On Saturday 13 July, an armed man opened fire on a Republican campaign event in Pennsylvania while former President Trump was speaking, injuring the former president and killing an attendee. Phelan US Centre Director, Professor Peter Trubowitz writes on what the assassination attempt on Donald Trump tells us about the current state of American politics and considers the potential impact on the 2024 presidential election race.

What does this tell us about American politics?

Among other things, the assassination attempt on former President Trump reminds us that the country is at a moment when there is much talk about political violence; it does not seem very far from the surface. This is why the January 6, 2021 US Capitol uprising was so dangerous. It set a terrible precedent and the attempt on Trump’s life will likely encourage those who embrace violence as a strategy. To be sure, most Americans reject political violence, but we have witnessed a steady rise in threats against public officials. Unfortunately, Saturday’s attack will play into conspiracy theory narratives and perhaps embolden those who see calls to violence as justified.

How will the attempt on Trump’s life impact voters?

We are likely to see a bump in support for Donald Trump in the polls in the coming days, but I don’t think the shooting will fundamentally change voters’ views of him. Most Americans have set views about Donald Trump: strongly for and just as strongly, against. One possible exception are the so-called “double haters,” who dislike both Tump and Joe Biden. They might have more sympathy for Trump in the wake of the attack. But if I had to place a bet, I don’t think this event will change the trajectory of the presidential race. It is likely to remain a close election, where the down ballot races in battleground states play an increasingly important role in mobilising voters and donors.

What effect will this have on Joe Biden’s campaign?

It is hard to see how any of this helps Biden beyond perhaps pushing questions about his age and fitness to serve another term off the front page for a while. I think for the next couple of weeks, Biden’s main job will be try to move things to a higher plane, rejecting political violence, like he did last night in his televised address to the American people. One question is whether Trump and the Republicans will meet him halfway by trying to dial down the polarising rhetoric at their convention in Milwaukee this week.

• This article is based on a 15 July interview with Professor Trubowitz on CNBC.
• Featured image: President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris are briefed by National Security Advisors and members of law enforcement agencies on the assassination attempt yesterday on former President Trump in Butler, Pennsylvania, Sunday, July 14, 2024, in the White House Situation Room. (Official White House Photo by Adam Schultz) – “P20240714AS-0546” by The White House is United States government work.
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• Note: This article gives the views of the author, and not the position of USAPP– American Politics and Policy, nor of the London School of Economics.
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