Some have identified a wave of xenophobia in the UK since Brexit – a ‘tide of hate’ unleashed by the vote. Jim Butcher argues that EU opinion surveys suggests just the opposite, and that Britons have actually become more positive about migration in the past two years. To talk up the perceived xenophobia of Leave voters is ultimately divisive and does nothing to advance the cause of EU migrants in this country.
The idea that there is a post-Brexit tide of hate has wide currency amongst Brexit’s critics. Polly Toynbee in the Guardian has claimed that ‘Brexit supporters have unleashed furies even they can’t control’ and that post-Brexit ‘those feeling betrayed will lurch even further into racism and xenophobia’. Academic and anti-Brexit campaigner Tanja Bueltmann referred this month to a ‘wave of xenophobia sweeping across the country’. Scientist Mike Galsworthy has argued that ‘a rising tide of xenophobia’ will discourage scientists from working in the UK.

Campaigners and some on the Left who opposed Brexit have concurred. The anti-racist Monitoring Group in London said ‘no person should have been surprised to see the alarming rise of racism and the spread of xenophobia across the country so rapidly after the outcome of the Brexit vote.’ They added that ‘Brexit represents a new, unlike any other, dangerous phase for people of colour and migrants in our country.’ The same sentiments have been expressed at recent demonstrations, on social media and in the universities.
The EU collects data on a variety of social attitudes, including immigration. Whilst the spike in reported hate incidents immediately following the EU referendum has been much discussed, the EU’s data suggests that the notion of a general ‘tide of hate’ or xenophobia is, to say the least, a misreading of the mood. Its EU Barometer survey asks whether immigration (EU and non-EU) invokes a positive or negative feeling for respondents. The most recent figures from November 2016 indicate that the UK is average within the EU with regard to positivity towards immigration from EU member states (see fig.1). If there is a tide of hate, this suggests it is not solely a UK/Brexit phenomenon.
The ‘tide of hate’ thesis is explicitly linked to Brexit, so it is worth considering whether there could be a Brexit effect on the UK figures. A comparison of figure 1 (above) to figure 2 (below) indicates that the UK public actually became more positive towards EU immigration between November 2015 and November 2016, the period covering the campaign, vote and supposedly hate-filled aftermath.
The EU Barometer reporting of these figures speculates that this increased positivity towards EU immigration may be due to a greater public concern for EU residents and the feeling of insecurity arising from the government’s failure to guarantee existing EU workers residency and employment rights (note that other surveys have indicated around two-thirds of Brexit voters would welcome such a guarantee). That could be a factor, although one that itself partially contradicts the thesis.
However, the same trend extends back to the previous year too – the changes from November 2014 to November 2015 are similar to those from November 2015 to November 2016 (compare figure 3 below, and figure 1 & 2). In other words, the upward trajectory of positivity with regard to EU immigration is common to the period November 2014-November 2016, not just a feature of the period of the campaign and vote.
It is worth noting that the UK’s trajectory upwards is steeper than the average – the UK has ‘caught up’ with the EU average over the last two years. Has anyone been arguing that UK citizens have become, relatively within the EU, more positive towards EU immigration over the last 2 years? If they have, I have not seen it.
There is nothing here that supports the ‘tide of hate thesis’. We could speculate that perhaps the greater positivity correlates to the growing contact between EU immigrants as they settle, become workmates, friends and part of communities. That would be one logical explanation worth exploring. However, such optimistic scenarios regarding the British public do not fit the thesis.
The EU also collects figures for people’s positivity and negativity towards non-EU immigration. Whilst this is not directly linked to Brexit (the issue being the rights of EU immigrants), this has not stopped some commentators extending the ‘tide of hate’ thesis to apply to all non-EU nationals in the UK, BME UK citizens and the LGBT community. Yet the UK’s positivity towards non-EU immigration is significantly higher than the EU average (figure 4). Again, as per EU immigration, the trend is upwards in terms of positivity over negativity, over each of the last two 12 month periods measured. I would not describe this as a tide of love. However, to characterise the recent period as a ‘tide of hate’, linked to the EU referendum and its result, seems equally absurd.
