A number of things were wrong with the 2016 referendum, including the disenfranchisement of key stakeholders and the extent of misinformation by both sides. Given that referendums should be informed exercises in democratic decision-making, Bruce Ackerman and Sir Julian Le Grand explain what a referendum on the deal should look like.
We are moving to a world where the decisions of elected representatives are increasingly supplemented, or actually displaced, by referenda. Many deplore this trend and try to fight it. It would be better to welcome referenda, but to make sure they are done properly.
What was wrong with the 2016 EU referendum
There were three things wrong with the Brexit vote. The first was an absence of genuine information, creating a gap for actual misinformation by both sides. The notorious message promising a bonanza for the NHS on the Leave bus; the Remainers predicting economic catastrophe the day after a Leave vote; the benefits of immigration exaggerated by Remainers, the costs by Leavers.
The second was the over-simple choice: in or out. We now know that there are a number of alternatives to a hard Brexit at one end and Remain at the other. Not only is there the Norway (European Economic Area) option, but some form of softer deal may yet emerge from the negotiations between Teresa May and Michel Barnier.
The third was the exclusion from voting of key groups, such as Britons living for more than fifteen years in other EU countries, and the 1.5 million citizens who will be most affected by the long-run consequences of the decision: 16 and 17 year-olds.
What a referendum on second referendum should look like
So what would a serious Brexit referendum look like? First, the electorate would include 16- and 17 year-olds, and all Britons living in the EU. Second, it would offer people a manageable set of real choices. Practically speaking, three options will emerge: remain; the government’s negotiated deal; or no-deal. The referendum should ask people to select the one that makes the most sense. If none attain a majority, then the third-place choice would be eliminated and a second round would be held between the top two.
Third, the government should take affirmative steps to fill the information gap. The best way forward is suggested by social science experiments, including an early one held in Britain. In 1994, Channel Four organised an intensive discussion amongst ordinary citizens on whether the UK should become more or less engaged with Europe. The scientifically selected sample of 238 participants went to Manchester for a weekend to engage in a series of small group exchanges with competing experts for Yes and No, as well as representatives from the three major parties. At the end of the weekend, support for Britain’s increased integration into the EU rose from 45% to 60%. In contrast, support for the Euro did not rise above 35%. Before-and-after questionnaires established that participants became more knowledgeable.
Twenty years onward, majority opinion might well move in a very different direction. But there can be no doubt that the British people are thoroughly capable of a sophisticated discussion of the crucial issues. The only serious question is whether the government would be willing to take the steps required to organise a nation-wide conversation on the key issues defining the nation’s future.
On this approach, it would declare a new national holiday, Deliberation Day, that will take place two weeks before a referendum is put to the vote. D-day would begin with a televised debate between leading politicians representing the three Brexit options. After the national television show, local citizens could engage the main issues in small discussion groups at neighbourhood schools or community centres to hear their questions answered by local spokespeople for the three choices. By the end of the day, they will achieve a bottom-up understanding of the choices. D-day discussion will continue during the run-up to referendum day, drawing millions of non-attenders into the escalating national dialogue.
A Brexit referendum conducted along these lines would not be a rerun of the original. It would be quite different: a deliberative, informed exercise in democratic decision-making, one involving all those who will benefit from or suffer the consequences of the outcome. This is what twenty-first century democracy should be all about.
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Note: This article originally appeared at our sister site, British Politics and Policy. It gives the views of the authors, not the position of EUROPP – European Politics and Policy or the London School of Economics.
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Bruce Ackerman – Yale
Bruce Ackerman is Sterling Professor of Law and Political Science at Yale.
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Sir Julian Le Grand – LSE
Sir Julian Le Grand is Professor of Social Policy at the Marshall Institute, LSE.
Information is vital to improve decision making. Before any second UK vote is actioned it would be highly beneficial to know exactly what the EU intend to do first.
Perhaps the EU could also have a referendum, on what Europeans expect from Brussels and what it should look like in the future, before holding a new UK vote.
Without it the UK electorate will only have half the story.
As the EU holding a vote, even to tempt UK back in to the fold, would be highly unlikely the original vote cannot realistically be improved upon, especially when the authority of the first vote is fully appreciated.
The proposed referendum is flawed for 4 reasons.
1. Of the 3 options proposed, 2 are for Leave, but only 1 for Remain. This automatically splits the Leave vote and concentrates the Remain vote, effectively guarateeing a Remain win even if there are more votes for Leaving with or without a deal.
2. Remain has already been rejected by the electorate in the 2016 referendum and as anyone who believes in democracy will tell you, “You can’t keep having the same referendum hoping to get the result you want”.
3. Because the result of the 2016 referendum is still valid, to get a Remain option onto the ballot paper the result of the 2016 referendum would have to be declared ‘null & void’.
4. If the 2016 referendum isn’t declared invalid, then any Remain option would have to get more than the c17.4 million votes that Leave got to over-turn the result of the 2016 referendum.
And as a footnote, it took 41 years to get another referendum after the initial IN/OUT referendum of 1975. So technically, the next one isn’t due until 2057. Now there’s something to look forward to…
It’s a common routine in this debate to come up with an entirely arbitrary standard and then claim it’s an inviolable democratic principle. I’m afraid your post here falls foul of that.
Take one of your principles here as an example. You’ve claimed that any subsequent referendum would have to get over 17.4 million votes for the “remain” option for it to be valid. There are umpteen different problems with that statement. First, it isn’t a principle that’s typically applied in referendums so why it should be applied here is anybody’s guess. Second, if it had been applied before the 2016 referendum it would have been rejected by virtually the entire electorate, Brexiteers first and foremost. Third, the Leave vote in 2016 beat the “Yes” vote in 1975 by a tiny margin of 32,161 votes, and as a proportion of the population was nowhere near the same result, so your principle actually undermines the 2016 result (and if you’re going to say there’s some unspecified “time limitation” on this principle then it becomes even more tenuous). Fourth, if we actually applied this principle in a third referendum it could lead to outlandishly silly situations: e.g. 17.4 million voters participate in a third referendum, 100% of them vote for Remain, and yet using your standard this should be ignored by the government because the raw vote total didn’t match the Leave vote in 2016. Fifth, raw vote totals are an absolutely appalling standard to use at the best of times because turnout is heavily dependent on random circumstance like the weather or the time of year.
I could go on for half a day writing similar problems with this statement. One of the great problems in the Brexit debate is both sides simply throw around convenient limitations on what the public should and shouldn’t be allowed a say over and then pretend that their concern is with “democracy” rather than simply locking in their chosen policy option. I have to say I’m of the mind that a government should always have a highly compelling reason to deny its citizens a say over an issue that affects their lives in a profound way. Beyond political expediency, I can’t see a single compelling reason to deny the public a vote following the Brexit deal.
I admire your optimism that people would spend Deliberation Day engaging in fact absorption rather than opinion entrenchment.
Especially 16 year olds. ?
The three-option referendum is likely to fall foul to drift to the middle. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00221309.2014.994590
These nation changing decisions really are for well informed elected leaders to make under scrutiny rather than scantly informed members of the public.