On July 15^th, the first day of the Republican National Convention, former President Donald Trump announced that Ohio Senator, JD Vance would be his Vice-Presidential running mate. Kevin Fahey looks at both Trump and Vance’s popularity in the latter’s home state of Ohio, writing that, in recent elections, Trump has outperformed the senator in 84 of 88 counties. Vance’s support for a comprehensive abortion ban may also hurt Trump in Ohio, which recently voted to protect reproductive rights. Rather than to help him on the national stage, Trump may have picked Vance as a young loyalist who can help him by drawing out large donors for his campaign.

• This article is part of ‘The 2024 Elections’ series curated by Peter Finn (Kingston University). Ahead of the 2024 election, this series is exploring US elections at the state and national level. If you are interested in contributing to the series, contact Peter Finn (p.finn@kingston.ac.uk).

Donald Trump’s choice of Ohio Senator JD Vance as his 2024 presidential running mate undoubtedly has a logic to its own. Either as a way to guarantee he’ll have a Vice President willing to overturn democratic elections, a loyal subordinate to cast tie-breaker votes in what may be a 50-50 divided Senate, a kindred spirit on (not) supporting Ukraine, and an ally on some of the former president’s plans on tariffs and trade, Senator Vance is likely to be very useful for Mr Trump in a second possible administration.

What Vance does not offer Trump are any possible electoral benefits. In the one state where the two have both competed – Ohio – Vance actually underperforms relative to Trump. Even as US political parties have weakened and the ‘personal vote’ has meant individual candidates may buck party trends, there are still powerful partisan voting patterns in Ohio that constrain both Trump and Vance. As discussions about Trump’s choice of Vance continue, it’s important to point out that he has not been added to the ticket to boost the Republican Party’s chances of winning the 2024 presidential election.

Trump and Vance in Ohio

A quick comparison (Figure 1) of the electoral coalition of the two candidates shows that both Trump in 2020 and Vance in 2022 perform well in the western and southern parts of the state, while performing poorly in the major urban metropolitan areas around Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincinnati. Statewide, Trump and Vance both won approximately 53 percent of the vote, and there is not a terrible amount of variation at the county level.

Figure 1 – Trump (2020) and Vance (2022) vote share in Ohio presidential and senate elections

Note: Brighter red indicates larger Republican vote share, deeper blue indicates larger Democratic vote share.

Yet a closer examination (Figure 2) shows that Trump performed better than Vance in 84 of Ohio’s 88 counties. In Hamilton, Montgomery, Allen, and Mahoning counties, Vance performed slightly better in his 2022 senate election, but in twelve counties, Trump over-performed Vance by 4-5 percentage points. Many of these counties are the rural counties that made up Trump’s core vote in his 2016 and 2020 presidential wins in Ohio. 

Figure 2 – Ratio of Trump (2020) to Vance (2022) vote share in Ohio presidential and senate elections.

Note: Brighter red means Trump outperformed Vance by a larger amount, deeper blue indicates Vance and Trump performed approximately the same.

Further complicating matters for the Trump campaign is Vance’s support for banning abortion in all circumstances, which is deeply unpopular even in red states such as Ohio. Last year, Ohio had two opportunities to affirm support for abortion: indirectly, in an August special election in which voters stopped the legislature from changing the threshold for constitutional amendment success, and directly in November, in which voters changed the state constitution to protect reproductive rights such as abortion, both by a 57-43 margin.

“J. D. Vance” (CC BY-SA 2.0) by Gage Skidmore

Why Vance could hurt Trump in Ohio

Vance may even open up some vulnerabilities for the Republican Party. Currently, the Democratic campaign is paralysed over potential challenges to President Biden’s re-election strategy, but if Democrats resolve that paralysis quickly and are able to make abortion – and the Trump-Vance ticket’s plans on abortion – a national mobilising issue, the Vance pick may make Trump less appealing in Ohio (Potentially replacing Biden is a critical question for Ohio, given that the state legislature may not allow a potential replacement, and therefore the Democratic ticket, on the ballot in November). Republican strategists are moving quickly to halt the party’s discussion of abortion, given that public opinion has turned sharply against the pro-life movement in the wake of the implementation of abortion bans in several states. 

The abortion referendum showed (Figures 3 and 4) that there are places where JD Vance under-performs relative to Trump and where Democrats can potentially peel away votes to make the election closer. The counties of Delaware near Columbus, Erie and Wood near Toledo, and Trumbull, Portage, and Lake near Cleveland, offer Democrats the most-likely scenario for tipping the state their way. If Democrats make inroads in these counties while holding large vote margins in the large urban counties, they might be able to win the state – or, far more likely, bring enough Democratic-affiliated voters out to keep the state’s Democratic Senator, Sherrod Brown, from losing his seat.

Figure 3 – Ratio of Vance vote share (2022) to Abortion (No) vote share (2023 November) in Ohio senate and issue elections

Note: Brighter red means Vance outperformed ‘No’ by a larger amount, deeper blue indicates Vance and ‘No’ performed approximately the same.

Figure 4 – Trump vote share (2020) compared to Vance vote share (2022)

Note: Counties above diagonal line are where Trump over-performed Vance. Size of dot corresponds to total vote in 2020 presidential election. Color of dot refers to ‘No’ share of vote in 2023 abortion referendum (November).

So, why would Trump pick Vance to be his Vice-President?

What does this mean for the Republican ticket in November? It’s fairly certain that the Republican presidential ticket will win the state and its 17 Electoral Votes. Further, Vance’s profile is low enough that he is fairly unknown in national politics, hindering his ability to help win votes in states beyond Ohio. So why would Trump pick Vance? I suggest there are three predominant reasons:

1. Trump is 78 and looking for a loyal lieutenant to help steer the Republican party in his vision, including if his health deteriorates over the next four years. This lieutenant needs to be sufficiently loyal as to not have presidential aspirations in four years either, particularly if Trump again pursues extra-constitutional means to stay in office. Vance, more so than North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum or Florida Senator Marco Rubio, fits that bill: he is in his first term in the Senate and, while a reliable commenter on right-wing media, has few legislative accomplishments. He does not seem like a natural replacement for Trump, while also being a cheerleader of Trump’s agenda.
2. The Republicans are looking to wrest complete control of federal politics for the first time since the 2018 Congressional elections. If Republicans win a Senate seat in West Virginia and the presidency – both as polls show – then they are reliant on one or two Republican Senators with a history of bucking the party to pass their agenda. Winning more Senate seats is crucial. Senator Sherrod Brown is seen as vulnerable, and could lose with Vance on the ticket, padding the GOP Senate majority. Further, House redistricting in several states may give the Democrats control of the lower chamber of Congress, but Democrats are defending two vulnerable House seats in Ohio that JD Vance could help flip, again boosting the GOP’s congressional majorities.
3. Vance is fairly well-connected with a circle of prominent billionaires, including Peter Thiel, who bankrolled his 2022 Senate campaign. According to OpenSecrets, Trump has raised $195 million for his re-election, while President Biden has raised $231 million. Further, Trump’s once-vaunted pool of small donors has dwindled substantially this election cycle, making him more reliant on large donors. Having Vance on the ticket may help draw out large donors who can bankroll his campaign.

While polls show that Donald Trump is headed toward a comfortable victory in Ohio in November – and similarly, a comfortable win in the Electoral College – JD Vance offers very little to expand the Republican Party’s electoral map or bring in new voter blocs. There may be evidence he can help boost Republican prospects in a few close races in Ohio, but the larger benefits of Vance are in his personal fealty to Trump and his ability to bring in large donations.

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