People’s level of positivity towards the EU itself as an institution went down in the UK between November 2014 to November 2016, and, whilst not being the lowest in the EU, is significantly lower than the average. People’s views about the EU itself do not seem to be correlated with a negativity towards EU and non EU immigration. Again, a Brexit effect, whereby opposition to the EU is an expression of hatred or negativity to people from other countries, is not supported at all by the data. Whilst I would certainly not argue ‘cause and effect’ here, the relationship appears to be a negative one: greater scepticism over the EU, greater positivity towards immigration.
Perhaps it could be argued in defence of the ‘tide of hate’ thesis that there may be a sizeable and growing core of real hatred at the bottom end of the figures. But the figures do not support that – the ‘very negatives’ have fallen, both for EU and non-EU immigration, over both the November 14 – November 15 and November 15 – November 16 periods.
I am no Gradgrind when it comes to facts. They exist in a context, and are presented to bolster arguments. The data could be faulty, or indeed the values and beliefs behind the answers could be different in different countries. There will doubtless be a few caveats I have not mentioned. However, the figures must cause a questioning of the ‘tide of hate’ thesis. There simply isn’t any suggestion of it in the EU’s own figures.
There is no doubt that a small number of people exploited the aftermath of the vote to shout abuse and worse. There is also no doubt that many EU migrants in the UK felt, and feel, not only insecure but also as if some of the people they live and work with value them less than before. I supported the One Day Without Us protest at my workplace as an expression of solidarity with my EU colleagues.
Yet the assertion of a tide of hate or xenophobia does a disservice to the cause of solidarity between people of different backgrounds and nationalities. It does this by establishing a dubious moral, rather than political, division between people who voted Brexit and those who voted Remain, the former mischaracterised as irrational and hateful. This assumed xenophobic tide is to be ‘called out’, shamed, associated with the far right and not taken seriously or argued with.
Anti-Brexit campaigners, academics and journalists need to consider two questions: is the invocation of a ‘tide of hate’ really a maligning of the motives and rationality of Leave voters by association; and, more importantly, has associating the mass of Brexit supporters with a ‘tide of hate’ advanced the cause of EU and non-EU immigrants in the UK (or in the EU for that matter) one iota?
This post represents the views of the author and not those of the Brexit blog, nor the LSE.
Jim Butcher is a Reader in the School of Human and Life Sciences at Canterbury Christ Church University and the author of three books on the politics of leisure travel.
It suits the “remain” agenda to peddle this myth that the vote to leave has unleashed a wave of hatred towards people from EU member countries living and working here, it also validates other myths that they peddle, such as everyone who voted to leave did so because they are xenophobic and/or racist.
A very welcome challenge to the prejudice of the Leave voter as racist. That prejudice has had the result of curtailing public discussion as many who voted Leave are afraid they will be accused of racism and therefore keep quiet about their vote and their reasons. From my conversations, one of the main reasons people voted Leave was because they wanted there to be a public discussion about jobs, the economy and yes, immigration. That does not mean they wanted EU citizens, or citizens of any other country, to have to go home.
The trajedy is, that as the discussion opened up with the referendum, it has been in danger of being shut down by the reaction. This is an important contribution to keeping the debate open.
,
I’ve spoken to a number of eu nationals who are experiencing hatred of the go home to your own country variety! Also if you look at many leave FB sites, particularly the extreme right wing type, they are telling eu nationals to go home!
Of course anecdotal evidence far out ways properly researched evidence…
Why are you looking at Right wing web sites?
Who wants to look at that nonsense, unless they’re at one extreme of the political spectrum?
I work alongside a gang of Bulgarian painters lovely blokes friendly and hardworking paid peanuts mind you i voted leave so did the majority of my workmates how am i a racist pray tell?
The ‘statistics’ about people not feeling any more hatred or animosity towards EU citizens is all well and good, but I suspect those who have received a message of ‘vermin out’ in their letterbox will feel very differently to the feeling that ‘there is “nothing here that supports the ‘tide of hate thesis’”. Of course people are still divided about how they feel towards EU citizens (I don’t think the referendum has changed any of that), and what Jim Butcher is comparing is facts of hatred (messages in postboxes, xenophobic comments on public transport) and statistics about how people FEEL about EU contributors in general.
