Tony Blair’s resolute, unchanging, self-affirming appearance at the impotent Chilcot Inquiry reminded us of the Politician’s Virility Dilemma. If they change their minds or admit fault then they are seen as weak. If they stick to their guns they are seen as strong but wrong. We in the media and the public can enjoy 20-20 hindsight while those who make history are doomed to live in it.
As Paul Staines so crisply put it, the Chilcot Inquiry will change nothing and nobody will change their minds. Indeed, “for the political classes [the Blair hearing at Chilcott] is the Super-Bowl of political self-justification.”
Of course, many journalists and voters have changed their minds about the invasion of Iraq. Or at least, there has been a remarkable re-framing of the story. It is often ignored that at the time just about everyone thought it likely that Saddam had WMD – that wasn’t really the issue. The argument was over what to do about it. And the real damage was done not by the invasion but the aftermath. I don’t remember anyone talking about that at the time, though now everyone claims they knew we were unprepared for the Post-Saddam situation.
Likewise, the detail of the dodgy dossier. We obsess about particular lines now but at the time it was a small part of a much wider campaign to convince the public and MPs. If anything, the government was hoist by the petard of its excessive attempts to provide empirical evidence when what was at stake was a political and military issue not a factual problem.
One of the most convincing critics of Blair is Whitehall scholar Peter Hennessy who has shown how this was a failure of the ‘process’ of government and leadership rather than some moral crime. Cabinet government dissolved, the party machine broke down and Whitehall collapsed. I think that version is about right and it reflects more generally on the problems with British political administration at present. We have both inefficient and undemocratic governance.
The media also stands accused of failing to spot the lack of evidence for the war and not challenging the Government’s case. This is patently not true. Go back to the time and you see massive coverage of the anti-war demonstrations and regular peace-nic editorial across the press and especially in the Independent, Guardian and Mirror. Likewise, there were journalists such as David Aaronovitch who effectively campaigned for the invasion as an act of liberal interventionism, not lapdog obedience to the Bush White House.
And how much can the media do anyway?
I was at Channel 4 News at the time and our diplomatic editor Lindsey Hilsum spent many weeks touring around Iraq trying to find the WMD evidence in situ. I remember how puzzled Lindsey was when I spoke to her on the phone from our London newsroom about the story. Most of the experts, diplomats and politicians were saying that there were nasty things lurking in hangers or bunkers somewhere in the Iraqi desert. But what she saw on the ground told a different story.
As she explains in a very good article about her coverage, it took even a great journalist like Lindsey a long while to work out that there was no threat from WMD – and by then it was too late.
And of course some of us took different views at different times.
Of course, a good journalist should be able to change his mind and should always seek to ask critical questions from every ideological vantage point. I remember sitting next to Jon Snow to watch Colin Powell at the UN giving the speech that convinced the world that Saddam had WMDs. (That speech was, of course, far more important than the Dodgy Dossier, but that is just another reminder of how London-centric the chattering classes are when they consider history). Jon was very anti-Bush and anti-War but he (and I) were convinced by what Powell said. That didn’t stop Snow later going on to get one of the key scoops showing how we were misled over the Intelligence in the UK.
In the end politicians are the suspension system for our society. They have to ease the ride for the public over the bumps in the road of events. They have to constantly adjust their views to allow for changing circumstance. Politicians are supposed to drive the vehicle of state in an agreed direction, but we are happy for them to take a short cut or two without telling us. We citizens sit in the back of the car and don’t want to be thrown around all the time. As long as we get there – who cares? With Iraq it is clear that all of us – not just our driver – have been involved in a rather nasty little accident.
My distinct impression is that Tony Blair deliberately short-circuited the process of government because he was utterly convinced that he was right and was doubtful that the Cabinet, fully informed and given the chance to discuss things in full, would come to the same mind as him. In that case, the “failure” was not his but his colleagues – a failure to restrain him and assert themselves – though I would see that as a moral crime as well, given the reality of war and what inevitably ensues when you decapitate a state.
Blair’s terminology is interesting. He likes to say “I took a view that”, when all he really means is “I thought”; and “It’s a judgement” when he means “It’s a matter of opinion.” He tries to disguise the fact that, essentially, he set his own opinion up against that of his colleagues. And he then selected an ad hoc cabinet to suit that opinion.
One other thing: when you say that “just about everyone thought it likely that Saddam had WMD”, perhaps you should explain what “everyone” you have in mind. I suspect, mainstream journalists, politicians and diplomats. My recollection is that there were plenty of informed voices saying that Saddam did not have an active WMD programme. Scott Ritter was one, I seem to recall, and Hans Blix seemed to be coming to the same conclusion. I remember vividly thinking at the time that the “45-minute” claim was spurious, because it was so obviously so lacking in detail. It bemused me that so many MPs seemed to be impressed by it. However, having watched Blair yesterday I think I can understand why: he does have an extraordinary capacity to convince you that he is telling the truth, even if on later reflection you realise that none of his arguments hold any water.
His testimony to the Chilcot Inquiry yesterday prompted several thoughts. Surely, after his remarks about Israel, he can have no credibility left as an even-handed peace envoy in the Middle East. His talking-up of war with Iran made me profoundly thankful that he is no longer anywhere near the levers of real power. And, to my surprise, I realised that he would not have enjoyed partnering Barack Obama at all. As Reagan was for Thatcher, so G W Bush really was Blair’s soulmate. After “9/11”, Blair really did become Americanised: his division of the world into good guys and not just bad but evil guys; his apparent inability to understand his enemies’ point of view, whether al-Qa’ida or Saddam; his contempt for international law and his admiration for naked (American) power; his belief that the application of extreme violence can make the world a better place – all very (Republican) American, and – oddly – all very unChristian.
I think it would be a shame if you reduce the whole process of governing to one of ‘process’ by which you basically mean incremental change where nothing dramatic ever happens save for a few potholes in the road.
Why should politicians have to constantly adjust their views to fit whatever comes along? What if their views were right in the first place? And isn’t that kind of light-weight flip-flopping exactly the kind of thing that most people do not like in their politicians.
What this really means is accepting things the way they are and accommodating yourself to reality. But if you think reality could be better or different, why not set about to change it? Sometimes the perceived reality needs a good kick to make people realise what else is possible, as Obama’s run for the presidency showed.
And if you think that human rights are ok for Britain, but draw a dotted line on a map and call it an international border and now all of a sudden we are expected to lose all sense of morality and allow all kinds of despicable acts to be committed there without it troubling our consciences then that is the kind of ‘accommodating reality’ I could well do without, thanks!