sad will have to engage in a potentially treacherous balancing act between, on the one hand, living up to political expectations and doing away with the Đukanović era, and on the other hand, effectively delivering on the economic promises the party consistently campaigned on. Most of this, however, will remain uncertain until the results of the parliamentary election and the stability of the next government become clear.

Montenegro has busy months ahead. Alongside Milatović’s inauguration and his first weeks in office, the campaign for the snap parliamentary election is bound to rock Montenegrin politics. For its part, there are major questions over the DPS’s electoral fate and it is unlikely the party will be able to step out from the shadow of Đukanović and pull itself together in such a short space of time.

Other parties, including the acting government’s main coalition partners, also look set to face a challenging campaign, while the Belgrade-backed Democratic Front (DF) stands strong in the country’s Serb-majority areas. Against this backdrop, we might soon find out whether Montenegro is moving on for good or not.


Note: This article gives the views of the author, not the position of EUROPP – European Politics and Policy or the London School of Economics. Featured image credit: European Union


About the author

Alejandro Esteso Pérez

Alejandro Esteso Pérez

Alejandro Esteso Pérez is a Political Scientist and Researcher specialising in EU enlargement and Western Balkan politics. He is a KRAF fellow at the Kosovo Foundation for Open Society (KFOS).

Posted In: Elections | Politics

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