I also don’t believe there is a ‘wave’ of xenophobic hatred, but there is an upsurge in antisemitic and other violent incidents (proven by an assessment by the European Commission against Racism and Intolerance -but I suspect, their own statistics are going to be viewed as propaganda and ‘not real’; so you can’t win the argument… Probably those ‘experts’ we’ve had enough of too). Police figures showed a spike in hate crime reports in the weeks after the referendum in June. The number later dipped, but remained higher than 2015. Those are facts I’m afraid and cannot be brushed under the carpet.
Many in the UK population do not ‘feel’ like they associate with that (according to stats) but I’m afraid the aftermath of the referendum also opened the door to ‘many’ feeling they could acts like idiots. It’s no myth, despite what many think. Take everything with a pinch of salt, but please, do not dismiss it as a ‘handful of bad news’. You’re not doing yourself any favour by denying those. By any means distance yourself from the xenophobic and racists few (and deny any link to leave voters) but do not insult our intelligence into saying they do not exist!!
“but I suspect…” is the key phrase.
You ignore the research, and go with your suspicions.
And ironically you depict Leave voters as being prejudiced
If indeed “the UK public actually became more positive towards EU immigration between November 2015 and November 2016”, how come that the topic of limiting immigration was supposedly the premier reason for peo[le to vote Brexit?
If “the UK public actually became more positive towards EU immigration between November 2015 and November 2016” how come the government has citied this as the main reason to leave the single market and the customs union?
“how come that the topic of limiting immigration was supposedly the premier reason for peo[le to vote Brexit?”
It was not the premier reason as is immediately apparent from the opinion research carried out after the referendum by a number of polling organisations, including survey >10,000 commissioned by Lord Ashcroft.
But those who yelled ‘lies!’ at the Leave Campaign were quite happy to continue peddling the myth that the referendum was anti-immigrant. As it served their purpose and was emotionally satisfying.
Rolf, Perhaps people have become more positive towards immigration from the EU now they know it can be properly managed?
As Mark Kingsley-Williams has pointed out below, the Lord Ashcroft exit poll (~6,000 respondents, and accurately scored the 52/48 result) showed the following:
Most important reasons for their vote:
Leave voters
1. The principle that decisions about the UK should be taken in the UK – 49%
2. Best chance for the UK to regain control over immigration and its own borders – 33%
3. Little or no choice about how the EU expanded its membership or its powers in the years ahead – 13%
4. The belief that when it comes to trade and the economy, the UK would benefit more from being outside the EU than from being part of it – 6%
Sovereignty was by far the largest. And note that 2 & 3 are variants on some loss of sovereignty. Leaving the single market and most/all the Customs Union is required to regain sovereignty over immigration policy and trade deals with other countries.
Remain voters
1. The risks of voting to leave the EU looked too great when it came to things like the economy, jobs and prices – 33%
2. A vote to remain would still mean the UK having access to the EU single market while remaining outside of the Euro and the no-borders area of Europe giving Britain the best of both worlds – 31%
3. A feeling that by leaving the EU, the UK would become more isolated from its friends and neighbours – 17%
4. A strong attachment to the EU and its shared history, culture and traditions – 9%
Note that based on these answers, 1 & 2 aren’t positive endorsements of unlimited FoM from the EU, that’s 2/3 of Remainers.
British people like to feel they and their children stand a good chance of getting jobs in their own native country. I can dispel ideas that the British can easily get jobs abroad; I have a relative who has been battling for several years in Sweden to get work; they are absolutely far more racist than the UK.
With employers regularly favouring migrants over indigenous British (because they don’t want to pay the wages) and councils favouring migrants over indigenous British when it comes to housing and benefits, you should be thankful that the said British haven’t rioted more effectively and more often.
The demographics of the country have been almost irreversibly changed by uncontrolled immigration; in some city areas the real British have been all but driven out. And it’s not just to do with European country immigrants either; we are getting the dregs of third-worlders as well, simply because they come through the EU and get visas. I have no particular objection to foreigners being here, BUT I do object when our own people are going without jobs, without housing and being treated like crap in their own land. I also object to being told that I cannot complain about Muslims, about Sharia law and the constant threats of “infidel” being made to decent British folk who just actually want their country back and live peacefully.
Political correctness has gagged all but a few stalwarts and I’m personally sick to death of the “love-in” and camp-fire songs about one-world brotherhood and being nice to everyone.
