Former (and potentially future) US President Donald Trump has been found guilty of 34 counts stemming from payments, and the attempts to cover up these payments, made to Stormy Daniels during the 2016 presidential election campaign. Peter Finn gives some initial analysis on the verdict.
- This article is part of ‘The 2024 Elections’ series curated by Peter Finn (Kingston University). Ahead of the 2024 election, this series is exploring US elections at the state and national level. If you are interested in contributing to the series, contact Peter Finn (p.finn@kingston.ac.uk).
Hyperbole is part and parcel of politics and campaigning, with the importance of specific policies and events often overstated. Yet, the guilty verdict against former (and potentially future) US President Donald Trump is truly historic. Below I note four points that emerge from Trump being found guilty on 34 counts related to payments made to adult film star Stormy Daniels during the 2016 presidential election campaign.
A truly historic event
Trump was found guilty of almost three dozen charges brought by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg. Nothing remotely like this has ever happened to a former US president. This is truly unprecedented, no further hyperbole or exaggeration needed. Long after much of the 2024 presidential campaigns are forgotten (and irrespective of what happens next), books, theses, and countless academic articles will pick over every nuance of the trial.
The biggest (political) own goal of all time?
Politicians are only human, and often make mistakes or unforced errors. The Iowa Democratic Party, for instance, very much shot itself in the foot in 2020 by adopting technology to report caucus results that did not pass muster when it collided with the reality of technical difficulties. Likewise, former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson forgot to take photo ID to vote in recent local elections, despite being responsible for a change that created the need to have the ID to vote in the first place. However, these are small fry when compared with the decision by Trump to, via his then lawyer Michael Cohen, pay money to Daniels and then try to conceal having done so by falsifying business records. These acts may well count as one of the biggest own goals in US political history. It may have taken almost eight years for him to be found guilty, but the details of what transpired have become public over a prolonged period, adding to the drip-drip of material available to his critics and opponents.
Reinforce existing narratives
An interesting political question is whether the guilty verdict will change anything related to the 2024 US presidential election? Trump has remained popular with a core group of followers, and had favourable poll ratings before the verdict. One wonders whether the trial will become just another piece of evidence Trump’s critics use to attack him, whilst being generally dismissed by his supporters? Or could some potential voters find it hard to vote for a presidential candidate who has been found guilty of criminal charges?
This may only be the start
Trump’s legal problems are well documented, and this is not the place to speculate about what might transpire with the other cases he faces. While none of these other cases are likely to come to trial before the November 5th presidential election, they will rumble on as background noise as the campaigns continue, potentially throwing up further unwelcome surprises for Trump.
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- Featured image: “16a.TrumpBallot.USSC.WDC.8February2024” (CC BY-SA 2.0) by Elvert Barnes
- Note: This article gives the views of the author, and not the position of USAPP – American Politics and Policy, nor the London School of Economics.
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