The effects of climate change have become far more noticeable in recent years, with abnormally high temperatures recorded across the world. Maria Cotofan, Karlygash Kuralbayeva and Konstantinos Matakos examine how spikes in temperature influence political behaviour and how age groups respond differently.

In recent years, there has been a noticeable rise in temperatures and extreme heatwaves across the UK and Europe. Older people may be particularly vulnerable to this, with indications of a 30% increase in heat-related deaths over the past two decades due to escalating temperatures, many of these among the old.

Against this backdrop, government climate policies have faced criticism for being insufficient and merely symbolic gestures that lack substantial and effective measures to combat climate change. There’s a growing consensus that what’s needed are not incremental or superficial policies but rather transformative climate actions. Thus, it’s crucial to examine whether first-hand experiences of climate shocks prompt voters to support specific climate policy agendas.

A common argument is that older individuals may be less inclined to support robust policies on climate change due to their shorter remaining lifespan, making the long-term benefits of mitigation less salient to them. With ageing populations across the developed world, there’s a perception that a larger proportion of older voters could impede governments from adopting ambitious climate policies, potentially influencing parties that are more likely to be supported by older citizens – such as the Conservatives in the UK – to advocate less ambitious measures.

On the other hand, older adults are among the most vulnerable groups to the health impacts of climate change, such as heat waves. Although this heightened risk hasn’t necessarily translated into greater support for mitigation policies, recent evidence points to the fact that this may be changing.

Our recent research, which is based on the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Risks That Matter 2022 survey, reveals a shift in attitudes among older people. We find that recent spikes in temperatures across OECD regions prompt older voters to recognise climate change as a more imminent threat.

Heatwaves change votes

Our findings show that after experiencing abnormally high temperatures, older people (those aged 42-64 in our sample) become more concerned about climate change, as well as about the economic costs of implementing climate change policies. Consequently, we find that they express support for policies aimed at mitigating these economic impacts.

At the same time, we find that these people reduce their backing for extreme and populist parties and increase their support for parties with environmentally conscious agendas. More precisely, our baseline findings indicate that experiencing abnormally high temperatures raises the likelihood of individuals supporting left-leaning parties by roughly 3.5%. This effect persists for two to three years postexperience, but wanes after five years.

Given that elections tend to occur in four- to five-year cycles, we expect a significant impact on future electoral outcomes. This is important because, as societies age, older voters’ preferences will carry more weight. With extreme climate events increasing in frequency and intensity, we expect to see climate-related shocks having a stronger impact on electoral outcomes, a trend that parties across the political spectrum may want to bear in mind.

Importantly, our results imply that older voters are willing to change their stance on climate change policies and lend their vote to greener and left-leaning parties. But in exchange for their political support for policies that will primarily benefit future generations, they appear to be asking for compensation or exemptions that insulate them from the costs and sacrifices required for ambitious climate mitigation.

Experiences of recent temperature shocks seem to make older voters more likely to express worries about the economic burdens associated with climate change policies, and endorse policies that address these concerns, such as those on job-related issues, energy efficiency, affordable housing and public transport infrastructure. Compensation policies such as grants for home insulation or switching to non-fossil fuel heating sources may provide incentives for older voters to support climate action by offsetting the costs or impacts they may feel.

More research is needed to understand the effect of such policies. But our results highlight the need for better understanding of these demands in the first place, and the extent to which their benefits outweigh the costs, especially if offering these compensation policies would make ambitious climate action more palatable for older populations and therefore more likely to be implemented at pace.

Young voters keep calm

In contrast to older people, our research finds that younger voters (those aged 18-41 in our sample) are less concerned about the economic costs of climate policies, and they appear more willing to accept these consequences, including, for example, higher energy bills. Our study reveals that voting patterns are predominantly influenced by older people, suggesting that extreme climate change experiences have not yet emerged as a decisive factor driving significantly increased youth participation in elections.

The lack of an effect among young voters may stem from their comparatively lower levels of anxiety about the economic effects of climate change. In other words, younger voters may be more aware of the impacts of climate change regardless of their individual experiences and, consequently, more willing to accept the costs of climate change mediation.

But the lack of response could also signify a broader sense of alienation from the political process among younger populations across OECD countries, including the UK. For example, there is notable disengagement from politics among British youth, with just 39% of 18-year-olds and only 54% of 18-24-yearolds voting in the last election in 2019, the lowest turnout among all age groups.

Despite younger adults in the UK being the group with the highest proportion who are very worried about the impacts of climate change, this sentiment has not translated into tangible increases in voter turnout or significant impacts on election results. If more ambitious climate action will increase the political participation of younger voters who feel let down by unambitious climate policies, our analysis suggests that older voters need not be alienated if proper consideration is given to the negative economic spillovers of such ambitious policies.

This public support will be of paramount importance to reach the objective of net zero within the UK’s proposed deadline of 2050. With increasing numbers of extreme weather events expected across the country in coming decades, younger and older voters may still see eye-to-eye on climate policy as long as political parties listen to their concerns.

A version of this article first appeared as How climate change concerns affect voters in the Centre for Economic Performance’s (CEP) CentrePiece magazine.

Note: This article gives the views of the authors, not the position of EUROPP – European Politics and Policy or the London School of Economics. Featured image credit: FooTToo / Shutterstock.com