It’s not news if there is no tide of hate against EU immigrants and the bread of life for the media is news.
Undoubtedly different people voted “leave” for different reasons. Like other commenters, my partner – an EU citizen from another Member State but UK resident for >30 years – testifies to an increase in the casual abuse that she receives since June 24 2016. What this tells us is not necessarily that there has been an increase in anti-immigrant sentiment, but that those people who don’t like “foreigners” now believe they have a licence to voice their resentment. They direct their wrath at strangers and so address a tourist, visiting academic, immigrant – or even a UK citizen with a “foregin” accent – equally.
So perhaps you should consider trends in “patriotic feelings” alongside those in attitudes to immigrants. In the UK Brexiteers seem – worryingly – to be using calls for patriotic effort to try to suppress dissent, but shrill nationalist sentiment is evident in rhetoric around Europe. Is a rise in patriotism evident in surveys? If so, is that accompanied by a rise in general distrust of “foreigners”? Does it implicitly legitimise the expression of “anti-foreigner” sentiment that we experience?
How refreshing!
An honest piece.
The people who really made migrants feel unsettled were the ones who kept insisting that everyone who voted to leave the EU was doing it for racist reasons, rather than being fed up with an undemocratic system run by the unelected on behalf of the unaccountable.
A large percentage of Remainiacs effectively sent a false message to immigrants that 52% of the population doesn’t like them. Absolutely untrue. Offensive to the Leave voters, and terrifying to immigrants.
I’m grateful that someone has finally pointed this out. Amazed it was someone from the LSE!
Remainiacs should be ashamed. They won’t be though.
Good work Jim
The constant scaremongering also isn’t helping EU nationals in the NHS, and is also discriminatory against the many other non EU foreign nationals who work there just as hard.
https://www.kingdomcomment.com/blog/2017/3/14/how-reliant-is-the-nhs-on-european-union-staff
interesting and one of the few fact based comments about Brexit and the views of Leave voters. I have no problem with the people (mainly), what I have a problem with is the total lack of control of, not only this but many other aspects of the running of the country for the benefit of it’s citizens.
In many ways, in the UK, EU migration and the inability to control it was the most visible aspect of the problems caused by the EU. If you asked the same question in Spain it would be the Euro and unemployment and in Greece……
I view the problem with migration as it stands in a very simple way:
If you have a bath that holds 200 ltrs of water, and it has in it 175 litres, then you are very happy, no big problem, and knowing that a little will leak into the bath and a little will leak out, the balance will be reasonable. But, if some idiot decides to open the tap and walk out of the bathroom and dumps very rapidly 50 litres into the bath, 25 litres of that will flood the floor causing problems. and that is the problem we have now, the extra 25 litres is sloshing around, causing issues with jobs (in some cases), housing, education, healthcare etc. Now, you can’t blame the 25 litres for sloshing around on the floor, it isn’t the waters fault that they are there, it’s the damn idiot who opened the tap wide.
So, don’t blame the migrants, they are doing the best for themselves and good luck to them, blame the clowns who opened the borders and allowed anyone into the country without any checks or ensuring that we have the infrastructure or jobs, to accommodate them without impacting o the existing citizens.
There is nothing wrong with the desire to live amongst those that share your same values, culture, and beliefs.
Moreover, it is the right of those people to govern themselves as opposed to being governed from afar.
Cary Michael Cox
Most people who hate don’t say so. BREXIT was plainly xenophobic. Ask any leaver to name the five main organisations of the EU and what they do. Answer: No idea, mate. Ask them what the UK visas and immigration/uk borders agency is and what it does. Answer: Never heard of it, mate. Ask them whether they are aware that the UK is entitled to return immigrants, EU or non EU, deemed undesirable. Ask them whether they are aware that there is UK democratic representation all through EU processes and decision making. Answer: you’re an idiot, mate. Everybody with a brain cell can see what’s going on, it’s obvious. They’re letting all these foreigners in and they take all our jobs, scrounge off the NHS and benefits and jump the queue for council housing. They should send them all back and block up that tunnel.
Those are the precise sentiments I’ve heard from leavers with their guard down.
