The European Parliament election in Cyprus will be held on the same day as local elections. As Yiannos Katsourides explains, the outcomes of both elections could have several important implications for Cypriot politics.

This article is part of a series on the 2024 European Parliament elections. The EUROPP blog will also be co-hosting a panel discussion on the elections at LSE on 6 June.

The political landscape in Cyprus has been steadily evolving over recent years, marked by a gradual but consistent shift. This transformation is evident in the weakening connections between political parties and the public, dwindling trust in political institutions, voter disengagement, declining party affiliations and the increasing individualisation of voter behaviour. If one were to characterise the trajectory of politics in Cyprus, “fluidity” emerges as the most apt descriptor.

It is against this backdrop that the upcoming European elections will unfold. Adding to this fluidity and making things more complex is the fact that the European elections are being held on the same day as local elections, for the first time in Cyprus’s electoral history.

While this is intended to boost voter participation, given the sheer number of offices (approximately 3,500) and candidates involved in the local elections, this outcome is far from guaranteed. Both local and European elections are often viewed as second-order contests, characterised by low interest and voter turnout. Historically, European elections in Cyprus have had low turnout rates, with abstention outweighing voter turnout in the past two cycles. In the 2019 elections, for instance, 55% of eligible voters abstained.

Furthermore, the distinct dynamics inherent in the two elections introduce significant uncertainty regarding the outcome, turnout and potential cross-impact between the two. European elections are inherently partisan, whereas local elections tend to be more personalised.

The numbers, the parties and the campaign

The 2024 European Parliament elections hold particular significance as they mark the twentieth anniversary of Cyprus’ accession to the EU and the fifth occasion for Cypriots from both communities to cast their votes for the European Parliament. A total of 63 candidates representing 12 different parties and platforms, including two independents, are vying for the six seats allotted to Cyprus. Notably, three Turkish Cypriots are running under the banners of AKEL, the Greens, and the newly established Volt party, respectively. The electorate comprises 706,534 voters, including 103,269 Turkish Cypriots and 13,017 other European citizens.

The key parties competing in the elections include the right-wing Democratic Rally (DISY), which secured 29.02% in the previous European elections, the left-wing Progressive Party of the Working People (AKEL) (27.49%), the centre-right Democratic Party (DIKO) (13.8%) and Democratic Front (DIPA) (3.8%), the social democratic United Democratic Union of the Centre (EDEK) (10.58%), the far-right National Popular Front (ELAM) (8.25%) and the Greens, who contested the previous elections jointly with EDEK. Currently, DISY and AKEL each have two Members of the European Parliament (one of AKEL’s being a Turkish Cypriot), while DIKO and EDEK have one each.

However, this balance is under threat mainly due to the consistent ascent of ELAM, which now sits in third place in the polls with support ranging between 12 and 14%. ELAM gained traction largely due to the internal problems of DISY and the rise of immigration on the political agenda, which has become the top concern for Cypriot voters according to Eurobarometer surveys, followed closely by economic issues such as high prices and the rising cost of living.

Once again, European issues are only tangentially being addressed in the campaign, which is primarily viewed through the lens of national concerns. For instance, immigration has become relevant in relation to the EU’s failure to implement a unified policy that would effectively demonstrate solidarity with frontline states like Cyprus.

EDEK appears poised to lose its one seat, while the two historically dominant parties, DISY and AKEL, have experienced a decline in their combined strength from 68.71% in 2001 to 50.11% in 2021. Consequently, if either of these parties fails to secure more than 25% of the vote, their second seat may be at risk – a scenario that is not unexpected given current polling data shows both parties vying for the top spot with average scores only hovering around 18-20%.

The elections will also be important for President Nikos Christodoulides, who made history in 2023 by being elected without the backing of either of the two major parties. The performance of the three parties supporting his government – DIKO, DIPA and EDEK – could have an important impact on Christodoulides. At present, all three parties appear to be fairing poorly in the polls.

Considering the second-order nature of these elections, they will primarily serve as a platform to convey messages either to the government or to the parties. The outcomes will have several significant implications for Cypriot politics. Firstly, they will impact the stability of the government coalition. While they will not topple the government, they will undoubtedly affect its functionality, particularly as the President has no majority in parliament.

Secondly, they will define the extent of influence wielded by the far right, subsequently shaping the dynamics of coalition politics in the future, especially as ELAM has expressed a desire to participate in government coalitions. Thirdly, they will shed light on the current state of affairs within DISY, the former governing party, which has been grappling with internal turmoil since the 2023 presidential elections.

The Turkish Cypriot vote

Since the tumultuous events of 1963-64, which saw the Turkish Cypriots withdrawing from all government institutions, the two communities have effectively lived separate lives without any meaningful political or electoral interaction. The Turkish invasion in 1974 and the subsequent de facto partition of the island further entrenched this division. European elections stand out as the sole platform since then that brings the two communities together politically, symbolising the unified potential that the EU could offer Cyprus.

While Turkish Cypriot candidates have participated in previous European elections, it wasn’t until 2019 that a Turkish Cypriot successfully ran on a Greek Cypriot political party platform (AKEL), marking a departure from previous political norms. In the upcoming elections, the three Turkish Cypriot candidates running with Greek Cypriot political parties are expected to increase Turkish Cypriot voter participation. This, in turn, could have a significant impact on the election results and consequently on the workings of the political and party systems.

The vast majority of Turkish Cypriot voters in 2019 (4,076 out of 5,804) supported Niyazi Kızılyürek and AKEL, resulting in a 1.5% boost for the party. This highlights the electoral significance of Turkish Cypriot participation, as it could potentially sway the outcomes for parties fielding Turkish Cypriot candidates, and perhaps even influence the neck-and-neck competition between AKEL and DISY for the top spot. Notably, existing polls do not account for Turkish Cypriot voters, leaving uncertainty regarding their voting intentions and preferences.

Note: This article gives the views of the author, not the position of EUROPP – European Politics and Policy or the London School of Economics. Featured image credit: European Union