Ask one of the more sanctimonious, middle class Remain voters what they think of the eurozone debt crisis, the Troika’s treatment of Greece, or the wave of far right support sweeping across the continent, and you’ll get a similarly blank look. Suggest that the EU isn’t some paradise of liberal tolerance in contrast with the xenophobic, backwards UK? (or the other side of the UK class divide, anyway) Surely not! Won’t hear it.
To be fair, I’m pretty sure the average remain voter doesn’t have that much knowledge of EU structures and processes, either. Face it, it is an institution in serious need of reform that Germany in particular doesn’t seem willing to carry out.
I think you are deluded if you refuse to see the open xenophobia people are currently subject to on a daily basis .
Friends who work on the NHS have been constantly made to feel oppressed by patients , asking them things as ‘ when are you going back home ‘ or ‘ I thought you would be gone by now ‘ sort of comments .
I also suffered a few direct racism attacks , just recently I called a costumer to introduced myself as his case was transferred to me and as soon as she heard an accent I got a very stern ‘ I do not like you , I want a British solicitor ‘ . I may add I never had anything resembling this for the 17 years I lived in England ( all my adult life ) .
Don’t be fooled my thinking xenophobic attacks are only done by tugs . It’s not a myth it’s happening .
Marta,
Maybe I’m lucky but I haven’t encountered anything like the amount of racism you describe.
Not all Remain voters are Remainiacs (using an issue for a form of manipulation) but there are significant numbers. For them, the supply of Nazis falls well short of their massive demand, so they’ve had to compensate by making up incidents.
I’ve seen this happen. Two Remainiacs that were on the same trip as me to Rumania spent an entire evening telling people how racist the Leave voters are. One insisted he didn’t even know any, then later he told the locals that he was confident that ALL leave voters are racist.
He seemed really excited with the prospect of telling our Rumanian hosts that 52% of the population hate them. Which is massively divisive and damaging. But they didn’t care, as long as they looked good by contrast.
Maybe I’m lucky, but I’ve never encountered any genuine racism. I have encountered Remainiacs who synthesised racism though
Unfortunately some people are subject to discrimination on a regular basis and it shouldn’t happen, but it does.
You have had a couple of experiences, that does not mean that there is a tide of xenophobia sweeping the country.
…Says a middle class, white bloke who clearly spends a large amount of time in central London and hasn’t got a clue what he is talking about (and possibly doesn’t even have a right to make a judgement based on cloudy assumptions and statistics).
Believe me, go into the Shires as a non-white or non-British person and there has been a palpable shift in many people’s attitude, especially the older generation and it is since Brexit.
I have have lived in the UK for a decade, I am white and affluent professional (doctor), living in London and have never thought I would never be on a receiving end of what has ensued since last year. The first few months after Brexit were hell, as at a number of ocassions, I was shouted in public transport to “go home”, got “vermin out” leaflets in my mailbox. I have also experienced serious incidents in local sport center by several black men who whenever I come there start shouting “Brexit, Brexit” and one even twice shouted to my face “f-k off b-h”,”get out of here” and “we were here first”. I have reported all these incidents to no avail. In response to the sport center incidents, I was told that nothing can be done and because the perpetrators were black, the authorities were “afraid of being accused of racism”.
For some people, Brexit related hate is very real experience, not just statistics.
Lucie,
that sounds terrible. If you’re white, how would they know what country you’re from? Do you dress in national costume or something?
Does nobody stick up for you?
Why would a group of black men be moved to be horrible to you, given the racism they have probably suffered themselves in their own lives?
If you report it to the gym and they do nothing, that is disgraceful. Please tell me the name of the gym and I will take up your case for you
Lucie – Are you seriously claiming that you have endured serious racial prejudice and physical intimidation and been told that nothing can be done because of the skin colour of your abusers? Who told you that, the police? and you just accepted it?
If you have lived here for 10 years you would be fully aware of the channels to navigate to get this addressed.
Unfortunately on every national indicator of quality of life the UK is behind Western Europe. Work related advantages open up a few thousand niche EU nationals wishing to stay on post Brexit. But to be fair…with economic growth resurging in the EU and the UK likely to fall into an economic rabbit hole of its own making with possibly the largest debt burden of any country coming crashing down, the desirability of working and living in this country is likely to evaporate by 2019.
David Murphy – If you are a Brit and haven’t already left the country, why not?